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Victor Sheahan

Lope de Vega- something to write about

Lope de Vega was a celebrated Spanish writer, ranked almost the equal of Cervantes and the author of an incredible 1800 plays (thanks Wikipedia). Last weekend’s French Guineas (Poule d’Essai des Poulains) saw another Lope de Vega defeat Dick Turpin by half a length.  The equine Lope is unlikely to achieve evarlasting fame but on a line through Dick Turpin there is currently little between him and Makfi at the top of the European rankings for milers.

Lope de Vega- performance to date

Lope de Vega was a very useful two year old winning his first two starts before winding up his season with a close fourth behind Siyouni in the Grand Criterium. He was third, beaten only half a length on his seasonal reappearance in the Prix de Fontainbleu before his half length success in the Poule D’Essai des Poulains.  In the aftermath of his victory it was stated that he would be aimed at the 10 furlongs of the French Derby. On pedigree, he should have a reasonable chance of getting the additional two furlongs.

Lope de Vega- bred for the French Guineas

In some respects Lope de Vega was bred for the French Guineas. His sire Shamardal won the race in 2005 and his broodmare sire Vettori won the 1995 edition of the race. In addition his grandam Lady Golconda is a daughter of Kendor who won the 1989 renewal.  Furthermore Rahy is the broodmare sire of Giants Causway and Rahy is a son of Blushing Groom the winner of the 1977 renewal.

Shamardal’s racing career

Shamardal was unbeaten on turf, winning the Dewhurst at two for Mark Johnston, before winning the French Guineas (from the luckless Indesatchel ridden by Jamie (Frank) Spencer) at three. He followed up in the first 10 furlong French Derby defeating the fast finishing Hurricane Run.  In the case of both French classics he benefitted from canny rides from Frankie Dettori.  Just 9 days after the French Derby he contested the St James Palace Stakes and he put up an extremely impressive performance that marked him out as an outstanding performer. Unfortunatley it proved to be his last race.

Shamardal’s life story was certainly interesting as he was diagnosed as a wobbler, his first owner Abdulla Buhaleeba sold him at the end of his two year old career after reputedly incurring significant casino losses. He was by Coolmores Giant’s Causeway out of a sister to Godolphins Street Cry, but Coolmore passed him over at the Houghton Sales after failing an endoscopic test. He was the star of Giant’s Causeway’s first crop that also featured Footstepsinthesand and Karen’s Caper.

Shamardal’s stud career

Shamardal’s first crop 143 was conceived off a fee of €40,000. From that crop Arctic was a group 3 winner in Ireland before disappointing somewhat in the Middle Park stakes. Shakespearean won the Solario Stakes and followed up in the Goffs million.  As three year olds Siyaadah won the UAE 1000 Guineas and Zazou won a German Group 3 before coming a close sixth behind Lope de Vega in the Franch Guineas.  From his time in Australia he is represented by Faint Perfume who is a dual Group 1 winner including the Crown Oaks over 12 and half furlongs. He is currently listed as €20000 and should be popular at that price as he is delivering plenty of stakes horses.

Lady Vettori

Lady Vettori, the dam of Lope de Vega won  her first five races as a two year old including the Group 3 Prix du Calvados. She finished her season with a highly creditable third in the Prix Marcel Boussac. She ran just once at three when just touched off in the Prix Imprudence. At stud she had four foals prior to Lope de Vega, the best of whom was Bal de la Rose (by Cadeuax Genereux) who was a 10 furlong Group 3 winner. Lady Vettori is herself a half sister to a stakes performer in Rosey de Megeve (by Efisio) and there are some decent connections further back in the pedigree. However, overall it is not a particularly high class family and it was her racing merit not her pedigree that saw Lady Vettori sold for €500,000 in December 2005.

Conclusion.

His run in the French Guineas represented a career best performance for Lope de Vega. His manner of victory was not overly impressive and he will probably need to show further improvement if he is to succeed in his stated target of the French Derby.  He is a nice advert for his sire Shamardal who is one of the leading lights of a bunch of highly promising new sires to burst on the scene. His dam Lady Vettori owned a modest enough pedigree but she was a superior racehorse and she can certainly take her share of the credit for her sons success.  Machiavellian appears 3*3 in the pedigree as broodmare sire of Shamardal and sire of Vettori but rather than reading too much into that I think we can just credit the combination of a much better than average sire and dam.

LOPE DE VEGA (IRE) 2007 c ch
Shamardal
(USA) 2002		 Giant’s
Causeway (USA) 1997		 Storm
Cat (USA) 1983		 Storm
Bird (USA) 1978
Terlingua
(USA) 1976
Mariah’s
Storm (USA) 1991		 Rahy
(USA) 1985
Immense
(USA) 1979
Helsinki
(GB) 1993		 Machiavellian
(USA) 1987		 Mr
Prospector (USA) 1970
Coup
De Folie (USA) 1982
Helen
Street (GB) 1982		 Troy
(GB) 1976
Waterway
(FR) 1976
Lady
Vettori (GB) 1997		 Vettori
(IRE) 1992		 Machiavellian
(USA) 1987		 Mr
Prospector (USA) 1970
Coup
De Folie (USA) 1982
Air
Distingue (USA) 1980		 Sir
Ivor (USA) 1965
Euryanthe
(USA) 1975
Lady
Golconda (FR) 1992		 Kendor(FR) 1986 Kenmare
(FR) 1975
Belle
Mecene (FR) 1982
Lady
Sharp (FR) 1981		 Sharpman
(IRE) 1976
Golondrina
(FR) 1970

A vintage crop?

When we think of races involving horses that became successful stallions, the standout event is the 1984 French Derby that famously saw Darshaan defeat Sadler’s Wells and Rainbow Quest.  The 1996 July Cup won by Anabaa, had Danehill Dancer and Pivotal back in fifth and sixth places.  It is early days yet, but we might soon be adding races from the 2005 season to the above list as the likes of Dubawi, Shamardal,  Oratorio, Motivator and Footstepsinthesand were all in their classic year, whilst Azamour was enjoying a very successful four year old season. Arakan never competed against the aforementioned horses but he is also enjoying a good start with his first three year olds.

The above thoughts are prompted by the results of the French 2000 Guineas which resulted in a 1-2-3 for second season sires with Lope de Vega (by Shamardal), defeating Dick Turpin (Arakan ex Merrily by Sharood) and Shamalgan (Footstepsinthesand ex Genevale by Unfuwain). Following on from the classic successes of Dubawi’s offspring Makfi and Worthadd and some promising results for Azamour and Oratorio, it looks as if we have an unusually large number of promising sires coming on stream at once. It is much too early to be dogmatic about any of these sires but we can make some reasonable assumptions.

1. Arakan is the least likely to succeed. In one sense he has already surpassed expectations and he has sired a horse (Dick Turpin) of superior racing merit to himself. Arakan never won above Group 3 level despite being kept in training until the age of five, and as a son of Nureyev (who many regard with suspicion as a sire of sires) he didn’t immediately appeal as a likely sire success. The challenge will be to remain above the radar for the next few years until he can hopefully capitalise on the success of Dick Turpin.

2. Motivator has been plagued by bad luck. Injury restricted his first crop size and he has now missed the 2010 breeding season.  He had some promising two year olds last year notably Pollenator and Prompter and he seems capable of getting a decent horse but in a fickle market place he needs a big horse to appear quickly.

3. Azamour seems the best source of quality stamina at this stage. Despite being a son of Night Shift who sired more than his fair share of sprinters the early signs are that Azamours progeny will stay as well as he did himself. To date he has sired two Derby trial winners in Azmeel and Puncher Clynch. Eleanora Duse also ran well when a close third in the Musidora Stakes.

4.  Darley are currently outscoring Coolmore amongst the younger brigade.  The achievements to date of Dubawi outrank those of any of the other sires listed. Shamardal has also achieved more than  Coolmore’s Oratorio or Footstepsinthesand.  Coolmore will be hoping that Steinbeck can be the big horse that Footstepsinthesand needs, whereas Oratorio looks as if he has a good spread of possible top horses with Lolly for Dolly being a contender for the Irish Guineas and Fencing Master and Beethoven could add to last years achievements.  I doubt if they are panicking in Tipperary but it does seem to be a few years since they have added a real star to their roster.

A strange sequence of events-1000, 2000, 2010 Guineas

Our friends in the States may not agree, but they have their classic programme in the wrong order. Having the Kentucky Derby as the opening classic is like having your main course first.  In Europe, we have the Guineas for starters, building up to the main course of the Derby and then we allow plenty of time for digestion, before the dessert of the St Leger.  This years Guineas weekend belonged to the masters of fine dining, the French.

The 2000 Guineas- Derby pointers

The hope and hype from Ballydoyle was that St Nicholas Abbey would continue his unbeaten run and ultimately become the first triple crown winner since Nijinsky in 1970. Alas for his followers, the wait for a son of Montjeu who can excel over a mile will continue. However, unlike everything I’ve read elsewhere I thought he ran a perfectly satisfactory Derby prep and I think that the 4-1 now available for Epsom is good value. In fact, if he had won the Guineas I would have been a little more concerned about his chances at Epsom as then there would have been a doubt that he was not a ‘typical Montjeu’ who excelled over middle distances.

Makfi- history to date

The Guineas was won well by Makfi a son of Dubawi about whom we wrote in detail in a recent post. Amazingly in the Autumn he was sold from Marcus Tregoning’s yard and put in the October horses in training sale where he fetched 26000 guineas. This is now proven to be an extraordinarily bad piece of business on the part of Sheikh Hamdens team. At a future date I will compile a list of the worst culling decisions in memory and Makfi is sure of a place near the top. He won his maiden in November at Fontainbleu before starting this season with an easy victory in the traditional French Guineas trial, the Prix Djebel. In hindsight his starting price of 33-1 was very generous and was due to a lack of punter familiarity with his young trainer Mikel Dezangles, a lack of respect for the French form and the distorted market due to the gamble on St Nicholas Abbey.

Makfi-pedigree

Makfi’s pedigree is top class. His dam Dhelaal was an unraced daughter of Green Desert.  Dhelaal is however a half sister to champion two year old Alhaarth (by Unfuwain) who has a Guineas connection as the sire of 2004 winner Haafhd. Makfi is her first foal and he was followed by a filly by Nayef. Interestingly Nayef is a half brother to Unfuwain.  Makfi’s granddam Irish Valley also produced 7 other winners apart from Alhaarth including French Group 3 winner Green Pola (by Nijinsky). Her unraced daughter Dalayil (by Sadler’s Wells) is the dam of Derby third Aqaleem (by Sinndar) who recently died having been sold to Australia in the hope of winning a Melbourne Cup. Coincidentally Aqaleem was trained in England by Marcus Tregoning and he was third in the Derby to Authorized (by Montjeu ex Funsie by Saumurez) and Green Valley the third dam of Makfi is also the third dam of Authorized. Green Valley is most commonly found throughout pedigrees as the dam of Green Dancer (by Nijinsky) who won the Observer Gold Cup (now the Racing Post Trophy) and the French Guineas before becoming one of the best sire sons of Nijinsky. Green Valley has the enviable record of having 13 winners from her 14 foals and she herself is a daughter of Sly Pola who was a flying two year old who won the Prix de l’Abbaye. This is a family that keeps producing high quality performers and Makfi has certainly upheld the family tradition.

Dubawi is doing everything right as a stallion.  Makfi is his second classic winner in recent weeks as Worthadd (x Wigman by Rahy) won the Group 3 Italian Guineas and he has prospects of further classic success with recent Group 3 winner Anna Salai ( x Anna Palariva by Caerleon) in the French 1000 Guineas.

The 1000 Guineas

This years 1000 Guineas was full of controversy. There was a very significant draw bias which meant most of the field were at a huge disadvantage.  First past the post was Jacqueline Quest (by Rock of Gibraltar ex Coquette Rouge by Croco Rouge), however Tom Queally’s mount was deemed to have interfered with Special Duty (Hennessy x Quest to Peak by Distant View) and the placings were altered. Again, for those who like coincidences, Jacqueline Quest’s sire Rock of Gibraltar benefitted from Hawk Wing’s poor draw (and rider)when he won the 2002 running of the 2000 Guineas and Special Duty ‘s granddam Viviana is a daughter of the last English Guineas winner to be disqualified, Nureyev. Furthermore Special Duty’s owner, Khalid Abdullah also owned Known Fact who was awarded the race on the disqualification of Nureyev.

 I wrote about Special Duty’s pedigree and her chances in the Guineas after she won the Cheveley Park (see paragraph Special Duty- Omens are good) and oddly enough I also devoted a recent posting to controversial stewards decisions of which this Guineas will probably be added, although I feel the stewards today made the correct decision.

Channel 4’s coverage

Finally it might be worth noting  Channel 4’s television coverage of the stewards enquiry. John Francome got it spectacularly wrong with his repeated assertions that there was no way the result would be changed. Then during an interview with Jaqueline Quest’s owner Noel Martin, the presenter (Mike Cattermole, I think) was told that the horse was called after Mr Martin’s wife. The presenter then asked if his wife was at the races and he was told that “she died some years ago and is buried in my back garden”. An emotional owner then outlined some details of his extraordinary and often tragic recent past and mentioned how his life had been worsened by Channel 4 who made what he felt to be an unfair documentary about him.  When the revised result was announced the camera zoomed in on a distraught Mr Martin. This was car-crash television from Channel 4.

MAKFI (GB) 2007 c b
Dubawi
(IRE) 2002		 Dubai
Millennium (GB) 1996		 Seeking
The Gold (USA) 1985		 Mr
Prospector (USA) 1970
Con
Game (USA) 1974
Colorado
Dancer (IRE) 1986		 Shareef
Dancer (USA) 1980
Fall
Aspen (USA) 1976
Zomaradah
(GB) 1995		 Deploy
(GB) 1987		 Shirley
Heights (GB) 1975
Slightly
Dangerous (USA) 1979
Jawaher
(IRE) 1989		 Dancing
Brave (USA) 1983
High
Tern (IRE) 1982
Dhelaal
(GB) 2002		 Green
Desert (USA) 1983		 Danzig
(USA) 1977		 Northern
Dancer (CAN) 1961
Pas
De Nom (USA) 1968
Foreign
Courier (USA) 1979		 Sir
Ivor (USA) 1965
Courtly
Dee (USA) 1968
Irish
Valley (USA) 1982		 Irish
River (FR) 1976		 Riverman
(USA) 1969
Irish
Star (FR) 1960
Green
Valley (USA) 1967		 Val
De Loir (FR) 1959
Sly
Pola (USA) 1957

Cheltenham Review (belated)

It may be old news at this stage but in my defence I was moving house and I was without internet access for a period. Therefore I hope you will forgive me for belatedly reflecting on this years Cheltenham festival.

1. A disappointing Cheltenham

Cheltenham 2010 was a disappointment. All the races were run and we got some new champions but it lacked any performances that will live long in the memory. In the Gold Cup we saw the best of neither Kauto Star nor Denman and thus far the winner Imperial Commander (Flemensfirth x Ballinlovane by Le Moss) ranks as a good but not a great winner.

The Champion hurdle got the result we expected in 2009 but not so much in 2010 with Binocular triumphing (see full pedigree review http://montjeu.com/archives/75 ) . He was a good winner and although runner up Khyber Kim (Mujahid x Jungle Rose by Shirley Heights) franked the form by winning the Aintree hurdle the belief remains that the current crop of 2 mile hurdlers are unexceptional.  As an aside it is worth noting that Binocular was effectively declared a non-runner a few weeks before Cheltenham and he drifted to 999-1 on betfair.  It is interesting to compare the media fawning over Nicky Henderson with their treatment of other trainers who have ruled fancied horses out of big races before doing a u-turn.

Master Minded failed in his attempt to join the legends of the game by winning a third Champion Chase. The winner Big Zeb (Oscar- Our Siveen by Deep Run) looked good and is another marker of the skills of his trainer Colm Murphy.

Of the defending champions in the big four races only Big Bucks (Cadoudal-Buck’s by Le Glorieux) retained his crown and enhanced his reputation. He followed up at Aintree and is now unbeaten in his last 7 runs over hurdles.

 The potentially star hurdler that we expected to see was last years bumper winner Dunguib (Presenting-Edermine Berry by Durgam). However the Irish banker was only third behind Menorah (Kings Theatre-Maid for Adventure by Strong Gale). Criticism of Dunguibs jockey was unwarranted as he was never travelling like the superstar that so many had expected to see.

Key Numbers

There were 12 Group 1 races over the four days of Cheltenham.  The influence of Sadler’s Wells was never far away and 6 of the races fell to his grandsons and one to his great grandson (Binocular). For the record King’s Theatre had a double with Menorah  and the Bumper winner Cue Card (King’s Theatre-Wicked Crack by King’s Ride) and Oscar matched his achievment with Big Zeb and  Peddlers Cross (Oscar-Patscilla by Squill) winning the 2mile 5 novice hurdle. Accordion had a winner with Alberta’s run in the Ryanair chase and Golden Tornado who like Accordion was unraced, sired Berties Dream winner of the 3 mile novice hurdle.  Golden Tornado is a half brother to the American trained Irish 2000 Guineas winner Fourstarsallstar who sired the cross country chase winner A New Story.  The non-Sadlers Wells line stallions with Grade 1 winners were the Alleged horse Flemensfirth with Imperial Commander,  Cadoudal with Big Bucks, Pistolet Blue with Arkle winner Sizing Europe, Presenting with RSA winner Weapons Amnesty although he is out of an Old VIc mare and finally Triumph hurdle winner Soldatino who has a very obscure French pedigree being sired by Graveron a non-stakes winning grandson of Mill Reef out of an AQPS mare (“autre que pur sang” — “other than thoroughbred.”)

Ireland v France

The media often bill Cheltenham as an Anglo-Irish battle, but an equally interesting battle has arisen between Irish and French breds.  This year only 3 of the 12 Group 1’s went to French breds (Binocular, Big Bucks, Soldantino) but they still managed 9 winners overall and relative to their numbers they are disproportionately successful compared to their Irish and UK rivals. This years battle may have gone to the Irish but the war is far from over. It has been interesting to note how Irish studs have started to invest in proven or promising French jumps stallions as happened with Pistolet Bleu and more recently with Robin des Champs and Robin des Pres. Given the larger book sizes in Ireland, the buying power of Irish studs tends to be greater and it will be interesting to see whether the French repeat the mistakes of the 1970’s and 1980’s when they failed to hold onto their best flat stallions such as Lyphard, Riverman and Nureyev.

Dubious about Dubai but not Dubawi

From the 22nd of January to the 7th of February, Dubawi had six runners on the all-weather. All six won. The six victories earned the lucky owners £15,811, an average of £2,635 or $4,130 per victory. These are the amounts before deductions for the winning trainers, jockeys and stable staff and before entry fees,riding fees and travel costs are taken into account. If the owners netted £1,400 ($2,192) per victory they would be doing well.

Meanwhile in Dubai, Dubawi’s owner Sheikh Mohammed unveiled the Meydan track. Press reviews were very positive. Estimates of its construction cost ranged from $1.25 billion to $2.4 billion. It has a 1km long grandstand and seating for 60,000.  It will do well to even cover its running costs as general admission is free (but there is a charge for the grandstand). Gambling is prohibited so there is no revenue from that quarter.  It is intended as a visitor attraction and showcase for Dubai which is another way of saying that no one was ever asked to justify the cost. Meydan replaces the Nad Al Sheba track (which had world class facilities) and to me this development represents the most obscene folly and waste of resources imaginable.

 It may not be considered appropriate to criticise the man who has invested more than anyone else in the racing industry for the past three decades but this was utter madness.  In order to pay for his monument to folly Sheikh Mohammed will have to win one million races on the all-weather. Is there a better indicator of the wasteful excesses of the middle-eastern rulers and the pitiful prize-money in the UK, than this fact?

None of Duabwi’s 5 individual winners (Duellist, Monterosso, Your Lad, Ostentation and Solstice) are likely to become celebrated names in the history of the turf. However signs are promising for Dubawi to become a significant new stallion from what looks like becoming an exceptional crop of stallions foaled in 2002 (others included Shamardal, Oratario, Footstepsinthesand and  Motivator). In addition he looks like he will overtake Nayef, Medicean and Zamindar as being the best Mr Prospector line stallion (with runners to date) standing in Europe.

Dubawi’s Racecourse Career

Dubawi was the first of Dubai Millennium’s offspring to appear on the racetrack and no doubt it was very pleasing to Sheikh Mohammed to see him make a winning debut at Goodwood in June. He followed up in the Group 3 Superlative stakes at Newmarket and concluded his unbeaten two year old season with a victory in the Group 1 National Stakes at the Curragh. His victories had been achieved on ground that varied from good to firm to yielding at the Curragh. He went into winter quarters as a leading classic prospect and indeed such was their regard for Dubawi, Godophin went and purchased Berenson who was runner-up in the National Stakes.  Berenson became another victim of the ‘big blue hole’ that is Godolphin and was never seen on the racecourse again.

Dubawi wintered in Dubai and such was his work and performance in some of Godolphins private trials that he started favourite for the 2000 Guineas. He finished fifth behind Footstepsinthesand but was beaten only three lengths. His defeat was blamed on the good to firm ground. He resumed winning ways and achieved an impressive classic success in the Irish Guineas on good ground, defeating Oratario by two lengths. He was then sent to Epsom where he ran creditably to be third behind Motivator, but it was obvious that 12 furlongs was farther than optimal. Given a break until August he reappeared in the Jacques le Marois and he put up his best ever performance in defeating Whipper, Valixir and the previously undefeated Divine Proportions. Dubawi was next seen in the QEII at Ascot and he was made favourite and expected to wrap-up the title of European champion miler. Instead he was beaten 3/4’s of a length by the five year old Starcraft with many people questioning Frankie Dettori’s tactics.

That proved to be Dubawi’s final racecourse appearance. He never made the Breeders Cup and retired as the winner of five of his 8 starts including three Group 1’s. He had shown brilliance but also quirkiness as he had drifted across the track on a number of occasions (a tendency he shared with another son of Dubai Millennium now at stud, Echo of Light). He seemed versatile as to the going with only firm ground (as in the Guineas) being unsuitable.  He was clearly a brilliant miler, he had shown guts in running well over 12 furlongs at Epsom and it was surprising that he was never asked to run over 10 furlongs, a distance that would have seemed ideal for him.

Pedigree

As could be expected of any representative of Dubai Millennium’s only crop, Dubawi owns an impressive pedigree. His dam Zomaradah went from winning a maiden to winning the Italian Oaks. She subsequently maintained a high level of form adding Group successes in the EP Taylor stakes, the Royal Whip and the Premio Lydia Tesio and she finished a close third in the 1999 Breeders Cup Fillies & Mares Turf. Zomaradah ranks as the best offspring of Deploy (by Shirley Heights)who was runner-up in the Irish Derby and who was just one of the many celebrated offspring of Slightly Dangerous.

Dubawi’s granddam Jawaher ran five times without success but she was a daughter of High Tern who produced Derby winner High Rise (by High Estate by Shirley Heights).  Dubawi’s 4th dam Sunbittern is the dam of classic placed High Hawk (by Shirley Heights) and High Hawk was subsequently dam of In The Wings. No doubt all these Shirley Heights connections led to the selection of Deploy as a mate for Jawaher.

Dubai Millemmium left behind only 56 foals before his premature death. Dubawi was his only Group 1 winner and he was supported by the Group 2 winner (and nutcase) Echo of Light and Group 3 winner Belenus. After his death Sheikh Mohammed set about buying all the offspring of his favourite horse.  In hindsight with 9% black type winners Dubai Millennium had the makings of a very good but unexceptional sire given the opportunities he was afforded.

 Dubawi’s stud career to date

Dubawi’s first runners last year saw him crowned champion first season sire by winners (34). In addition to quantity his first crop included Group 2 winners Poet’s Voice (ex Bright Tiara by Chief’s Crown) and Sand Vixen (ex Fur Will Fly by Petong). This crop was conceived off an initial fee of £25000 and this remained his fee in 2007. He spent the 2008 season in Kildangan in Ireland at €40,000 before returning to Dalham Hall for 2009 season at a fee of £15000.  His initial success has seen this rise ot £20000 for the current season which seems quite reasonable to me. Dubawi has also shuttled to Australia and his first crop of two year olds are also now making a mark with Cellarmaster recently winning a Group 3 in New Zealand and finishing runner-up in a Group 2.

Conclusion.

It would be foolish to put too much weight on a flurry of low level winners at this time of the year. However it is certainly encouraging that Dubawi is maintaining his momentum as his runners mature from two to three.  As a sire he can offer breeders a very good prospect of getting a winner and a reasonable prospect of a high class winner at that.  The best is yet to come and if Sheikh Mohammed wants to take his mind off Dubai’s debt crisis and his own profligacy he can console himself with the thought that he controls one of the most promising young stallions in Europe.

 

 

DUBAWI (IRE) 2002 c b
Dubai
Millennium (GB) 1996		 Seeking
The Gold (USA) 1985		 Mr
Prospector (USA) 1970		 Raise
A Native (USA) 1961
Gold
Digger (USA) 1962
Con
Game (USA) 1974		 Buckpasser
(USA) 1963
Broadway
(USA) 1959
Colorado
Dancer (IRE) 1986		 Shareef
Dancer (USA) 1980		 Northern
Dancer (CAN) 1961
Sweet
Alliance (USA) 1974
Fall
Aspen (USA) 1976		 Pretense
(USA) 1963
Change
Water (USA) 1969
Zomaradah
(GB) 1995		 Deploy
(GB) 1987		 Shirley
Heights (GB) 1975		 Mill
Reef (USA) 1968
Hardiemma
(GB) 1969
Slightly
Dangerous (USA) 1979		 Roberto
(USA) 1969
Where
You Lead (USA) 1970
Jawaher
(IRE) 1989		 Dancing
Brave (USA) 1983		 Lyphard
(USA) 1969
Navajo
Princess (USA) 1974
High
Tern (IRE) 1982		 High
Line (GB) 1966
Sunbittern
(GB) 1970

2020 Vision

It’s a new year and a new decade,
so I dusted off the crystal ball and thought about what the next decade holds for the thoroughbred world. In a European context the changes from 2000 to 2010 were incremental rather than revolutionary. It’s a largely familiar landscape in which Coolmore and Darley still dominate.  Sadler’s Wells and Danehill may be gone, but their sons are now dominant. In an American context the one truly radical change is the adoption of synthetics. However by 2020 I foresee dramatic changes worldwide.

1. AI is coming.

Artificial Insemination is inevitable and I for one would welcome this development. Economics (reduced travel costs), safety considerations (reduced injuries to stallions and mares) and critically AI’s role in disease prevention will ensure that it eventually happens. The ‘traditionalists’ chief concerns have been:

  1. the fear of huge crop sizes
  2. a reduction in stallion diversity
  3. the practical issue that foals conceived by AI are not eligible for inclusion in the stud book

If we consider these arguments they don’t stand up to close examination. Huge crop sizes are already a reality. The marketplace will find a level at which demand (finite) will equal the new level of supply (almost infinite).  After an adjustment period, I do not envisage the top stallions greatly exceeding some of the current crop sizes. Commercial breeders have always factored in scarcity value to their deliberations and they will quickly adjust to the new environment. One interesting dilemma for stallion masters is whether they will be able to continue to charge different amounts for shuttle sires in different hemispheres.

Stallion diversity it is argued will be reduced as everyone tries to use a smaller number of elite stallions. I disagree, as firstly crop sizes may not alter as much as expected (see above) but more importantly breeders can now access any stallion regardless of location.  For breeders in small regional markets this offers huge opportunities. As a mating analyst it would mean that geography was no longer a consideration and it would allow experimentation on a grand scale.

Inclusion in the stud book will be driven by other factors. In the event of a major breeding country eg the US being forced to adopt AI as a disease prevention measure, the rules will be changed.  Australia contemplated AI when they had an outbreak of Equine Flu in 2007 amongst their shuttle stallions and other court cases have challenged the ban on the grounds of restraint of trade. Whatever the catalyst, once change comes, I believe the other major countries would eventually accept the new realities. If I was to make a practical suggestion I would recommend that foals would not be registered where the stallion has been deceased for 12 months or more. This would ensure that new stallions get a chance and that for example we would not still be seeing offspring of Sadler’s Wells in 25 years time.

 2. The scientists are coming.

Genetic research is about to usher in a brave new world and one with implications for the bloodstock industry that are far more profound than the impact of AI. Take the following example(www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/innovation/2010/0108/1224261770182) and consider the implications of this work. If scientists can identify and then test for the genetic markers that determine performance, the consequences for the industry are dramatic and traumatic. Who will buy a horse who is lacking these critical indicators of success? Currently the industry is supported by the triumph of hope over probability. Genetic tests will eliminate this hope and will make the majority of foals/yearlings effectively worthless. Other possibilities arise. What if these tests can be performed on embryos? The logical thing for a breeder to do would be to cease the pregnancy and try again, which raises ethical issues. 

 On a more positive note the scientists will help debunk many current breeding theories. We should get a proper understanding of inheritance with due regard and understanding of female influence. Looking back in 2020 I suspect us modern pedigree ‘experts’ will be viewed in the same way that we regard 19th century doctors who relied on bloodletting and leeches for many ailments!

3. The Japanese are coming

Japanese horses have already finished 2nd (El Condor Pasa) and 3rd (Deep Impact) in the Arc. They have finished first and second in the Melbourne Cup (Delta Blues and Pop Rock) and have achieved major success in America (Casino Drive and Cesario), the UK (Agnes World) and France (Seeking the Pearl).  It is a long time since Japan was a dumping ground for failed or unfashionable European stallions and the effect of their investments in recent decades mean that their horses are competitive at the highest level. The huge prizemoney at home has probably restricted travel to date but that might be about to change. If the Japanese bloodstock industry follows the example of other Japanese industries then they will be anxious to prove themselves to the world.  It might be no more than a hunch but I predict that Japanese winners will become commonplace in major events here and in the US.

M J Kinane-worth remembering

Mick Kinane announced his retirement at the start of December. His decision to retire after his annus mirabilis with Sea the Stars is indicative of a jockey who had a perfect sense of timing. Many of the glowing tributes described him as the ‘best flat jockey that Ireland ever produced’. I’m not convinced he was demonstrably better than Pat Eddery, Kieran Fallon or Johnny Murtagh but he was certainly as good as any other Irish jockey.  In particular he was outstanding around Leopardstown and Ascot. I sometimes had reservations about his riding in France and the US, but it is a testament to his greatness that he tended to be judged against a benchmark of perfection.  Naturally over such a lengthy career he rode many future stallions (far too many to properly consider) but it is worth recalling some of the more notable names from such a storied career.

 The Liam Browne years

Initially Kinane rode for Michael  Kauntze and Liam Browne. The only star from that time was the cheaply bred and purchased Dara Monarch (1979 Realm x Sardara by Alcide)who won an Irish 2000 Guineas and St James’s Palace Stakes for Liam Browne.  At stud his only offspring of significance was the Lockinge winner Broken Hearted.

The Dermot Weld Years 1983-1997

From there he moved across the Curragh to Rosewell House and Dermot Weld where he stayed from late 1983-1997. Although it was a successful partnership that led to a number of Irish championships, in terms of influential stallions it was disappointing. The most important was Theatrical (1982 Nureyev x Tree of Knowledge by Sassafras). but he achieved his major successes after leaving Ireland. Ironically Kinane chose not to ride Theatrical’s son Zagreb (1993 Theatrical x Sophonosibe by Wollow) for Weld in the 1996 Irish Derby favouring Michael Stoute’s Dr Massini who trailed in 7th.  Indeed the Irish Derby was an unlucky race for Kinane who was also touched off on Weld’s Definite Article (1992 Indian Ridge x Summer Fashion by Moorestyle) by Winged Love in 1995. Thus far Definite Article’s main achievement has been to sire the outstanding stayer Vinnie Roe who won an incredible 4 Irish St Legers.

Flash of Steel (1983 Kris x Spark of Fire by Run the Gauntlet) won the 1986 Irish Guineas for Weld and Kinane but like many sons of Kris was disappointing at stud.  Big Shuffle (1984 Super Concorde x Raise Your Skirts by Elevation) won a Cork and Orrery in 1987 and he is still a popular and successful stallion in Germany where he proved a reliable source of speed. In 1992 Brief Truce (1989 Irish River x Falafel by Northern Dancer) got a superb ride from Kinane to win a St James Palace at 25-1 defeating Rodrigo de Triano and Arazi ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1hUplXewoDM ) but he was disappointing as a sire.   1990 saw Weld and Kinane secure an historic Belmont Victory with Go and Go (1987 Be my Guest x Irish Edition by Alleged) winning by 8 lengths. Again that son of Be My Guest made no impact as a sire. Twilight Agenda (1986 Devil’s Bag x Grenzen by Grenfall) was another Moyglare Stud horse who seemed to prosper once he was transferred to the US, but he also failed to make an impact at stud. Vintage Crop’s (1987 Rousillon x Overplay by Bustino) historic Melbourne Cup win is of no relevance as he was of course a gelding.  An interesting and unexpected successful stallion from that period was Unusual Heat (1990 Nureyev x Rossard by Glacial) who never won above listed class, finished last in the Irish 2000 Guineas but who has risen from obscurity to become an important sire in California.

Outside Rides

Mick acquired a reputation as the big race king or ‘super-sub’. He certainly compiled a very impressive record for outside stables. He rode Carroll House (1985 Lord Gayle x Tuna by Silver Shark) to win the 1989 Arc http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lpiwr6H7134&feature=related and Phoenix Champion Stakes. Like so many horses at the time he was sold to Japan but was eventually returned to Ireland as a National Hunt stallion.  The next year he rode Tirol (1987 Thatching x Alpine Niece by Great Nephew) to win the 2000 Guineas for Richard Hannon. He retired to Coolmore alongside his sire where he did sire the occasional top horse such as Tarascon and Miss Tahiti, but he never threatened to be the saviour of the Forli line. Mick got to ride Commander in Chief (1990 Dancing Brave x Slightly Dangerous by Roberto) to Derby success when Pat Eddery wrongly chose Tenby. Commander in Chief was also sold  to Japan where he failed to make a significant impact.

Mick rode Belmez (1987 El Gran Senor x Grace Note by Top Ville) and King’s Theatre (1991 Sadler’s Wells x Regal Beauty by Princely Native) to win the King George for Henry Cecil. Belmez proved a very disappointing sire prior to his premature death. King’s Theatre is now marketed as a dual purpose sire and to be fair he is a very good jumps sire.

The Aidan O’Brien Years 1999-2003

The biggest and most pressurised job in Europe saw Kinane rise to the challenge admirably. The list of top class horses is very long and almost all of them got their chance at Coolmore. In terms of sires the outstanding name is Galileo the dual Derby winner from 2001 followed by Giant’s Causway who was a star of the 2000 season. 

Rock of Gibraltar (1999 Danehill x by Offshore Boom by Be My Guest) is proving an average sire given his opportunities, and Kinane wasn’t at his finest when riding him in the Breeders Cup Mile.  2002 saw Ballydoyle house the Rock, along with High Chaparral (1999 Sadler’s Wells x Kasora by Darshaan) and Hawk Wing (1999 Woodman x La Lorgnette by Val De L’Orne). Mick made a rare error of judgement in choosing to ride Hawk Wing over High Chapparal in the Derby that year. In terms of stud careers Hawk Wing has been a disaster and High Chapparal (who at one point looked destined for a career as a National Hunt sire), has staged a spirited revival and is compiling a creditable record here and in Australia.

Fasliyev (1997 Nureyev x Mr P’s Princess by Mr Prospector) was an unbeaten two year old in 1999 who had a sensational first crop but was unable to build on it.

Minardi (1998 Boundary x Yarn by Mr Prospector) was another good two year old but a disappointing sire.   Johannesburg (1999 Hennessy x Myth by Ogygian) was a remarkable two year old in 2001 and his success in the Breeders Cup Juvenile was a breakthrough dirt success for Ballydoyle. As a sire he made a lot of money for Ashford Stud before his recent move to Japan, but to my mind he was overpriced and the occasional top horse hid a lot of dross.

Mozart (1998 Danehill x Victoria Cross by Spectacular Bid) was an outstanding sprinter and on the evidence of his sole crop that featured Dandy Man and Amadeus Wolf his premature death was unfortunate for Coolmore.

Stravinsky (1996 Nureyev x Fire the Groom by Blushing Groom) was another oustanding sprinter and although eventually sold by Coolmore to Japan he left behind a creditable record here and in the Southern hemisphere.

The John Oxx years 2004-2009

Only two horses are likely to have an impact as stallions, obviously Sea The Stars has everything going for him and its easy to forget that Azamour ( 2001 Night Shift x Asmara by Lear Fan) was also a Group 1 winner over a mile, 10 furlongs and 12 furlongs. There were some promising individuals amongst Azamour’s first crop of two year olds and his progeny are likely to progress.

Five best stallions ridden by Kinane

1. Montjeu (1996 Sadler’s Wells x Floripedes by Top Ville)

Already a dual Derby winner by the time Kinane took over the ride. Kinane rode him to 4 Group 1 wins. The most impressive was his imperious victory in the King George. He bacame Mick’s second Arc winner but in my opinion it wasn’t Mick’s best ride as he was in a pocket and on testing ground Montjeu did very well to make up the ground on the heroic El Condor Pasa. Happily Mick subsequently earned the distinction of being co-breeder of Montjeu’s Derby winning son Authorized.

2. Galileo (1998 Sadler’s Wells x Urban Sea by Miswaki).

Mick rode him in 7 of his 8 races comfortably winning the Derby, Irish Derby and King George on him. There was some criticism of his ride in the Irish Champion Stakes when Godolphin and Fantastic Light defeated him by a head. His career finished disappointingly in the Breeders Cup when Ballydoyle seemed to ignore the stats involving the offspring of Sadler’s Wells running on the dirt.

3. Monsun (1990 Konigsstuhl x Mosella by Surumu)

Mick only rode him once but it was Group 1 win in the 1993 Aral Pokal. Ironically the second horse George Augustus was trained by his subsequent employer John Oxx and the third home shrewd idea was trained by one of his first bosses Michael Kauntze. I doubt if anyone present that day realised that they were viewing a horse destined to become the greatest sire Germany has produced.

4. Giant’s Causeway (1997 Storm Cat  x Mariah’s Storm by Rahy).

Mick rode him in 12 of his 13 starts winning 5 group 1’s on the ‘Iron Horse’ (George Duffield rode him in the Eclipse).  Many of these successes were hard fought and it is worth rewatching his ride in the Juddmonte International ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDPyQA-WWGo ) . Less pleasant viewing for Mick would be his ride in the Irish Guineas where Bachir stole a march on him and some would argue that dropping his whip near the finish of the Breeder’s Cup Classic affected the result (Tiznow won by a neck). Although Giant’s Causeway can sometimes divide opinions amongst breeders, he keeps churning out stakes horses and he is always capable of producing a top notcher particularly on turf or synthetics.

5. Theatrical (1982 Nureyev x Tree of Knowledge by Sassafras).

Mick was jocked off Theatrical to allow Lester Pigott the ride at Epsom. Back in Ireland Mick had won a  Derby Trial on Theatrical and rode a good race when second to Law Society in the 1985 Irish Derby. Theatrical subsequently improved slightly when transferred to Bill Mott.  Theatrical became a fine stallion who was somewhat underrated and at stud on the wrong continent.

Five most disappointing stallions ridden by Kinane (relative to opportunities).

1. Hawk Wing (1999 Woodman x La Lorgnette by Val De L’Orne)

The horse who seemed to have everything, brilliant speed and enough stamina to finish second in a good Derby.  Mick rode him to win Group 1’s at 2 (National Stakes), 3 (a soft Eclipse) and 4 (the Lockinge). His performance in the Lockinge had Timeform struggling to find a better performance in recent decades http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XiXbsSCdGLs . Hawk Wing would have won a 2000 Guineas if Mick Kinane had ridden him but he was suspended at the time and regardless he might have chosen to ride Johannesburg in the Kentucky Derby that same day. In a prelude of things to come as far as Ballydoyle were concerned Jamie Spencer took over and got the horse beaten whilst in a further portent Johnny Murtagh did a fine job on Rock of Gibraltar. A terrible stallion (like most sons of Woodman) and now banished to Korea.

2. Entrepreneur (1994 Sadler’s Wells x Exclusive Order by Exclusive Native)

A Guineas winner who retired to Coolmore. He did sire Vintage Tipple who won an Irish Oaks but the fact that he is now in Russia says it all.

3. King of Kings (1995 Sadler’s Wells x Zummerudd by Habitat).  Another Guineas winner by Sadler’s Wells who retired to Coolmore. Did ok in his Southern Hemisphere stint but now in Switzerland.

4. One Cool Cat (2001 Storm Cat x Tacha by Mr Prospector).

Mick rode him to win the National Stakes and Phoenix Stakes at two during his last season at Ballydoyle. His oldest progeny are still not even four and he has had a lot of two year old winners in the last season so it might seem very unreasonable to make a decision on him as yet, but he has been very disappointing with nothing of note to date.

5. Fasliyev (1997 Nureyev x Mr P’s Princess by Mr Prospector).

Mick rode him to win the Phoenix Stakes and Prix Morny as part of an unbeaten juvenile campaign. He is on this list because he misled a lot of people (including me) into thinking that he was about to become a major force in Europe after a scintillating first crop of two year olds. His stud fee rocketed but everything since then was a disappointment and he is now in Japan.

Conclusion

In a career of such longevity and such success it is only possible for me to provide a very potted history. The story will still need to be updated as Mick rode plenty of stallions about whom we will have to wait to make a full assessment. However at the end of his riding career we can safely state that Mick was a truly great jockey and I suspect that Mick is one of those people that sometimes aren’t fully appreciated until they are gone (that was certainly the case in Ballydoyle when they replaced him with Jamie Spencer 🙂