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Ten predictions for 2030

Looking ahead to 2030 here are some predictions that can eventually be thrown back at me….

1. Bloodstock writers will be bored of trying to find something interesting to write about all the major winners incorporating versions of Galileo/Dubawi and Dubawi/Galileo crosses

2. Coolmore will no longer be home to the GB/Irish champion sire. It is remarkable that they have homed the champion every year since 1990 via Sadler’s Wells, Danehill, Danehill Dancer and Galileo. However, I don’t see anything in the current roster that looks like following in those big shoes. Amazingly Galileo was their only sire in the top 10 by earnings in the UK/Ireland for 2019.

3. Coolmore will find compensation for the relative decline of their dominance in Europe with the success of their US stallions. To purchase two triple crown winners is a serious statement of intent and sooner or later, their US investments will pay off.

4. Trainers will properly embrace technology. All trainers will use wearable tech for real time data monitoring of horse health and fitness. Trainers will spend as much time looking at an app with data about the horses workouts as they did watching them gallop.

5. Winning the battle over animal welfare concerns will be the key battleground of the decade. Racing needs to not just lobby politicians, but to employ a well resourced team of social media professionals to tackle the opposing arguments. If a State such as California bans racing (and see the petition at https://www.change.org/p/governor-gavin-newsom-outlaw-horse-racing-in-california to get a sense of the arguments involved ) , then pressure grows in other areas (the domino effect), sponsors leave the sport, the overall industry shrinks and decline sets in. Greyhound racing found itself banned in most countries and it is the sport most comparable to horse racing. Racing needs to manage its PR very carefully and professionally. That applies even more so to National Hunt racing, which is a particular target for animal rights groups.

6. Chinese racing will grow but not as much as the number of articles about the new gold rush in the Chinese mainland. I wouldn’t be pinning too much hopes on this market offsetting declines elsewhere.

7. Speaking of decline- I can’t imagine Brexit doing much good for the British bloodstock industry. Firstly, there will be the practical problems that any sort of border checks and delays will cause to horse/mares travelling between Britain and Ireland. The economic shock/decline caused by Brexit will impact on funding to the sport. Perceptions matter, and if the perception is that Britain is unwelcoming to outsiders, then that will discourage foreign owners who previously overlooked the low prize-money due to the traditional prestige of British racing. The quality of British racing could quickly fall due to a lack of investment.

8. On course bookmakers could be gone by 2030. They are already on life support in most mid-week meetings and it is difficult to imagine that the traditional model will survive much longer. The decline in the use of cash merely exacerbates the issues they face. People complain about them, but they will miss them when they are gone..

9.AI will happen eventually:

AI (that’s artificial insemination not artificial intelligence for the benefit of the nerdier readers) should/will happen. If it does happen, it will not be driven by the industry but by external events. The most likely catalyst is a disease outbreak that restricts the travel of mares. In the new era of climate change awareness, the carbon cost of transporting hundreds of mares to a stallion farm rather than shipping semen straws should be re-examined. Compared with live covers, AI is

  1. Cost efficient
  2. Environmentally friendly
  3. Improves disease control
  4. Improves choice for breeders

With a global pick of stallions, even for low value mares, we can reverse the narrowing of the equine gene pool which has occurred. The ‘traditionalists’ chief concerns have been

a) the fear of huge crop sizes

b) a reduction in stallion diversity

c) the practical issue that foals conceived by AI are not eligible for inclusion in the stud book

These fears can be overcome. Taking these issues in turn:

a) Huge crop sizes are already a reality (Soldier of Fortune covered 341 mares in 2017 and 261 in 2019). The marketplace will find a level at which demand (finite) will equal the new level of supply (almost infinite).  After an adjustment period, I do not envisage the top stallions greatly exceeding some of the current crop sizes. Alternatively a cap can be put in place in terms of the maximum number of foals registered for each sire in a given year.

b) Available stallion options will increase. To take an example, Irish breeders will have ready access sons of Sunday Silence or AP Indy, without having to ship the mares to Japan or the US.

c) The rules around registrations are not unalterable and previously Kentucky considered allowing AI during a disease outbreak. Faced with the prospect of a dramatically curtailed foal crop or a legislative change, what do you think will happen?

AI is still unthinkable for many, but once it has happened, people will wonder what all the fuss was about. With a few sensible rules regarding the timelines for the use of semen after the death of a stallion and limitations on crop sizes the industry can continue largely as before. The benefits outweigh the costs.

10.Beware the impact of science/technology – The predictive tests offered by Plusvital and other equine-tech firms haven’t transformed the training and breeding world just yet. This is probably a good thing, as if they become too accurate then our traditional breeding industry model will simply collapse. Variability, uncertainty and hope are the bedrocks of our breeding industry, betting and sport( I’d like to be remembered for that quote). Good luck trying to persuade someone to buy a horse, which a test predicts (with 98% accuracy) won’t achieve a rating above 45 :). The tests may not be there yet, but there is no reason that they can’t continue to improve and if they do, then expect serious market turbulence with lots of unsaleable horses.

It may sound like the plot of an unwritten Dick Francis novel but what happens when gene editing techniques such as CRISPR are adopted by unscrupulous types on thoroughbreds? We are familiar with racehorses being tested for illegal substances but there is no testing undertaken for genetic doping. There was always an incentive to cheat in racing and there is no reason to think this avenue won’t be explored by some, given the huge potential rewards.

Conclusion:

Racing has been around for centuries but the future is uncertain and industry leaders shouldn’t be complacent that the industry will continue on as before. The Nobel Prize winning novellist John Galsworthy once said “If you don’t think about the future you cannot have one”. Incidentally you can read an interesting description of racing at Newmarket by Galsworthy at http://www.online-literature.com/john-galsworthy/country-house/4/ .

Happy New Year….

Darley, Dalham, Dubawi, Dear?- 2016 fees

Having considered Coolmore’s 2016 fees, the  next step is to look at its main rival Darley. Darley spreads its stallions across the UK, Ireland and France and the growth in its roster sees no sign of abating. To facilitate comparison of the Dalham and Coolmore rosters, I have also converted the sterling fee to euros. The weakness of the Euro compared to sterling is significant in assessing their relative attractiveness.

Stallion 2016 fee (2015 fee)

Dalham Hall Stud

Dubawi £225,000/c.€320,000 (£125,000). (2002 Dubai Millennium ex Zomaradah by Deploy)

Verdict: His merit has never been really in doubt and had a superb season with 9 Northern Hemisphere group 1 winners including King George winner Postponed, French Derby winner New Bay, Dubai World Cup winner Prince Bishop and Juddmonte International winner Arabian Queen. A consequence of all this success is a fee increase of £100,000 over 2015.It looked as if he was going to dethrone Galileo from his usual position as champion sire but ended up as runner-up. To me Galileo still has the edge over his younger rival being a much better sire of two year olds and a lot of Dubawi’s Group 1 winners have needed time to mature (a topic I will return to in future).  My own suspicion is that Dubawi’s fee was set relative to Galileo’s reputed fee of c.€300k and was deliberately set above that level. This is a case of ‘mine is bigger than yours’ (fee wise anyway :)) although in my view his fee should be less than Galileo’s (and perhaps Galileo will be €350-€400k next year). Regardless, at this rarified level, financial concerns and mere 6 figure sums hardly matter for those using the stallion.

Golden Horn £60,000/c.€85,000 (NEW) (2012 Cape Cross ex Fleche D’or by Dubai Destination)

Verdict: Had an outstanding season on the track winning the Derby, Arc, Eclipse and Irish Champion Stakes. However his opening fee looks expensive to me. I would quibble with his lack of two year old form (just one narrow maiden victory) and the quality of his female line (highly respectable as his unraced dam unraced is a half sister to Coronation Stakes winner Rebecca Sharp but not an elite female line). His surprise defeat in the Juddmonte International, his erratic behaviour in the Irish Champion Stakes when he should have been disqualified and his defeat on merit by Found in the Breeders Cup also might have been expected to knock some more off his fee.  Given that he is an unproven stallion, his stud mate New Approach is better value and when you convert his fee to euros I think he compares unfavourably with Australia.

New Approach £60,000 €85,000 (£80,000) (2005 Galileo ex Park Express by Ahonoora)

Had a sensational first crop with three two year old winners at Royal Ascot (Dawn Approach, Newfangled and Tha’Ir) and his first crop progressed to annexed the 2000 Guineas (Dawn Approach), the Oaks (Talent) and he sired the Derby runner-up (Libertarian). He has not maintained this momentum and his fee has fallen back from the £80,000 he stood for in 2015 and 2014. This is a reasonable adjustment and although he is still not cheap but he is a fine stallion and is worth his hefty fee.

Iffraaj £22,500 €32,000 (£22,500) (2001 Zafonic ex Pastorale by Nureyev)

A one time champion first season sire by number of winners and a good sprinkling of high quality performers has seen his fee rise from its initial modest level. Had a pretty good year in 2015 with St James Palace Stakes runner up  Latharnach and some high quality two year olds in Group 2 winner Ribchester and Fillies Mile runner up Nathra. That said he never strikes me as a likely sire of a superstar and he seems pricey to me particularly in Euro terms as I would value him at no more than €20,000.

Sepoy £15,000 €21,000 (£15,000) (2008 Elusive Quality ex Watchful by Danehill)

A Golden Slipper winner at two who trained on to be a top sprinter at three. Sons of Elusive Quality have been largely disappointing at stud (Raven’s Pass, Smarty Jones, Elusive City) and at the price I wouldn’t be rushing to take a chance on this being an exception to that rule nor the modest record of most reverse shuttlers.

Poet’s Voice £12,000 €17,000 (£12,000) (2007 Dubawi ex Bright Tiara by Chief’s Crown)

A first crop son of Dubawi who won the Group 2 Champagne Stakes and two and went on to defeat a strong field that included Makfi and Rip Van Winkle in the QE2 stakes at three. Had his first runners this season and they performed reasonably well and more or less in line with expectations if you hold the belief that his progeny will progress with age (which I do). As a superior racehorse, and a son of an exceptional stallion with reasonable early runners he seems fairly priced to me.

Brazen Beau £10,000 €14,000 (NEW) (2011 I am Invincible ex Sansadee by Snadee)

A top Australian sprinter by a son of Invincible Spirit. I’m not sure we need all these reverse shuttlers but he earned a Timeform rating of 127 so his merit as a racehorse is not in doubt. If European breeders want to believe that overseas sprinters are genetically superior, who am I to stop them spending their money 🙂

Farhh £8,000 €11,000 (£12,000) (2008 Pivotal ex Gonbarda by Lando)

An interesting horse, lightly raced with only 10 runs over 4 seasons. His only two runs as a five year old resulted in wins in the Lockinge Stakes over a mile early in the season and the Champion Stakes over 10 furlongs at the end of the season. Won his only runs at two and three and showed progressive form and at four when he was placed in a number of Group 1’s. His dam was dual Group 1 winner in Germany and is compiling a nice record at stud with Farrh’s full brothers Racing History and Basem both being Group performers in 2015. This is also the family of Fame and Glory and Legatissimo. His pedigree with its single strain of Northern Dancer via Nureyev and absence of Mr Prospector makes him almost an outcross for the majority of Britain’s mares. I’m a lifelong fan of Pivotal but I don’t quite buy the description of him used by some advertisers of him as a proven sire of sires. This claim is based on the respectable record of Kyllachy and the good initial results of Siyouni whilst ignoring Excellent Art, Falco, Virtual, Windsor Knot etc. Farhh was a superior racehorse, but his lack of precocity might hinder his commercial appeal. Overall though his fee is not unreasonable at least until we have evidence to the contrary from the track.

Helmet £8,000 €11,000 (€10,000) (2008 Exceed and Excel ex Accessories by Singspiel).

Another Aussie Group 1 winner at two who trained on to land further group 1 success at three. His success of his sire Exceed and Excel has a lot to answer for in terms of all of these reverse shuttlers 🙂 His pedigree is very European looking from a well known European ‘A’ family that includes Annaba (the filly by In the Wings not the stallion Anaaba), Anna of Saxony, Ave, Anipe etc. There is nothing objectionable about him or his fee (and I would prefer him to Brazen Beau) but he just wouldn’t be for me.

Casamento £5,000 €7,000 (€5,000) (2008 Shamardal ex Wedding Gift by Always Fair)

By a very good stallion in Shamardal and a winner of the Racing Post Trophy at two and a Group 3 at three he earned his place at stud. He will have his first two year olds in 2016 so his merit will quickly be apparent. His fee last season of €5000 seemed about right to me, £5000 seems a little pricey in comparison but not outrageous.

Outstrip £5,000 €7,000 (NEW – Darley Club) (2011 Exceed and Excel ex Asi Sempre by El Prado)

A good two year old who won the Champagne Stakes, a breeders Cup Juvenile Turf and was third in the Dewhurst to War Command. He didn’t add to his success at three or four and this is somewhat reflected in his fee. He is well bred by a great sire of two year olds in Exceed and Excel out of a Grade 1 winning mare from the speedy family of Turkish Treasure. He is being promoted as part of the Darley Club which allows breeders a free return in years 2 and years 3 and if all of these are used then you get a lifetime breeding right. Whilst this is clearly a marketing initiative to help fill less desirable members of the roster (and I wouldn’t recommend it for some of the others) in this case I think it represents a  good deal for breeders with significant potential upside. If I owned a suitable speedy mare likely to produce two year olds I would utilise Outstrip (no sitting on the fence there) and if Darley want to use that quote please give me a call to discuss a fee!).

Next week I will look at Darley Irish stallions in  Kildangan…..

Coolmore-dominance in decline?

Back in April 2010 everything must have seemed rosy down in Tipperary. Eskendereya (Giant’s Causeway ex Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew) looked set to finally provide one of their sires with a coveted Kentucky Derby victory. In Europe, St Nicholas Abbey (Montjeu ex Leaping Water by Sure Blade) was favourite for the Guineas and Derby. Galileo, Montjeu and Danehill Dancer were established members of Europes elite and the stallion roster contained plenty of unproven but exciting young stallions.

Fast forward to November and just like the Irish economy, things are looking somewhat grim despite Galileo helping them to an incredible 21st consecutive UK & Ireland sires championship. Galileo had a stellar year with Cape Blanco, Rip Van Winkle, Sans Frontiere, Lily of the Valley and three Group 1 winning 2 year olds in Play Misty for Me, Frankel and Roderic O’ Connor. It was a season comparable with any that Sadler’s Wells enjoyed in his heyday. That however is the end of the good news. After a recent stud visit one source told me that Galileo seemed to be in poor physical shape and had lost a lot of condition. If anything was to restrict his capacity to serve large books next year it would be a serious setback.

Montjeu

Montjeu had a disappointing year. St Nicholas Abbey failed to reappear after his Guineas fifth and Jan Vermeer was somewhat disappointing. Fame & Glory did add two Group 1’s but his season ended in disappointment in the Arc. Joshua Tree won the Canadian International but no obvious stars emerged from his two year old crop. He hasn’t suddenly become a bad sire but a Guineas win for St Nicholas Abbey would have helped fill one of the major gaps in his cv. The other gap is of course his relative lack of success with fillies, something which reduces his popularity with breeders.

Danehill Dancer

Danehill Dancer had two Group 1 winning fillies in Lilly Langtry (ex Hoity Toity by Darshaan) and Ave (ex Anna Amalia by In The Wings). However his results did not do enough to justify his private fee and to my mind he ranks behind Dansili, Pivotal, Dubawi and Oasis Dream amongst the top miler sires in Europe. Although they still refer to him as the best sire son of Danehill in Europe, Coolmore are aware of his limitations. This is evidenced through their use of Dansili rather than Danehill Dancer for many of their elite mares .

The Young Guns

Oratorio and Footstepsinthesand both had their first crop of three year olds. Both could have been expected to see their offspring improve with age. Both disappointed and they now seem pricey at €15000 and €12500 respectively. It would be no surprise to see either or both sold abroad.

Amongst the first season sires there were no fireworks and no Group 1 winners. Holy Roman Emperor (Danehill ex L’On Vite by Secretariat) came second to Iffraaj but there was a distinct lack of quality amongst the quantity. Aussie Rules (Danehill ex Last Second by Alzao) probably did best of the newcomers with a few Group horses included amongst his winners. Hurricane Run (Montjeu ex Hold On by Surumu) did ok considering no one really expected him to get precocious types. Ad Valorem (Danzig ex Classy Women by Relaunch) produced nothing of note and a similar comment applies to Ivan Denosovich (Danehill ex Hollywood Wildcat by Kris S) who will probably be moved on quickly.

middle of the road sires

There is nothing wrong with Peintre Celebre (fee €15,000), Rock of Gibraltar (fee 22,500) or High Chaparral (€15,000) as stallions but their limitations are evident at this stage. High Chaparral should be moved permanently to Coolmore Australia where he is so much more successful and highly regarded.

Next Year

2011 sees the first runners for Strategic Prince (Dansili ex Ausherra by Diesis) and Dylan Thomas (Danehill ex Lagrion by Diesis). It has been a number of years since Coolmore have unearthed a promising new sire and the odds are against Strategic Prince making the breakthrough. Dylan Thomas has the advantage of plenty of well credentialled mares but there is a bias against the staying sons of Danehill.

The end comes quickly

Coolmore has dominated the European scene for so long that it is unsurprising that we start to raise eyebrows at any erosion of its dominance. In 2006, 2007 and 2008 they had 5 of the top 6 stallions in the UK and Irish rankings. In 2009 they had 3 of the top 6 and in 2010 this was down to 2 of the top 6. Their stranglehold has ended.

Reasons for decline.

1.It was inevitable that the massive Arab investment in bloodstock would eventually unearth some top class stallions. This year was a very good year for Darley. Amongst their young stallions Dubawi emerged as a superstar and Shamardal had a fine year. Iffraaj took first season sire honours. King’s Best had two Derby winners in Workforce and Eishin Flash. Cape Cross produced another top class colt in Behkabad. In addition Sheikh Mohammed owns significant stakes in “independent stallions” Invincible Spirit and Pivotal who were 6th and 11th respectively in this years Irish/UK sire table. Juddmonte are sitting pretty with two outstanding young stallions in Dansili and Oasis Dream.

2. You can’t just go out a find a replacement for either Sadlers Wells or Danehill:)

3.Too many eggs in one basket. The Coolmore roster was incredibly top heavy with sons of Danehill, and except for Danehill Dancer they have failed to strike gold with them. The assertion that he is an outstanding sire of sires is open to debate in a European context. Their faith in Danehill Dancer to found a sireline via Mastercraftsman, Choisir and Choisir’s son Starspangledbanner may also prove misguided.

4. Competitors have upped their game in terms of PR, marketing and deal making. Coolmore PR is also becoming a little jaded and it is starting to invite cynicism everytime we hear AP O’Brien describe his latest winner as showing”incredible natural speed but he is so relaxed and settles so well that you could run him in either the July Cup or the Ascot Gold Cup!”

5. The Maktoum boycott didn’t help and would have influenced some breeders decisions

6. The euro sterling exchange rate rose considerably over the noughties with a particularly sharp spike in 2008. This made using Coolmore stallions more expensive for UK breeders.

7. Lack of outcross options. All of the current stallions are Northern Dancer line stallions and breeders will want more options in time

The future

A world leader like Coolmore doesn’t just suddenly disappear into oblivion. Galileo is still only 12 and is poised for a period of dominance. However apart from Montjeu the supporting cast appears weak and similarly their American roster is unexceptional apart from Giants Causeway. However they still have the financial resources to buy the best yearlings and the best trainer in the world to manage them. The ending of the partnership with Johnny Murtagh indicates the pressure that is on everyone to produce results- 14 Group 1 wins this year was still deemed a disappointing year. Their dominance might be in relative decline but they are still the best in the game.

A vintage crop?

When we think of races involving horses that became successful stallions, the standout event is the 1984 French Derby that famously saw Darshaan defeat Sadler’s Wells and Rainbow Quest.  The 1996 July Cup won by Anabaa, had Danehill Dancer and Pivotal back in fifth and sixth places.  It is early days yet, but we might soon be adding races from the 2005 season to the above list as the likes of Dubawi, Shamardal,  Oratorio, Motivator and Footstepsinthesand were all in their classic year, whilst Azamour was enjoying a very successful four year old season. Arakan never competed against the aforementioned horses but he is also enjoying a good start with his first three year olds.

The above thoughts are prompted by the results of the French 2000 Guineas which resulted in a 1-2-3 for second season sires with Lope de Vega (by Shamardal), defeating Dick Turpin (Arakan ex Merrily by Sharood) and Shamalgan (Footstepsinthesand ex Genevale by Unfuwain). Following on from the classic successes of Dubawi’s offspring Makfi and Worthadd and some promising results for Azamour and Oratorio, it looks as if we have an unusually large number of promising sires coming on stream at once. It is much too early to be dogmatic about any of these sires but we can make some reasonable assumptions.

1. Arakan is the least likely to succeed. In one sense he has already surpassed expectations and he has sired a horse (Dick Turpin) of superior racing merit to himself. Arakan never won above Group 3 level despite being kept in training until the age of five, and as a son of Nureyev (who many regard with suspicion as a sire of sires) he didn’t immediately appeal as a likely sire success. The challenge will be to remain above the radar for the next few years until he can hopefully capitalise on the success of Dick Turpin.

2. Motivator has been plagued by bad luck. Injury restricted his first crop size and he has now missed the 2010 breeding season.  He had some promising two year olds last year notably Pollenator and Prompter and he seems capable of getting a decent horse but in a fickle market place he needs a big horse to appear quickly.

3. Azamour seems the best source of quality stamina at this stage. Despite being a son of Night Shift who sired more than his fair share of sprinters the early signs are that Azamours progeny will stay as well as he did himself. To date he has sired two Derby trial winners in Azmeel and Puncher Clynch. Eleanora Duse also ran well when a close third in the Musidora Stakes.

4.  Darley are currently outscoring Coolmore amongst the younger brigade.  The achievements to date of Dubawi outrank those of any of the other sires listed. Shamardal has also achieved more than  Coolmore’s Oratorio or Footstepsinthesand.  Coolmore will be hoping that Steinbeck can be the big horse that Footstepsinthesand needs, whereas Oratorio looks as if he has a good spread of possible top horses with Lolly for Dolly being a contender for the Irish Guineas and Fencing Master and Beethoven could add to last years achievements.  I doubt if they are panicking in Tipperary but it does seem to be a few years since they have added a real star to their roster.

A strange sequence of events-1000, 2000, 2010 Guineas

Our friends in the States may not agree, but they have their classic programme in the wrong order. Having the Kentucky Derby as the opening classic is like having your main course first.  In Europe, we have the Guineas for starters, building up to the main course of the Derby and then we allow plenty of time for digestion, before the dessert of the St Leger.  This years Guineas weekend belonged to the masters of fine dining, the French.

The 2000 Guineas- Derby pointers

The hope and hype from Ballydoyle was that St Nicholas Abbey would continue his unbeaten run and ultimately become the first triple crown winner since Nijinsky in 1970. Alas for his followers, the wait for a son of Montjeu who can excel over a mile will continue. However, unlike everything I’ve read elsewhere I thought he ran a perfectly satisfactory Derby prep and I think that the 4-1 now available for Epsom is good value. In fact, if he had won the Guineas I would have been a little more concerned about his chances at Epsom as then there would have been a doubt that he was not a ‘typical Montjeu’ who excelled over middle distances.

Makfi- history to date

The Guineas was won well by Makfi a son of Dubawi about whom we wrote in detail in a recent post. Amazingly in the Autumn he was sold from Marcus Tregoning’s yard and put in the October horses in training sale where he fetched 26000 guineas. This is now proven to be an extraordinarily bad piece of business on the part of Sheikh Hamdens team. At a future date I will compile a list of the worst culling decisions in memory and Makfi is sure of a place near the top. He won his maiden in November at Fontainbleu before starting this season with an easy victory in the traditional French Guineas trial, the Prix Djebel. In hindsight his starting price of 33-1 was very generous and was due to a lack of punter familiarity with his young trainer Mikel Dezangles, a lack of respect for the French form and the distorted market due to the gamble on St Nicholas Abbey.

Makfi-pedigree

Makfi’s pedigree is top class. His dam Dhelaal was an unraced daughter of Green Desert.  Dhelaal is however a half sister to champion two year old Alhaarth (by Unfuwain) who has a Guineas connection as the sire of 2004 winner Haafhd. Makfi is her first foal and he was followed by a filly by Nayef. Interestingly Nayef is a half brother to Unfuwain.  Makfi’s granddam Irish Valley also produced 7 other winners apart from Alhaarth including French Group 3 winner Green Pola (by Nijinsky). Her unraced daughter Dalayil (by Sadler’s Wells) is the dam of Derby third Aqaleem (by Sinndar) who recently died having been sold to Australia in the hope of winning a Melbourne Cup. Coincidentally Aqaleem was trained in England by Marcus Tregoning and he was third in the Derby to Authorized (by Montjeu ex Funsie by Saumurez) and Green Valley the third dam of Makfi is also the third dam of Authorized. Green Valley is most commonly found throughout pedigrees as the dam of Green Dancer (by Nijinsky) who won the Observer Gold Cup (now the Racing Post Trophy) and the French Guineas before becoming one of the best sire sons of Nijinsky. Green Valley has the enviable record of having 13 winners from her 14 foals and she herself is a daughter of Sly Pola who was a flying two year old who won the Prix de l’Abbaye. This is a family that keeps producing high quality performers and Makfi has certainly upheld the family tradition.

Dubawi is doing everything right as a stallion.  Makfi is his second classic winner in recent weeks as Worthadd (x Wigman by Rahy) won the Group 3 Italian Guineas and he has prospects of further classic success with recent Group 3 winner Anna Salai ( x Anna Palariva by Caerleon) in the French 1000 Guineas.

The 1000 Guineas

This years 1000 Guineas was full of controversy. There was a very significant draw bias which meant most of the field were at a huge disadvantage.  First past the post was Jacqueline Quest (by Rock of Gibraltar ex Coquette Rouge by Croco Rouge), however Tom Queally’s mount was deemed to have interfered with Special Duty (Hennessy x Quest to Peak by Distant View) and the placings were altered. Again, for those who like coincidences, Jacqueline Quest’s sire Rock of Gibraltar benefitted from Hawk Wing’s poor draw (and rider)when he won the 2002 running of the 2000 Guineas and Special Duty ‘s granddam Viviana is a daughter of the last English Guineas winner to be disqualified, Nureyev. Furthermore Special Duty’s owner, Khalid Abdullah also owned Known Fact who was awarded the race on the disqualification of Nureyev.

 I wrote about Special Duty’s pedigree and her chances in the Guineas after she won the Cheveley Park (see paragraph Special Duty- Omens are good) and oddly enough I also devoted a recent posting to controversial stewards decisions of which this Guineas will probably be added, although I feel the stewards today made the correct decision.

Channel 4’s coverage

Finally it might be worth noting  Channel 4’s television coverage of the stewards enquiry. John Francome got it spectacularly wrong with his repeated assertions that there was no way the result would be changed. Then during an interview with Jaqueline Quest’s owner Noel Martin, the presenter (Mike Cattermole, I think) was told that the horse was called after Mr Martin’s wife. The presenter then asked if his wife was at the races and he was told that “she died some years ago and is buried in my back garden”. An emotional owner then outlined some details of his extraordinary and often tragic recent past and mentioned how his life had been worsened by Channel 4 who made what he felt to be an unfair documentary about him.  When the revised result was announced the camera zoomed in on a distraught Mr Martin. This was car-crash television from Channel 4.

MAKFI (GB) 2007 c b
Dubawi
(IRE) 2002		 Dubai
Millennium (GB) 1996		 Seeking
The Gold (USA) 1985		 Mr
Prospector (USA) 1970
Con
Game (USA) 1974
Colorado
Dancer (IRE) 1986		 Shareef
Dancer (USA) 1980
Fall
Aspen (USA) 1976
Zomaradah
(GB) 1995		 Deploy
(GB) 1987		 Shirley
Heights (GB) 1975
Slightly
Dangerous (USA) 1979
Jawaher
(IRE) 1989		 Dancing
Brave (USA) 1983
High
Tern (IRE) 1982
Dhelaal
(GB) 2002		 Green
Desert (USA) 1983		 Danzig
(USA) 1977		 Northern
Dancer (CAN) 1961
Pas
De Nom (USA) 1968
Foreign
Courier (USA) 1979		 Sir
Ivor (USA) 1965
Courtly
Dee (USA) 1968
Irish
Valley (USA) 1982		 Irish
River (FR) 1976		 Riverman
(USA) 1969
Irish
Star (FR) 1960
Green
Valley (USA) 1967		 Val
De Loir (FR) 1959
Sly
Pola (USA) 1957

Dubious about Dubai but not Dubawi

From the 22nd of January to the 7th of February, Dubawi had six runners on the all-weather. All six won. The six victories earned the lucky owners £15,811, an average of £2,635 or $4,130 per victory. These are the amounts before deductions for the winning trainers, jockeys and stable staff and before entry fees,riding fees and travel costs are taken into account. If the owners netted £1,400 ($2,192) per victory they would be doing well.

Meanwhile in Dubai, Dubawi’s owner Sheikh Mohammed unveiled the Meydan track. Press reviews were very positive. Estimates of its construction cost ranged from $1.25 billion to $2.4 billion. It has a 1km long grandstand and seating for 60,000.  It will do well to even cover its running costs as general admission is free (but there is a charge for the grandstand). Gambling is prohibited so there is no revenue from that quarter.  It is intended as a visitor attraction and showcase for Dubai which is another way of saying that no one was ever asked to justify the cost. Meydan replaces the Nad Al Sheba track (which had world class facilities) and to me this development represents the most obscene folly and waste of resources imaginable.

 It may not be considered appropriate to criticise the man who has invested more than anyone else in the racing industry for the past three decades but this was utter madness.  In order to pay for his monument to folly Sheikh Mohammed will have to win one million races on the all-weather. Is there a better indicator of the wasteful excesses of the middle-eastern rulers and the pitiful prize-money in the UK, than this fact?

None of Duabwi’s 5 individual winners (Duellist, Monterosso, Your Lad, Ostentation and Solstice) are likely to become celebrated names in the history of the turf. However signs are promising for Dubawi to become a significant new stallion from what looks like becoming an exceptional crop of stallions foaled in 2002 (others included Shamardal, Oratario, Footstepsinthesand and  Motivator). In addition he looks like he will overtake Nayef, Medicean and Zamindar as being the best Mr Prospector line stallion (with runners to date) standing in Europe.

Dubawi’s Racecourse Career

Dubawi was the first of Dubai Millennium’s offspring to appear on the racetrack and no doubt it was very pleasing to Sheikh Mohammed to see him make a winning debut at Goodwood in June. He followed up in the Group 3 Superlative stakes at Newmarket and concluded his unbeaten two year old season with a victory in the Group 1 National Stakes at the Curragh. His victories had been achieved on ground that varied from good to firm to yielding at the Curragh. He went into winter quarters as a leading classic prospect and indeed such was their regard for Dubawi, Godophin went and purchased Berenson who was runner-up in the National Stakes.  Berenson became another victim of the ‘big blue hole’ that is Godolphin and was never seen on the racecourse again.

Dubawi wintered in Dubai and such was his work and performance in some of Godolphins private trials that he started favourite for the 2000 Guineas. He finished fifth behind Footstepsinthesand but was beaten only three lengths. His defeat was blamed on the good to firm ground. He resumed winning ways and achieved an impressive classic success in the Irish Guineas on good ground, defeating Oratario by two lengths. He was then sent to Epsom where he ran creditably to be third behind Motivator, but it was obvious that 12 furlongs was farther than optimal. Given a break until August he reappeared in the Jacques le Marois and he put up his best ever performance in defeating Whipper, Valixir and the previously undefeated Divine Proportions. Dubawi was next seen in the QEII at Ascot and he was made favourite and expected to wrap-up the title of European champion miler. Instead he was beaten 3/4’s of a length by the five year old Starcraft with many people questioning Frankie Dettori’s tactics.

That proved to be Dubawi’s final racecourse appearance. He never made the Breeders Cup and retired as the winner of five of his 8 starts including three Group 1’s. He had shown brilliance but also quirkiness as he had drifted across the track on a number of occasions (a tendency he shared with another son of Dubai Millennium now at stud, Echo of Light). He seemed versatile as to the going with only firm ground (as in the Guineas) being unsuitable.  He was clearly a brilliant miler, he had shown guts in running well over 12 furlongs at Epsom and it was surprising that he was never asked to run over 10 furlongs, a distance that would have seemed ideal for him.

Pedigree

As could be expected of any representative of Dubai Millennium’s only crop, Dubawi owns an impressive pedigree. His dam Zomaradah went from winning a maiden to winning the Italian Oaks. She subsequently maintained a high level of form adding Group successes in the EP Taylor stakes, the Royal Whip and the Premio Lydia Tesio and she finished a close third in the 1999 Breeders Cup Fillies & Mares Turf. Zomaradah ranks as the best offspring of Deploy (by Shirley Heights)who was runner-up in the Irish Derby and who was just one of the many celebrated offspring of Slightly Dangerous.

Dubawi’s granddam Jawaher ran five times without success but she was a daughter of High Tern who produced Derby winner High Rise (by High Estate by Shirley Heights).  Dubawi’s 4th dam Sunbittern is the dam of classic placed High Hawk (by Shirley Heights) and High Hawk was subsequently dam of In The Wings. No doubt all these Shirley Heights connections led to the selection of Deploy as a mate for Jawaher.

Dubai Millemmium left behind only 56 foals before his premature death. Dubawi was his only Group 1 winner and he was supported by the Group 2 winner (and nutcase) Echo of Light and Group 3 winner Belenus. After his death Sheikh Mohammed set about buying all the offspring of his favourite horse.  In hindsight with 9% black type winners Dubai Millennium had the makings of a very good but unexceptional sire given the opportunities he was afforded.

 Dubawi’s stud career to date

Dubawi’s first runners last year saw him crowned champion first season sire by winners (34). In addition to quantity his first crop included Group 2 winners Poet’s Voice (ex Bright Tiara by Chief’s Crown) and Sand Vixen (ex Fur Will Fly by Petong). This crop was conceived off an initial fee of £25000 and this remained his fee in 2007. He spent the 2008 season in Kildangan in Ireland at €40,000 before returning to Dalham Hall for 2009 season at a fee of £15000.  His initial success has seen this rise ot £20000 for the current season which seems quite reasonable to me. Dubawi has also shuttled to Australia and his first crop of two year olds are also now making a mark with Cellarmaster recently winning a Group 3 in New Zealand and finishing runner-up in a Group 2.

Conclusion.

It would be foolish to put too much weight on a flurry of low level winners at this time of the year. However it is certainly encouraging that Dubawi is maintaining his momentum as his runners mature from two to three.  As a sire he can offer breeders a very good prospect of getting a winner and a reasonable prospect of a high class winner at that.  The best is yet to come and if Sheikh Mohammed wants to take his mind off Dubai’s debt crisis and his own profligacy he can console himself with the thought that he controls one of the most promising young stallions in Europe.

 

 

DUBAWI (IRE) 2002 c b
Dubai
Millennium (GB) 1996		 Seeking
The Gold (USA) 1985		 Mr
Prospector (USA) 1970		 Raise
A Native (USA) 1961
Gold
Digger (USA) 1962
Con
Game (USA) 1974		 Buckpasser
(USA) 1963
Broadway
(USA) 1959
Colorado
Dancer (IRE) 1986		 Shareef
Dancer (USA) 1980		 Northern
Dancer (CAN) 1961
Sweet
Alliance (USA) 1974
Fall
Aspen (USA) 1976		 Pretense
(USA) 1963
Change
Water (USA) 1969
Zomaradah
(GB) 1995		 Deploy
(GB) 1987		 Shirley
Heights (GB) 1975		 Mill
Reef (USA) 1968
Hardiemma
(GB) 1969
Slightly
Dangerous (USA) 1979		 Roberto
(USA) 1969
Where
You Lead (USA) 1970
Jawaher
(IRE) 1989		 Dancing
Brave (USA) 1983		 Lyphard
(USA) 1969
Navajo
Princess (USA) 1974
High
Tern (IRE) 1982		 High
Line (GB) 1966
Sunbittern
(GB) 1970