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Victor Sheahan

Predicting Sales Returns

The Keeneland sales are critical to the US bloodstock industry. When analysing the sales, industry experts often focus on the strength of the buying bench which depends on the presence or otherwise of European, Arab, Japanese and domestic buyers. The experts debate the impact of variables such as changes to exchange rates or tax charges, the size and perceived quality of the catalogue, or tinkering with the sales structure through select sessions. The presence of the offspring of star stallions or fashionable stallions may also be invoked as a way of explaining the likely sales outcome. These factors are real and do have an impact but the best indicator currently available is much more straightforward-The Dow Jones Index. I consider the issue in detail in the September edition of International Thoroughbred magazine. To read the article click here

The importance of birth dates

Studies have shown that a horses birth date has only a marginal impact on its subsequent racing performance. It follows that it should therefore be of little relevance to the sales price achieved.  I put this assumption to the test in this month’s International Thoroughbred magazine.  To read the article follow the link http://issuu.com/international_thoroughbred/docs/aug_issuu and go to pages 44-46

Pour Moi

Pour Moi’s win in the Derby was further proof that Montjeu is the pre-eminent sire of Derby colts in Europe. Galileo is enjoying a stellar year but Montjeu is still to my mind a better bet to throw a top middle distance colt.  Pour Moi’s performance at Epsom was all the more meritorious as he sweated up quite a lot lot beforehand and Mickael Barzalona stood up in the irons having perhaps misjudged the finishing line.  The sustained run of  Pour Moi was impressive as he made up a lot of ground in the last two furlongs and it reinforced the visual impression he gave in the Prix Greffulhe of a horse with a serious turn of foot.

Pedigree Assessment

Montjeu’s major Derby record is seriously impressive. Below is a full list of his Derby and Irish Derby runners to date. Six individual Derby winners since his first crop of three year olds in 2005 (3 Epsom and 3 Irish) is an exceptional record. Breeders have their reservations about Montjeu based on concerns over temperament and the relative failure of his fillies, but the regularity of his production of top class colts should outweigh these concerns.

Dam- Gwynn

Pour Moi’s dam Gwynn was unraced but she comes from an outstanding family and it is easy to see why she was sent to Montjeu.  The Sadler’s Wells Darshaan cross has produced countless top class individuals and Gwynn herself produced Gagnoa (by Sadler’s Wells) who was a dual Group 3 winner and twice a runner up in Group 1 company (the Prix Saint Alary over 12 furlongs and the 10 furlong Prix de Diane aka the French Oaks). Pour Moi’s second dam Victoress was a winner in France but an unremarkable broodmare, producing just 2 winners from 10 foals.  However once we hit the third dam, the winning Northern Dancer filly Royal Statute , the family starts to produce some top class individuals.   Royal Statute is the dam of Awaasif (by the 1974 Derby winner Snow Knight) a winner of the Yorkshire Oaks and close third in the Prix de l’Arc.  At stud she was the dam of a classic winner in Snow Bride (by Blushing Groom) who was awarded the 1989 Oaks on the demotion of Aliysa (ironically by Darshan) for a failed drugs test.  At stud Snow Bride become dam of the 1995 Derby, King George and Arc winner Lammtarra (by Nijinksy) so this is a family with plenty of classic connections.

Konafa (by Damascus)  another daughter of Queens Statute was placed in the 1000 Guineas and started her own dynasty. She is dam of Korveya (by Riverman) a Group 3 winner who achieved renown as dam of champion two year old and French Guineas winner Hector Protector (by Woodman), 1000 Guineas and Champion Stakes winner Bosra Sham (also by Woodman) and French Guineas winner (Shanghai by Procida).

Pour Moi’s 4th dam Queens Statute was unraced but was the dam of Canadian Oaks winner Menedict by (Menetrier) and a Candadian champion in Dance Act (also by Northern Dancer). Unsurprisingly given the names involved Queens Statute and Royal Statute were part of E P Taylors broodmare band at Windfields farm.

Conclusion

Pour Moi’s family has plenty of top class connections. Her dam Gwynn has already shown herself to be capable of producing a Group 1 performer to Montjeu’s sire, Sadler’s Wells. Montjeu is an outstanding sire of Derby class colts and the stated intention for Pour Moi is now the Prix de l’Arc a race in which his trainer Andre Fabre has a superb record. There looks to be a very strong crop of four year olds on the scene this year but they will have a worthy adversary in Pour Moi.

 Epsom Derby
 Year  Horse  Dam (Broodmare sire)  Position
 2005  Motivator  Out West (Gone West)  1st
 2005  Walk in the Park  Classic Park (Robellino)  2nd
 2005  King’s Quay  Glen Rosie(Mujtahid)  10th
 2006  Mountain  Skidmore Girl (Vaguely Noble)  8th
 2006  Papal Bull  Mialuna (Zafonic)  10th
 2006  Snoqualmie Boy  Seattle Ribbon (Seattle Dancer)  16th
 2007  Authorized  Funsie (Saumarez)  1st
 2007  Anton Chekhov  By Charter (Shirley Heights)  12th
 2008  Washington Irving  Shouk (Shirley Heights)  5th
 2008  Alessandro Volta  Ventura Highway (Machiavellian)  6th
 2008  Frozen Fire  Flamingo Sea (Woodman)  11th
 2008  King of Rome  Amizette (Forty Niner)  12th
 2009  Fame and Glory  Gryada (Shirley Heights)  2nd
 2009  Montaff  Meshedd (Gulch)  12th
 2010  Jan Vermeer  Shadow Song (Pennekamp)  4th
 2010  Victor Delight  Apache Star (Arazi)  7th
 2011  Pour Moi  Gwynn (Darshaan)  1st
 2011  Recital  Dibenoise (Kendor)  6th
 
 Irish Derby
 Year  Horse  Dam (Broodmare sire)  Position
 2005  Hurricane Run  Hold On (Surumu)  1st
 2005  Scorpion  Ardmelody (Law Society)  2nd
 2005  Walk in the Park  Classic Park (Robellino)  8th
 2006  Mountain  Skidmore Girl (Vaguely Noble)  6th
 2006  Land Before Time  Last Spin (Unfuwain)  13th
 2008  Frozen Fire  Flamingo Sea (Woodman)  1st
 2008  Alessandro Volta  Ventura Highway (Machiavellian)  4th
 2008  Washington Irving  Shouk (Shirley Heights)  11th
 2009  Fame and Glory  Gryada (Shirley Heights)  1st
 2009  Drumbeat  Maskaya (Machiavellian)  11th
 2010  Jan Vermeer  Shadow Song (Pennekamp)  3rd
 2010  Victor Delight  Apache Star (Arazi)  7th

2005

POUR MOI (IRE) 2008 c b

Montjeu
(IRE) 1996
Sadler’s
Wells (USA) 1981
Northern
Dancer (CAN) 1961
Nearctic
(USA) 1954
Natalma
(USA) 1957
Fairy
Bridge (USA) 1975
Bold
Reason (USA) 1968
Special
(USA) 1969
Floripedes
(FR) 1985
Top
Ville (IRE) 1976
High
Top (IRE) 1969
Sega
Ville (USA) 1968
Toute
Cy (FR) 1979
Tennyson
(FR) 1970
Adele
Toumignon (IRE) 1971
Gwynn
(GB) 1997
Darshaan
(GB) 1981
Shirley
Heights (GB) 1975
Mill
Reef (USA) 1968
>Hardiemma
(GB) 1969
Delsy
(FR) 1972
Abdos
(FR) 1959
Kelty
(FR) 1965
Victoress
(USA) 1984
Conquistador
Cielo (USA) 1979
Mr
Prospector (USA) 1970
K
D Princess (USA) 1971
Royal
Statute (USA) 1969
Northern
Dancer (CAN) 1961
Queen’s
Statute (USA) 1954

Sadler’s Wells- a tribute

It’s almost a month since Sadler’s Wells died.  He was outstanding in every respect as racehorse, as a sire, as a broodmare sire and now as a sire of sires.  A book would be required to do proper justice to his impact (and I don’t have time for that) , so I will have to restrict myself to selecting a few of his more remarkable achievements, listed in no particular order

1. That first crop of colts.

In total his first crop  was numbered in the mid fifties of which just less than half were colts.  For six of them (In the Wings (ex High Hawk by Shirley Heights) , Old Vic (ex Cockade by Derring-Do), Prince of Dance(ex Sun Princess by English Prince) , Scenic ( ex Idyllic by Foolish Pleasure) , French Glory (ex Dunette by Hard to Beat) and Braashee ex Krakow by Malinowski) to win Group 1’s is extraordinary.  Batshoof (ex Steel Habit by Habitat) was also in that crop and he won the Tattersalls Rogers Gold Cup and Prince Of Wales Stakes which were both then Group 2’s but are now elevated to Group 1 status.  Dolpour (ex Dumka by Kashmir) won the Group 3 Gordon Richard Stakes and was only beaten a head in the Champion Stakes. In addition the unraced Accordion (ex Sound of Success by Successor)  subsequently found fame as a jumps sire. It was the most sensational first crop that could be imagined.

2. His Consistency

Its not easy becoming champion sire even with the benefit of large books of quality mares.  Sadler’s Wells was champion Anglo-Irish sire on 14 occasions- an all time record.  That Highflyer’s previous record had stood since the 18th century gives a sense of that achievement.  That he sired at least one Group 1 winner in each of his first 18 crops is also truly remarkable. His numbers currently stand at 2259 foals of racing age with 293 stakes winners (13%).

3. His Irish Derby Record

Sadler’s Wells has sired the winner of every Irish and English classic. His record in the Irish Derby is however particularly impressive. Six winners (Old Vic ex Cockade by Derring-Do), Salsabil (ex Flame of Tara by Artaius), Dream Well (ex Soul Dream by Alleged),  Montjeu (ex Floripedes by Top Ville),  Galileo (ex Urban Sea by Miswaki) and High Chapparal (ex Kasora by Darshaan) only tell part of the story. The 1999 edition saw him have a 1-2-3 courtesy of Montjeu, Daliapour (ex Dalara by Doyoun) and Tchaikovsky (ex Crystal Spray by Beldale Flutter) and this was bettered in 2002 when High Chapparal was followed home by Sholokhov (ex La Meilleure by Lord Gayle), Ballingarry (ex Flamenco Wave by Desert Wine) and Nysaean (ex Irish Arms by Irish River). His sons have kept up the good work with In the Wings siring the 1995 winner Winged Love (ex J’ai deux Amores by Top Ville), Galileo siring the 2007 winner Soldier of Fortune (ex Affianced by Erin’s Isle) and the 2010 winner Cape Blanco (ex Laurel Delight by Presidium) and Montjeu has 3 winners courtesy of Hurricane Run (ex Hold On by Surumu), Frozen Fire (ex Flamingo Sea by Woodman) and Fame and Glory (ex Gryada by Shirley Heights).

4. His record as sire of sires

This was once open to question- it is not any more.  Galileo has taken over his mantle as the dominant European sire and Montjeu remains the sire most likely to sire a 12 furlong Derby winner.  Barathea and In the Wings did respectably, Fort Wood produced some outstanding individuals in South Africa,  High Chapparal has done exceptionally well in the Antipodes and most surprisingly of all was the success of El Prado in the US- surprising given the abject failure of Sadler’s Wells own offspring when tried on dirt. In addition his sons such as Old Vic, Accordion, Oscar, King’s Theatre, Dr Massini and Kayf Tara have all had a major impact on the National Hunt world.

5. His National Hunt Record

Sadler’s Wells was an outstanding jumps sire.  Istabraq (ex Betty’s Secret by Secretariat) is of course one of the immortals but he was backed up by Theatreworld(ex Chamonis by Affirmed), Pridwell (ex Glowing with Pride by Ile de Bourbon), Synchronised (ex Mayasta by Bob Back) and many others that have seen him consistently feature in the top ten jumps sires.

6. His record as broodmare sire

Six times champion broodmare sire, to date he has 235 stakes winners in that capacity -more than any other sire in the history of the pattern.  Some of the multiple Group 1 winners produced by his daughters include Workforce (King’s Best ex Soviet Moon) , Conduit(Dalakhani ex Well Ahead), Music Note (AP Indy ex Note Musicale,  Henrythenavigator (Kingmambo ex Seqoyah). Youmzain (Sinndar ex Sadima),  Peeping Fawn (Danehill ex Maryinsky),  Divine Proportions (Kingmambo ex Myth to Reality), American Post (Bering ex Wells Fargo), Whipper (Miesque’s Son ex Myth to Reality), and Musical Chimes (In Excess ex Note Musicale).

7.  Leading the European renaissance

It’s easy to forget that at the time of his retirement, Europe was not the natural home for a top class stallion prospect. His contemporaries and paternal half brothers El Gran Senor and Secreto both went to stud in the States. The lure of the dollar and the yen meant that Europe had already lost or could no longer retain the best stallion prospects.  The best mares inevitably follow the best stallions leading to a further downward spiral. The success of Sadler’s Wells and his earnings put Coolmore in a very powerful position with regard to stallion acquisition and they utilised that advantage to the maximum.  His sons have continued that legacy- it is not unreasonable to claim that he can take credit for the current powerful state of the European stallion ranks.

Hurricane on a run

Hurricane Run (Montjeu ex Hold On by Surumu) was his father’s truest son. I have never seen a better example of a horse whose career almost totally mirrored that of his sire. It is worth listing their respective careers from the time of the French Derby in the Summer of their three year old careers. 

Race  
Montjeu  
Hurricane Run  
Prix de Jockey Club 
1st 
2nd 
Irish Derby
1st 
1st 
Prix Niel 
1st 
1st 
Prix de l’Arc 
1st 
1st 
Japan Cup 
4th 
na 
Tattersalls Gold Cup 
1st 
1st 
Grand Prix de Saint Cloud 
1st 
2nd 
King George 
1st 
1st 
Prix Foy 
1st 
2nd 
Prix de l’Arc 
4th 
3rd 
Champion Stakes 
2nd 
3rd 
Breeders Cup Turf 
7th 
6th 

As you will see Hurricane Run ran in 11 of the 12 races that his sire contested- an incredible statistic. They differed in that Hurricane Run did not contest the Japan Cup at the end of his three year old season.  In addition their runs  in the French Derby are not entirely comparable as that classic was shortened in distance to 10 furlongs in 2005, a change that almost certainly cost Hurricane Run victory in that classic. However their careers are remarkably similar and at his peak Hurricane Run came within a few pounds of his sire. Timeform rated Hurricane Run at 134 as a three year old and 130 as a 4 year old compared to 137 for Montjeu at three and four. The hope at Coolmore is that he will achieve similar success as a sire. The good news for Coolmore is that his three year olds are stepping up considerably on their two year old form and he looks set for a good season.

First Crop 2 year old Results

Hurricane Run has 147 representatives in his current crop of three year olds. 18 of them managed to win as two year olds which was a creditable outcome. The best of last years runners was the filly Cochabamba (ex Bolivia by Distant View) who finished her campaign with a close second to Cape Dollar (Cape Cross ex Green Dollar by Kingmambo) in the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes. Both of those fillies have genuine classic aspirations and to me represent good ante-post bets for the Oaks for which they are available at around 80-1 on betfair.

First Crop Three Year Old results

The table below shows the results for all of the three year olds by Hurricane Run to have raced in the UK so far this year. The races involved are low class affairs, mostly run on the all-weather but the results could hardly be much better. From 11 runs, there have been five wins, four seconds and one third an outstanding strike rate. In addition his early season result in France include Stakes placings for Don’t  Hurry Me (ex Beringold by Bering) and Kreem (ex En Public by Rainbow Quest). It was always to be hoped that his progeny would improve significantly with age and they seem to be fulfilling that promise. This time last year Dubawi started the season with a lot of early low grade winners and it proved a harbinger of an outstanding season and it will be interesting to see whether Hurricane Run can match his success.

Date
Track
Horse
Dam & Damsire
Pos.
Dist.
03/01/2011
Wolverh.
Roi de Boeuf
Princess Killeen by Sinndar
5th
9 f
08/01/2011
Lingfield
Hurricane Higgins
Mare Aux Fees by Kenmare
1st
10 f
17/01/2011
Wolverh.
Sheila’s Star
Yaselda by Green Desert
2nd
9 f
17/01/2011
Wolverh.
Roi de Boeuf
Princess Killeen by Sinndar
1st
9 f
26/01/2011
Kempton
Sheila’s Star
Yaselda by Green Desert
2nd
10 f
26/01/2011
Kempton
Roi de Boeuf
Princess Killeen by Sinndar
3rd
10 f
25/02/2011
Wolverh.
Barbican
The Faraway Tree by Suave Dancer
1st
9 f
26/03/2011
Lingfield
Viking Storm
Danehill’s Dream by Danehill
2nd
10 f
03/04/2011
Doncaster
Barbican
The Faraway Tree by Suave Dancer
1st
10 f
06/04/2011
Beverley
Pretty Diamond
Cheal Rose by Doctor Devious
1st
12 f
07/04/2011
Kempton
Swindy
Red Passion by Seeking the Gold
2nd
10 f

 Hurricane Run’s Pedigree

Hurricane Run was part of the sensational first crop of Montjeu that also included classic winning colts Motivator and Scorpion. To date we have little evidence of Montjeu’s prowess as a sire of sires, apart from the slightly disappointing Motivator. In his defence we should probably withhold judgement on Motivator as his stud career has been hampered by injuries. Hurricane Run’s dam Hold On was Listed placed and second dam Hone was dam of Group 2 winner Hondo Mondo (by Caerleon). However this is an unexciting female line, largely unfamiliar to UK & Irish breeders. This meant that despite his racecourse prowess Hurricane Run’s stud fee could not be set at more than €30,000 on his retirement. It remained at that level in his second season at stud but is listed as €15,000 for 2011.  It is interesting that Hurricane Run’s dam sire is the 1977 German Derby winner Surumu, who occupies the same place in the pedigree of outstanding German sire Monsun and decent sire Lomitas.

Conclusion

This is a critical year for Hurricane Run. He wasn’t expected to make a big impact with his two year olds and they performed respectably but not exceptionally. However the very early signs are that his progeny are coming into their own as three year olds.  It is hoped that just as he was almost a replica of his sire as a racehorse he may come to replicate his success as a stallion. If that comes to pass, his current fee of €15,000 will look like value.

HURRICANE RUN (IRE) 2002 c b

Montjeu
(IRE) 1996
Sadler’s
Wells (USA) 1981
Northern
Dancer (CAN) 1961
Nearctic
(USA) 1954
Natalma
(USA) 1957
Fairy
Bridge (USA) 1975
Bold
Reason (USA) 1968
Special
(USA) 1969
Floripedes
(FR) 1985
Top
Ville (IRE) 1976
High
Top (IRE) 1969
Sega
Ville (USA) 1968
Toute
Cy (FR) 1979
Tennyson
(FR) 1970
Adele
Toumignon (IRE) 1971
Hold
On (GER) 1991
Surumu
(GER) 1974
Literat
(GER) 1965
Birkhahn
(GER) 1945
Lis
(GER) 1960
Surama
(GER) 1970
Reliance
(FR) 1962
Suncourt
(GB) 1952
Hone
(GB) 1974
Sharpen
Up (GB) 1969
Atan
(USA) 1961
Rocchetta
(GB) 1961
Lucy
(GB) 1966
Sheshoon
(GB) 1956
Laverock
(GB) 1961