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sires in form

Arc day 2011- A new French fashion?

The French have a reputation for being fashionable. Sunday was Prix de l’Arc day- Europe’s finest single days racing with seven Group 1 races. The results were a breath of fresh air and a delight to those people who love to see diversity amongst the stallion ranks. We have come to expect top class European racing to be dominated by the Danzig and Sadler’s Wells branches of the Northern Dancer line. On Sunday, these lines were eclipsed by a less fashionable branch of the Northern Dancer line and even more pleasingly, five of the other winners were not from the Northern Dancer line.

Nijinsky- a better Arc day than in 1970

The Nijinsky sireline had a big day on Sunday. Nijinsky famously lost his unbeaten record in the 1970 Arc to Sassafras. He subsequently sired one winner of the race in Lammtarra and two of his sons Green Dancer (sire of Suave Dancer) and Caerleon (sire of Marienbard) sired winners of Europe’s premier all-aged race.  The impressive victory of Danedream (f. by Lomitas ex Danedrop by Danehill) saw another victory for his sireline as Lomitas is a son of Nijinsky’s Irish and French St Leger winning son Niniski.  Alas Lomitas died last year so he will not benefit from this victory.

Another grandson of Nijinsky sired a big winner when Kasbah Bliss (g. by Kahyasi ex Marital Bliss by Double Bed) won the marathon Prix du Cadran . In addition Nijinksy’s son Royal Academy is the broodmare sire of Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere winner Dabirsim (c by Hat Trick ex Rumoured by Royal Academy). The cap off the day, Nijinsky’s grandson Generous was broodmare sire of Prix de L’Opera winner Nahrain (. by Selkirk eg Bahr by Generous). All in all it was a welcome reminder of the positive influence of the last triple crown winner.

Super Sunday Silence

Dabirsim’s win in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere was another reminder of the possibilities of the Sunday Silence line. It is mystifying to me that the major European studs have not acted to secure a truly top class son of Japan’s greatest ever sire to make available an alternative sireline.  The possibilities were already shown by Divine Light who sired Natagora winner of the Cheveley Park and 1000 Guineas.  Lanwades (in the UK)  stand Vita Rosa and Darley France stand Layman, but neither could be considered amongst the best of the Sunday Silence’s as racehorses.

Dream Ahead

Dream Ahead (c. by Diktat ex Land of Dreams by Cadeaux Genereux) won his fifth Group 1 when edging out Goldikova in the Prix de la Foret. It was subsequently announced that he will be retiring to Ballylinch Stud in County Kilkenny Ireland at the end of the season.  His sire Diktat is now in Spain but if properly priced Dream Ahead should prove popular. For people who care about these things it is significant that if you go back 22 generations you will find that Dream Ahead’s sire line traces to the Godolphin Arabian, so he represents a good chance to continue that line in Europe.

Tangerine Trees

Tangerine Trees (g. by Mind Games ex Easy to Imagine by Cozzene) was a somewhat fortuitous winner of the Prix de l’Abbaye as the fast finishing Sole Power looked to be the best horse on the day. Tangerine Trees represents another sireline that has fallen out of fashion namely the Forli line which was once so popular down around Ballydoyle. However the reason why Mind Games is unfashionable is that he was a truly dreadful stallion with terrible percentages.  Thankfully he is now retired from active service.

Elusive Kate- Can’t escape Mr P.

Elusive Kate (f. by Elusive Quality ex Gout de Terroir by Lemon Drop Kid), could hardly be considered unfashionable being a daughter of Elusive Quality who stands at 50,000 USD and who is a stallion who is popular on both sides of the Atlantic. Elusive Kate has Mr Prospector on both sides of the pedigree as Elusive Quality traces to Mr Pr via Gone West and Lemon Drop Kid is a son Kingmambo by Mr P.  The prominence of Mr Prospector is not nearly as pronounced in Europe as it is in the States.

Nahrain for Varian

Nahrain (f. by Selkirk ex Bahr by Generous) just defeated her half sister Announce (f. by Selkirk ex Hachita by Gone West) in the Prix de L’Opera. In winning she gave her trainer Roger Varian the first of what are likely to be many Group 1 wins. The veteran Selkirk is from the Sharpen Up line and has now sired 14 Group 1 winners, 10 of which are fillies and again although he could never be called unfashionable he perhaps never got the credit he deserved.

Conclusions

Sunday’s results do not mark the end of the domination of Europe by the Sadler’s Wells and Danzig lines.  However it is a useful reminder to European breeders and buyers that there are a lot more ways of breeding a top class racehorse than through the ultra fashionable sire lines. As the French might say vive la difference!

Stowaway revealed

 Jumps sires are often dead or infirm by the time their merits become apparent.  Stowaway has just turned 17 so given average luck he should be active for another 4 or 5 years (hopefully more).  His merits are now becoming abundantly clear and National Hunt breeders should be placing him near the top of their lists when planning their future matings. Use him before we lose him is my advice.

Statistics

Stowaway is currently lying in 70th position in the Anglo-Irish jumps list with earnings of around £100,000. He has had 7 winners from 23 runners (30%). In 2009/2010 he finished in 170th position with total earnings of £76,648 and 3 winners from 22 runners (14%). In 2008/2009 he finished in 218th position with total earnings of £57,513 and 5 winners from 21 runners (24%).  “So what?” , would be most people’s response to these figures. However in this case the statistics tell an incomplete story. His winners to runners percentages are not particularly great but they mask the quality of some of the individuals that are now coming through. In addition the mares he initially covered were extremely modest as you would expect from a covering fee of €600.  Also Stowaway did not commence stud duties until 2001 so his oldest progeny have just turned 9.

Shark Hanlon and Stowaway

January 23rd 2011 saw Stowaway record a major double at Leopardstown. Hidden Cyclone (ex Hurricane Debbie by Shahanndeh) was a good winner of a Grade 2 Novice hurdle over 2 1/2 miles.  He was introduced into the betting for the Neptune Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham but his trainer John Joseph aka ‘Shark’ Hanlon feels that in time he will make a top class staying chaser. Shark Hanlon also trained the bumper winner Mart Lane (ex Western Whisper by Supreme Leader) who is also under consideration for Cheltenham.  Mart Lane is a full brother to the best horse sired to date by Stowaway in Western Leader (ex Western Whisper by Supreme Leader) who has won four times including a Grade 2 hurdle, prior to running second at Aintree in the Sefton hurdle.  All of these horses were bred by Ronnie O’Neill who stands Stowaway in Whytemount Stud in Kilkenny and who was the primary supporter in the early years. For good measure Stowaway Pearl (ex Kelly’s Pearl by Miner’s Lamp) won at Thurles on the 10th February and he is also trained by Shark Hanlon who has been key to the rise of Stowaway.

Stowaway race record

Stowaway was first seen on the racecourse as a two year old in October 1996, when he made a winning debut in a mile maiden at Newcastle for trainer Michael Jarvis. The potential he showed that day meant that he was transferred to Godolphin for the rest of his career.  He was beaten on his reappearance at three but then stepped up in class to win the Group 3 Gordon Stakes at Goodwood over 12 furlongs. He followed up in August by winning the Group 2 Voltigeur Stakes from Derby runner-up Silver Patriarch. The St Leger is the traditional target of Voltigeur winners and it was talked about for Stowaway but he failed to make it to Doncaster and in his absence the classic was won by Silver Patriarch. The Champion Stakes saw him return to action that season. He did respectably, finishing fourth behind Pilsudski over a trip short of his best but still finishing ahead of the likes of Derby winner Benny the Dip and Group 1 winners Revoque and Bijou D’Inde.

 Stowaway spent the winter in Dubai and made a winning reappearance in the Dubai Sheema Classic at Nad Al Sheba.  However this was before that race attained graded status. Alas this also proved to be  his last racecourse appearance. His career finished with a record of four wins from six runs and he had proven himself to be amongst the best of his generation. However it was also a career that seemed to fall short of its potential. He seemed an ideal candidate for the St Leger but never got the opportunity to compete in that classic. He never got the opportunity to run beyond 12 furlongs and he seemed a likely sort to improve with age but we never really saw that assumption tested. In addition he never raced on ground worse than good, but race reports filed after his maiden indicate that he had a high knee action so he should have been suited by softer ground.

Stowaway’s Pedigree

Sire: Slip Anchor

Stowaway is a son of the runaway 1985 Derby winner Slip Anchor.   Slip Anchor did not follow on from his sire  and grandsire in throwing a Derby winner but he compiled a reasonable record from his time at stud. From 586 foals he had 302 winners(52%) and 28 (5%) stakes winners.  His best offspring included Oaks, Irish Oaks and St Leger winner User Friendly (ex Rostova by Blakeney), Italian Derby winner and Irish Derby runner-up Morshdi (ex Reem Albaraari by Sadler’s Wells), Italian Group 1 winner and Hardwicke Stakes winner Posidonas (ex Tamassos by Dance in Time) and Melbourne Cup runner-up Give the Slip (ex Falafil by Fabulous Dancer).  His best offspring weren’t precocious, stayed well and tended to be durable. The average winning distance of his offspring is a very high at 12.4 furlongs.  Slip Anchor’s stud fee began at £30,000 in 1987 before dropping to £25000 in 1989, £20000 in 1990. He was available at 3-4k throughout the noughties before his retirement from stud duties in 2007.

Dam: On Credit

On Credit, the dam of Stowaway showed high class form in France. She won as a juvenile, won twice over 10 furlongs at three and was twice runner-up in editions of the 11 furlong Group 3 Prix Fille de L’Air. She is also a half sister to Falafil (by Fabulous Dancer) the dam of the previously mentioned Give the Slip (by Slip Anchor). At stud she is also the dam of Credit-A-Plenty (by Generous) who was runner up in the Group 3 Park Hill Stakes.  Stowaway’s grand-dam Noble Tiara was twice a winner( over 10 and 12 furlongs) from nine starts she made as a three year old. This was her only season to race but aside from winning she placed fourth in both the Prix de Flore (Gr3) and Prix de Royallieu (Gr3). On Credit was a daughter of French Guineas winner, No Pass No Sale a son of Northfields. Slip Anchor worked well with Northfields and from only 7 horses bred on this cross they included Slicious (ex Precious Jade) winner of a Group 1 Premio Roma and Anchorite (ex Elysian) who was a high class two year old.

The secret of Success

Stowaway’s success has taken people by surprise.  At the time of his arrival at Whytemount Stud in 2001, it had been three years since he had set foot on a racecourse. Understandably there weren’t big queues of breeders to use this forgotten horse. His initial crop sizes numbered 30 with many of these mares being provided by the horses new owner, Ronnie O’Neill.  Following some success he secured 120 mares in 2009 and this rose to 200 mares in 2010 at a heady €1000 service fee. His fee for 2011 is listed as private, but even if the fee is trebled or quadrupled it may still represent value.

Understanding his success may be easier than we think.  It is well to remember what a high class racehorse he was and it is certainly likely that we never saw the best of him.  Physically he is a big good looking bay. His sire is a potent influence for stamina and the Mill Reef line is responsible for plenty of high profile National Hunt sires.  He has covered mostly moderate mares and made the most of his opportunities.  There is no secret to his success apart from his own abilities.

Nicks and the future

Stowaway seems to throw winners to all sorts of lines.  An unfamiliar name that occurs a lot amongst his offspring as broodmare sire is Shahanndeh (Assert ex Shademah by Thatch) who was a half brother to Sharastani who previously stood at Whytemount Stud and was the sire of many of his earlier mates.  Apart from Presenting the Irish national hunt stallion scene is dominated by sons of Sadler’s Wells. Given the success enjoyed on the flat by crossing Sadlers Well’s and Shirley Heights line mares it seems natural that many of these mares will be tried with Stowaway. His first 3 figure sized crop are now yearlings so it will take a few years to make an impact on the track. In the meantime, breeders should take advantage of his availability and I am confident that he will be highly placed on the sires table throughout the mid to late years of this decade.

STOWAWAY (GB) 1994

Slip
Anchor (GB) 1982
Shirley
Heights (GB) 1975
Mill
Reef (USA) 1968
Never
Bend (USA) 1960
Milan
Mill (USA) 1962
Hardiemma
(GB) 1969
Hardicanute
(GB) 1962
Grand
Cross (GB) 1952
Sayonara
(GER) 1965
Birkhahn
(GER) 1945
Alchimist
(GER) 1930
Bramouse
(FR) 1936
Suleika
(GER) 1954
Ticino
(GER) 1939
Schwarzblaurot
(GER) 1947
On
Credit (FR) 1988
No
Pass No Sale (IRE) 1982
Northfields
(USA) 1968
Northern
Dancer (CAN) 1961
Little
Hut (USA) 1952
No
Disgrace (IRE) 1976
Djakao
(FR) 1966
Exbury
Grace (FR) 1970
Noble
Tiara (USA) 1981
Vaguely
Noble (GB) 1965
Vienna
(GB) 1957
Noble
Lassie (GB) 1956
Tayyara
(IRE) 1975
Targowice
(USA) 1970
Shahla
(IRE) 1968

Firm Conclusions about Royal Ascot 2010

Royal Ascot 2010 provided enough material for a book, never mind a blog entry. Trying to summarise the five days racing comprising 30 races, 7 group 1’s and 7 group 2’s is difficult. I went to the trouble of looking at the ninety placed horses over the meeting and comparing the results against the number of runners for each sire. The results are shown below and include a few surprises.

Sire Placed Horses Total Runners
Galileo  6  17
 Danehill Dancer  5  12
 Singspiel  5  9
 Rock of Gibraltar  4  7
 Cape Cross  3  9
 Choisir  3  4
 Dansili  3  7
 Exceed and Excel  3  11
 Oasis Dream  3  12
 Dubawi  2  6
 Green Desert  2  7
 Medicean  2  6
 Pivotal  2  8
 Silvano  2  2
     

 Galileo top of the charts but ..

Galileo emerges as top of the lists for placed horses but even more so for runners. I would not say he had a particularly good Royal Ascot. Age of Aquarius (ex Clara Bow by Top Ville)ran a fine race in the Gold Cup (20 furlongs) and he was followed home by Purple Moon (ex Vanishing Prairie by Alysheba). Mikhail Glinka (ex Lady Karr by Mark of Esteem) just touched off Theology ( ex Biographie by Mtoto) in the 16 furlong Queens Vase.  These quality stayers are worthy of admiration but breeders are not paying c.175k for Galileo’s services in the hope of getting such a stayer. Galileo’s list of placed performers was completed by Gile na Greine (ex Scribonia by Danehill) who ran a fine second in the Coronation Stakes and Gallic Star (ex Oman Sea by Rahy) who was third in the Ribbesdale.

Danehill Dancer

Danehill Dancer had a good Royal Ascot. Lilly Langtry (ex Hoity Toity by Darshaan) was a good winner of the Coronation Stakes and he produced a promising two year old filly in Memory (ex Nausicaa by Diesis) who won the Albany stakes (Gr 3).  Quadrille (ex Fictitious by Machiavellian) was placed in a listed race and Imposing and Himalya were placed in handicaps. Better still his reputation as a sire of sires was significantly enhanced through the exploits of Choisir and another unfashionable sire son Monsieur Bond had a runner placed in the Queen Mary Stakes.

Singspiel still producing the goods

Singspiel also had five horses placed but from only nine runners. Singspiel’s offspring really love fast ground and he again emphasised why he is regarded as a fillies sire with a 1-2 in the Ribbesdale Stakes through Hibaayeb (ex Lady Zonda by Lion Cavern) and Eldalil (ex White House by Pursuit of Love). Recent reports indicate that his stud career may be at end due to declining fertility and if so he will be sorely missed as he was a great value stallion.

Rock of Gibraltar- yet to find his level

Rock of Gibraltar had a good Royal Ascot but his achievements tend to be slightly below the radar.  Society Rock (ex High Society by Key of Luck) was a fine second in the Golden Jubilee and Jacqueline Quest (ex Croquette Rouge by Croco Rouge) showed her Guineas run was no fluke by finishing third in the Coronation. In addition Rock Jock (ex Perfect Touch by Miswaki) was third in the Jersey Stakes (Gr 3) and London Stripe (ex Agenda by Sadler’s Wells) was second in the King George handicap. He is a decent stallion but his fee needs to come down from €22500 to around €15000.

Choisir – stallion of the week

What a difference a week makes. Like most people I had totally written off Choisir and the fact that he was no longer shuttling to the Northern hemisphere was a blessing. Now I’m not so certain anymore. Starspangledbanner (ex Gold Anthem by Made of Gold) was extremely impressive in the Golden Jubilee and in the Wokingham, Laddies Poker Two (ex Break of Day by Favorite Trick) showed herself to be much more than just a handicapper. For good measure the two year old Reckless Reward (ex Champagne Toni by Second Empire) was second in the Norfolk (Group 2) and his only other runner at the meeting, Stimulation (ex Damiana by Thatching) ran a career best when a close fourth in the Princess of Wales over 10 furlongs.

Dansili- almost the stallion of the week

With three winners Dansili had a fine week. Harbinger (ex Penang Pearl by Bering) was impressive in the Hardwicke Stakes and is capable of winning at Group 1 level. Strawberrydaiquiri (ex Strawberry Morn by Travelling Victor) was a game winner of the Windsor Forest Stakes and Dandino won the King George handicap.  With his better crops coming on stream his place at the top table is assured.

Oasis Dream and Dubawi- the run continues

It was also a good week for the winning producing machine that is Oasis Dream. Approve (ex Wyola by Sadler’s Wells) won the Nofolk Stakes(Gr. 2)  and Rainfall (ex Molomo by Barathea) won the Jersey Stakes. Similarly Dubawi showed his class and versatility.  Monterosso (ex Porto Roca by Barathea) continued his improvement and put himself in line for a tilt at the Irish Derby by winning the 12 furlong King Edward Stakes and Afsare (ex Jumaireyah by Fairy King) also showed improvement to win the listed Hampton Court Stakes.

Exceed and Excel

Exceed and Excel has built his reputation as a sire of two year olds. He didn’t do that reputation any harm by having three two year old’s placed in the course of the meeting.

Sireline of the week

This goes to Danehill. Four of his sons did well namely Danehill Dancer, Rock of Gibraltar, Exceed and Excel and Dansili. In addition Danehill Dancer’s son Choisir had a stellar week.

Disappointment of the week

We always keep an eye on Montjeu’s offspring. He had 12 runners over the week and none of them finished better than fifth. We can only blame the firm going.

Lope de Vega- something to write about

Lope de Vega was a celebrated Spanish writer, ranked almost the equal of Cervantes and the author of an incredible 1800 plays (thanks Wikipedia). Last weekend’s French Guineas (Poule d’Essai des Poulains) saw another Lope de Vega defeat Dick Turpin by half a length.  The equine Lope is unlikely to achieve evarlasting fame but on a line through Dick Turpin there is currently little between him and Makfi at the top of the European rankings for milers.

Lope de Vega- performance to date

Lope de Vega was a very useful two year old winning his first two starts before winding up his season with a close fourth behind Siyouni in the Grand Criterium. He was third, beaten only half a length on his seasonal reappearance in the Prix de Fontainbleu before his half length success in the Poule D’Essai des Poulains.  In the aftermath of his victory it was stated that he would be aimed at the 10 furlongs of the French Derby. On pedigree, he should have a reasonable chance of getting the additional two furlongs.

Lope de Vega- bred for the French Guineas

In some respects Lope de Vega was bred for the French Guineas. His sire Shamardal won the race in 2005 and his broodmare sire Vettori won the 1995 edition of the race. In addition his grandam Lady Golconda is a daughter of Kendor who won the 1989 renewal.  Furthermore Rahy is the broodmare sire of Giants Causway and Rahy is a son of Blushing Groom the winner of the 1977 renewal.

Shamardal’s racing career

Shamardal was unbeaten on turf, winning the Dewhurst at two for Mark Johnston, before winning the French Guineas (from the luckless Indesatchel ridden by Jamie (Frank) Spencer) at three. He followed up in the first 10 furlong French Derby defeating the fast finishing Hurricane Run.  In the case of both French classics he benefitted from canny rides from Frankie Dettori.  Just 9 days after the French Derby he contested the St James Palace Stakes and he put up an extremely impressive performance that marked him out as an outstanding performer. Unfortunatley it proved to be his last race.

Shamardal’s life story was certainly interesting as he was diagnosed as a wobbler, his first owner Abdulla Buhaleeba sold him at the end of his two year old career after reputedly incurring significant casino losses. He was by Coolmores Giant’s Causeway out of a sister to Godolphins Street Cry, but Coolmore passed him over at the Houghton Sales after failing an endoscopic test. He was the star of Giant’s Causeway’s first crop that also featured Footstepsinthesand and Karen’s Caper.

Shamardal’s stud career

Shamardal’s first crop 143 was conceived off a fee of €40,000. From that crop Arctic was a group 3 winner in Ireland before disappointing somewhat in the Middle Park stakes. Shakespearean won the Solario Stakes and followed up in the Goffs million.  As three year olds Siyaadah won the UAE 1000 Guineas and Zazou won a German Group 3 before coming a close sixth behind Lope de Vega in the Franch Guineas.  From his time in Australia he is represented by Faint Perfume who is a dual Group 1 winner including the Crown Oaks over 12 and half furlongs. He is currently listed as €20000 and should be popular at that price as he is delivering plenty of stakes horses.

Lady Vettori

Lady Vettori, the dam of Lope de Vega won  her first five races as a two year old including the Group 3 Prix du Calvados. She finished her season with a highly creditable third in the Prix Marcel Boussac. She ran just once at three when just touched off in the Prix Imprudence. At stud she had four foals prior to Lope de Vega, the best of whom was Bal de la Rose (by Cadeuax Genereux) who was a 10 furlong Group 3 winner. Lady Vettori is herself a half sister to a stakes performer in Rosey de Megeve (by Efisio) and there are some decent connections further back in the pedigree. However, overall it is not a particularly high class family and it was her racing merit not her pedigree that saw Lady Vettori sold for €500,000 in December 2005.

Conclusion.

His run in the French Guineas represented a career best performance for Lope de Vega. His manner of victory was not overly impressive and he will probably need to show further improvement if he is to succeed in his stated target of the French Derby.  He is a nice advert for his sire Shamardal who is one of the leading lights of a bunch of highly promising new sires to burst on the scene. His dam Lady Vettori owned a modest enough pedigree but she was a superior racehorse and she can certainly take her share of the credit for her sons success.  Machiavellian appears 3*3 in the pedigree as broodmare sire of Shamardal and sire of Vettori but rather than reading too much into that I think we can just credit the combination of a much better than average sire and dam.

LOPE DE VEGA (IRE) 2007 c ch

Shamardal
(USA) 2002
Giant’s
Causeway (USA) 1997
Storm
Cat (USA) 1983
Storm
Bird (USA) 1978
Terlingua
(USA) 1976
Mariah’s
Storm (USA) 1991
Rahy
(USA) 1985
Immense
(USA) 1979
Helsinki
(GB) 1993
Machiavellian
(USA) 1987
Mr
Prospector (USA) 1970
Coup
De Folie (USA) 1982
Helen
Street (GB) 1982
Troy
(GB) 1976
Waterway
(FR) 1976
Lady
Vettori (GB) 1997
Vettori
(IRE) 1992
Machiavellian
(USA) 1987
Mr
Prospector (USA) 1970
Coup
De Folie (USA) 1982
Air
Distingue (USA) 1980
Sir
Ivor (USA) 1965
Euryanthe
(USA) 1975
Lady
Golconda (FR) 1992
Kendor(FR) 1986 Kenmare
(FR) 1975
Belle
Mecene (FR) 1982
Lady
Sharp (FR) 1981
Sharpman
(IRE) 1976
Golondrina
(FR) 1970

A vintage crop?

When we think of races involving horses that became successful stallions, the standout event is the 1984 French Derby that famously saw Darshaan defeat Sadler’s Wells and Rainbow Quest.  The 1996 July Cup won by Anabaa, had Danehill Dancer and Pivotal back in fifth and sixth places.  It is early days yet, but we might soon be adding races from the 2005 season to the above list as the likes of Dubawi, Shamardal,  Oratorio, Motivator and Footstepsinthesand were all in their classic year, whilst Azamour was enjoying a very successful four year old season. Arakan never competed against the aforementioned horses but he is also enjoying a good start with his first three year olds.

The above thoughts are prompted by the results of the French 2000 Guineas which resulted in a 1-2-3 for second season sires with Lope de Vega (by Shamardal), defeating Dick Turpin (Arakan ex Merrily by Sharood) and Shamalgan (Footstepsinthesand ex Genevale by Unfuwain). Following on from the classic successes of Dubawi’s offspring Makfi and Worthadd and some promising results for Azamour and Oratorio, it looks as if we have an unusually large number of promising sires coming on stream at once. It is much too early to be dogmatic about any of these sires but we can make some reasonable assumptions.

1. Arakan is the least likely to succeed. In one sense he has already surpassed expectations and he has sired a horse (Dick Turpin) of superior racing merit to himself. Arakan never won above Group 3 level despite being kept in training until the age of five, and as a son of Nureyev (who many regard with suspicion as a sire of sires) he didn’t immediately appeal as a likely sire success. The challenge will be to remain above the radar for the next few years until he can hopefully capitalise on the success of Dick Turpin.

2. Motivator has been plagued by bad luck. Injury restricted his first crop size and he has now missed the 2010 breeding season.  He had some promising two year olds last year notably Pollenator and Prompter and he seems capable of getting a decent horse but in a fickle market place he needs a big horse to appear quickly.

3. Azamour seems the best source of quality stamina at this stage. Despite being a son of Night Shift who sired more than his fair share of sprinters the early signs are that Azamours progeny will stay as well as he did himself. To date he has sired two Derby trial winners in Azmeel and Puncher Clynch. Eleanora Duse also ran well when a close third in the Musidora Stakes.

4.  Darley are currently outscoring Coolmore amongst the younger brigade.  The achievements to date of Dubawi outrank those of any of the other sires listed. Shamardal has also achieved more than  Coolmore’s Oratorio or Footstepsinthesand.  Coolmore will be hoping that Steinbeck can be the big horse that Footstepsinthesand needs, whereas Oratorio looks as if he has a good spread of possible top horses with Lolly for Dolly being a contender for the Irish Guineas and Fencing Master and Beethoven could add to last years achievements.  I doubt if they are panicking in Tipperary but it does seem to be a few years since they have added a real star to their roster.

Dubious about Dubai but not Dubawi

From the 22nd of January to the 7th of February, Dubawi had six runners on the all-weather. All six won. The six victories earned the lucky owners £15,811, an average of £2,635 or $4,130 per victory. These are the amounts before deductions for the winning trainers, jockeys and stable staff and before entry fees,riding fees and travel costs are taken into account. If the owners netted £1,400 ($2,192) per victory they would be doing well.

Meanwhile in Dubai, Dubawi’s owner Sheikh Mohammed unveiled the Meydan track. Press reviews were very positive. Estimates of its construction cost ranged from $1.25 billion to $2.4 billion. It has a 1km long grandstand and seating for 60,000.  It will do well to even cover its running costs as general admission is free (but there is a charge for the grandstand). Gambling is prohibited so there is no revenue from that quarter.  It is intended as a visitor attraction and showcase for Dubai which is another way of saying that no one was ever asked to justify the cost. Meydan replaces the Nad Al Sheba track (which had world class facilities) and to me this development represents the most obscene folly and waste of resources imaginable.

 It may not be considered appropriate to criticise the man who has invested more than anyone else in the racing industry for the past three decades but this was utter madness.  In order to pay for his monument to folly Sheikh Mohammed will have to win one million races on the all-weather. Is there a better indicator of the wasteful excesses of the middle-eastern rulers and the pitiful prize-money in the UK, than this fact?

None of Duabwi’s 5 individual winners (Duellist, Monterosso, Your Lad, Ostentation and Solstice) are likely to become celebrated names in the history of the turf. However signs are promising for Dubawi to become a significant new stallion from what looks like becoming an exceptional crop of stallions foaled in 2002 (others included Shamardal, Oratario, Footstepsinthesand and  Motivator). In addition he looks like he will overtake Nayef, Medicean and Zamindar as being the best Mr Prospector line stallion (with runners to date) standing in Europe.

Dubawi’s Racecourse Career

Dubawi was the first of Dubai Millennium’s offspring to appear on the racetrack and no doubt it was very pleasing to Sheikh Mohammed to see him make a winning debut at Goodwood in June. He followed up in the Group 3 Superlative stakes at Newmarket and concluded his unbeaten two year old season with a victory in the Group 1 National Stakes at the Curragh. His victories had been achieved on ground that varied from good to firm to yielding at the Curragh. He went into winter quarters as a leading classic prospect and indeed such was their regard for Dubawi, Godophin went and purchased Berenson who was runner-up in the National Stakes.  Berenson became another victim of the ‘big blue hole’ that is Godolphin and was never seen on the racecourse again.

Dubawi wintered in Dubai and such was his work and performance in some of Godolphins private trials that he started favourite for the 2000 Guineas. He finished fifth behind Footstepsinthesand but was beaten only three lengths. His defeat was blamed on the good to firm ground. He resumed winning ways and achieved an impressive classic success in the Irish Guineas on good ground, defeating Oratario by two lengths. He was then sent to Epsom where he ran creditably to be third behind Motivator, but it was obvious that 12 furlongs was farther than optimal. Given a break until August he reappeared in the Jacques le Marois and he put up his best ever performance in defeating Whipper, Valixir and the previously undefeated Divine Proportions. Dubawi was next seen in the QEII at Ascot and he was made favourite and expected to wrap-up the title of European champion miler. Instead he was beaten 3/4’s of a length by the five year old Starcraft with many people questioning Frankie Dettori’s tactics.

That proved to be Dubawi’s final racecourse appearance. He never made the Breeders Cup and retired as the winner of five of his 8 starts including three Group 1’s. He had shown brilliance but also quirkiness as he had drifted across the track on a number of occasions (a tendency he shared with another son of Dubai Millennium now at stud, Echo of Light). He seemed versatile as to the going with only firm ground (as in the Guineas) being unsuitable.  He was clearly a brilliant miler, he had shown guts in running well over 12 furlongs at Epsom and it was surprising that he was never asked to run over 10 furlongs, a distance that would have seemed ideal for him.

Pedigree

As could be expected of any representative of Dubai Millennium’s only crop, Dubawi owns an impressive pedigree. His dam Zomaradah went from winning a maiden to winning the Italian Oaks. She subsequently maintained a high level of form adding Group successes in the EP Taylor stakes, the Royal Whip and the Premio Lydia Tesio and she finished a close third in the 1999 Breeders Cup Fillies & Mares Turf. Zomaradah ranks as the best offspring of Deploy (by Shirley Heights)who was runner-up in the Irish Derby and who was just one of the many celebrated offspring of Slightly Dangerous.

Dubawi’s granddam Jawaher ran five times without success but she was a daughter of High Tern who produced Derby winner High Rise (by High Estate by Shirley Heights).  Dubawi’s 4th dam Sunbittern is the dam of classic placed High Hawk (by Shirley Heights) and High Hawk was subsequently dam of In The Wings. No doubt all these Shirley Heights connections led to the selection of Deploy as a mate for Jawaher.

Dubai Millemmium left behind only 56 foals before his premature death. Dubawi was his only Group 1 winner and he was supported by the Group 2 winner (and nutcase) Echo of Light and Group 3 winner Belenus. After his death Sheikh Mohammed set about buying all the offspring of his favourite horse.  In hindsight with 9% black type winners Dubai Millennium had the makings of a very good but unexceptional sire given the opportunities he was afforded.

 Dubawi’s stud career to date

Dubawi’s first runners last year saw him crowned champion first season sire by winners (34). In addition to quantity his first crop included Group 2 winners Poet’s Voice (ex Bright Tiara by Chief’s Crown) and Sand Vixen (ex Fur Will Fly by Petong). This crop was conceived off an initial fee of £25000 and this remained his fee in 2007. He spent the 2008 season in Kildangan in Ireland at €40,000 before returning to Dalham Hall for 2009 season at a fee of £15000.  His initial success has seen this rise ot £20000 for the current season which seems quite reasonable to me. Dubawi has also shuttled to Australia and his first crop of two year olds are also now making a mark with Cellarmaster recently winning a Group 3 in New Zealand and finishing runner-up in a Group 2.

Conclusion.

It would be foolish to put too much weight on a flurry of low level winners at this time of the year. However it is certainly encouraging that Dubawi is maintaining his momentum as his runners mature from two to three.  As a sire he can offer breeders a very good prospect of getting a winner and a reasonable prospect of a high class winner at that.  The best is yet to come and if Sheikh Mohammed wants to take his mind off Dubai’s debt crisis and his own profligacy he can console himself with the thought that he controls one of the most promising young stallions in Europe.

 

 

DUBAWI (IRE) 2002 c b

Dubai
Millennium (GB) 1996
Seeking
The Gold (USA) 1985
Mr
Prospector (USA) 1970
Raise
A Native (USA) 1961
Gold
Digger (USA) 1962
Con
Game (USA) 1974
Buckpasser
(USA) 1963
Broadway
(USA) 1959
Colorado
Dancer (IRE) 1986
Shareef
Dancer (USA) 1980
Northern
Dancer (CAN) 1961
Sweet
Alliance (USA) 1974
Fall
Aspen (USA) 1976
Pretense
(USA) 1963
Change
Water (USA) 1969
Zomaradah
(GB) 1995
Deploy
(GB) 1987
Shirley
Heights (GB) 1975
Mill
Reef (USA) 1968
Hardiemma
(GB) 1969
Slightly
Dangerous (USA) 1979
Roberto
(USA) 1969
Where
You Lead (USA) 1970
Jawaher
(IRE) 1989
Dancing
Brave (USA) 1983
Lyphard
(USA) 1969
Navajo
Princess (USA) 1974
High
Tern (IRE) 1982
High
Line (GB) 1966
Sunbittern
(GB) 1970

2010- the year of Montjeu?

The future looks very bright for Montjeu. We commented on St Nicholas Abbey after his win in the Beresford and he then followed up with a very impressive performance in the Racing Post Trophy. He was priced at 5/2 for Epsom which was understandable given the manner of his success and the fact that Montjeu’s previous Derby winners Authorized and Motivator both also triumphed at Doncaster. One week later and Montjeu produces another potential superstar when Jan Vermeer put up a superb front running performance in Criterium International at Saint Cloud. Joshua Tree had earlier won the Group 2 Royal Lodge meaning that Ballydoyle is host to three top two year old colts by Montjeu. In all cases the horses have what you might call ‘upper middle class’ rather than stellar pedigrees…

St Nicholas Abbey-pedigree.

Leaping Water, the dam of St Nicholas Abbey was unraced. She was by Sure Blade who won a QEII over a mile. However like many sons of Kris, he was a disappointing sire with Needle Gun being his only really top class performer.  Leaping Water is already the dam of Grammarian (by Definite Article) who was a dual Grade 2 winner in the States. She is also the dam of Cascata (by Montjeu)who won on her debut last year for Luca Cumani but has failed to build on it this year. Interestingly she cost 95,000 Guineas as a yearling compared to St Nicholas Abbey who cost 200,000 guineas.

St Nicholas Abbey’s granddam Flamenco Wave was a top class 2yo winning the Moyglare Stakes for John Oxx but she failed to train on. At stud she has been a major success becoming dam of Group 1 winners Starborough (by Soviet Star), Aristotle (Sadler’s Wells) and Ballingarry (Sadler’s Wells). Given the family’s success with Sadler’s Wells the decision to choose Montjeu was hardly surprising. It has now paid off handsomely and I expect St Nicholas Abbey to follow in the hoofprints of Motivator and Authorized and gain Epsom success.

Jan Vermeer pedigree

Jan Vermeer never passed through a sales ring but on pedigree his price would have been unlikely to exceed the 200,000 guineas paid for St Nicholas Abbey. His dam Shadow Song won over 11 furlongs in France and Jan Vermeer is her first foal. She is by Pennekamp who won the Dewhurst and Guineas but he disappointed as a sire and to date he hasn’t made much impact as a broodmare sire.  Shadow Song is a half sister to Midnight Air who was a top class 2yo. Midnight Air retired as the winner of the May Hill Stakes but she was also first past the post in the Fillies Mile before being demoted to last by the stewards . Their dam Evening Air was unraced and her dam Nellie Forbes only raced twice. Going further back Jan Vermeer’s 4th dam Comely Nell was also unraced but it didn’t stop her entering the history books as the dam of Bold Forbes who won a Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes in 1976.

Montjeu vs Galileo

 Jan Vermeer and St Nicholas Abbey have shown comparable levels of form. That said I believe the turn of foot shown by St Nicholas Abbey to quicken from last to first was more impressive than the all the way success of Jan Vermeer.  Talk of St Nicholas Abbey being a Guineas contender is far from fanciful. I for one would love to see such a success as I think it would end the debate over who is a better sire -Montjeu or Galileo. Currently Montjeu has a major gap on his cv with his failure to sire any top milers but apart from that I rate his overall achievments more highly than those of Galileo.   Montjeu has outperformed Galileo in the major classics, despite smaller foal numbers and lesser mares. He has also significantly outperformed Galileo in the Southern Hemisphere. However fashion and Coolmore have dictated that a sire like Galileo who can also sire the occasional top miler and the occasional top 2yo is to be given top billing. Even after his breakthrough success in 2005 Montjeu had to play second fiddle to Sadler’s Wells.  There is no shame in that but from 2006 onwards he has been competing somewhat unsuccessfully with Galileo for the elite mares. That to me is a shame as I think Montjeu deserves to be regarded as the best stallion in Ireland. Hopefully 2010 will prove that point.

JAN VERMEER (IRE) 2007 c b

Montjeu
(IRE) 1996
Sadler’s
Wells (USA) 1981
Northern
Dancer (CAN) 1961
Nearctic
(USA) 1954
Natalma
(USA) 1957
Fairy
Bridge (USA) 1975
Bold
Reason (USA) 1968
Special
(USA) 1969
Floripedes
(FR) 1985
Top
Ville (IRE) 1976
High
Top (IRE) 1969
Sega
Ville (USA) 1968
Toute
Cy (FR) 1979
Tennyson
(FR) 1970
Adele
Toumignon (IRE) 1971
Shadow
Song (IRE) 2002
Pennekamp
(USA) 1992
Bering
(GB) 1983
Arctic
Tern (USA) 1973
Beaune
(FR) 1974
Coral
Dance (FR) 1978
Green
Dancer (USA) 1972
Carvinia
(FR) 1970
Evening
Air (USA) 1982
J
O Tobin (USA) 1974
Never
Bend (USA) 1960
Hill
Shade (USA) 1965
Nellie
Forbes (USA) 1977
Secretariat
(USA) 1970
Comely
Nell (USA) 1962

 

ST NICHOLAS ABBEY (IRE) 2007 c b

Montjeu
(IRE) 1996
Sadler’s
Wells (USA) 1981
Northern
Dancer (CAN) 1961
Nearctic
(USA) 1954
Natalma
(USA) 1957
Fairy
Bridge (USA) 1975
Bold
Reason (USA) 1968
Special
(USA) 1969
Floripedes
(FR) 1985
Top
Ville (IRE) 1976
High
Top (IRE) 1969
Sega
Ville (USA) 1968
Toute
Cy (FR) 1979
Tennyson
(FR) 1970
Adele
Toumignon (IRE) 1971
Leaping
Water (GB) 1990
Sure
Blade (USA) 1983
Kris
(GB) 1976
Sharpen
Up (GB) 1969
Doubly
Sure (GB) 1971
Double
Lock (GB) 1975
Home
Guard (USA) 1969
St
Padina (GB) 1966
Flamenco
Wave (USA) 1986
Desert
Wine (USA) 1980
Damascus
(USA) 1964
Anne
Campbell (USA) 1973
Armada
Way (USA) 1976
Sadair
(USA) 1962
Hurry
Call (USA) 1960