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Category: Stallion Reviews

  • National Hunt Sire Lines- 1st Monsun, 2nd Montjeu, 3rd Galileo

    With the world in the grip of a pandemic, it may seem crass to write about something as trivial as horse racing, but we all need our distractions.

    I was asked via Twitter to look at the overall performance of grandsons of Galileo in National Hunt Racing (I recently wrote about their performance at Cheltenham). As the overuse of sons of Galileo is a bugbear of mine, I didn’t take much persuasion to accept the challenge.

    To make a meaningful comparison, I looked at the performance throughout the 2019/2020 season of sire sons of Galileo, Montjeu and Monsun. The numbers confirm that sire-sons of Galileo are nothing special in the world of National Hunt racing. In fact their performance is inferior to that of sires by Montjeu and especially by Monsun.

    Methodology:

    I looked at the sire standings for National Hunt in 2019/2020 for the top 550 sires from the Racing Post website. I then extracted and aggregated the results for the sons of Galileo, Montjeu and Monsun. The summary results are shown below:

    SIRELINEWnrsRnrsW/R %WinsRuns%Stks Wnrs
    GALILEO SIRES TOTAL12752224.3%174172110.1%11
    MONSUN SIRES TOTAL22479728.1%322263712.2%15
    MONTJEU SIRES TOTAL16561326.9%235202311.6%13

    Summary of Findings:

    Sons of Galileo fare poorly in terms of winners to runners and wins to runs compared with sons of Montjeu and especially sire sons of Monsun. There may be some reasons to account for the difference such as a younger age profile of the representatives of the Galileo tribe but there is nothing in the figures to suggest that National Hunt breeders should be flocking to sons of Galileo…

    Blindly believing in sire lines on the flat or in National hunt racing will lead to lots of disappointments. There are individual sons of Galileo who could be promising jumps sires (Nathaniel especially) but overall the figures suggest that most sons of Galileo are not that welcome an addition to National Hunt pedigrees. The real concern is that sending one third of mares to sons of Galileo may eventually cause long term damage the National hunt breed by narrowing the gene pool. National Hunt breeders may feel reassured in using sons of Galileo ( everyone else is doing it) , but as the Corona virus has shown, being part of the crowd isn’t always such a good idea….

    Detailed Workings: Stallions listed by their placing in the sires table by earnings- figures as shown on Racing Post website on 28/03/2020 and referring to UK and Irish earnings for 2019/2020 season

    RankStallionWnrsRnrsW/R %WinsRuns%Stks WnrsEarnings £
    13Mahler5321325%7275210%2£949,163
    49Nathaniel173944%2211719%4£328,541
    98Sixties Icon53415%71216%0£146,624
    114Rip Van Winkle102934%1410114%0£121,731
    135Sans Frontieres64115%91178%1£98,224
    141Teofilo83921%91257%1£92,078
    148New Approach72429%98211%0£87,972
    164Soldier Of Fortune31127%64513%1£71,857
    240Cima De Triomphe11100%2450%1£42,105
    246Imperial Monarch21613%4469%1£40,774
    253Australia3933%32811%0£37,282
    255Heliostatic3560%41233%0£36,694
    259Battle Of Marengo2633%42615%0£35,329
    294Finsceal Fior21217%32811%0£27,716
    390Vendangeur1425%1205%0£14,971
    435Frankel090%0240%0£11,521
    444Noble Mission1333%2633%0£11,039
    451Roderic O’Connor1714%1157%0£10,552
    465Intello090%0190%0£9,464
    485Feel Like Dancing11100%1520%0£8,178
    512Ruler Of The World1425%11010%0£6,607
    529Cape Blanco030%060%0£5,688
    537Red Rocks030%0120%0£5,478
    GALILEO SIRES TOTAL 12752224.3%174172110.1%11


    RankStallionWnrsRnrsW/R %WinsRuns%Stks WnrsEarnings £
    11Getaway7525829%9886611%5£1,100,603
    16Network216134%3219616%3£845,837
    29Arcadio3014121%454819%1£541,960
    30Shirocco3914826%5543613%2£531,547
    57Schiaparelli105020%141549%1£283,101
    63Gentlewave61250%83921%1£233,923
    72Samum4667%81942%1£201,211
    82September Storm93327%1714911%0£181,315
    133Salutino51436%116517%0£102,638
    149Aizavoski93030%127915%0£87,690
    167Manduro51436%84916%0£69,827
    220Noroit31619%4557%0£48,225
    254Lauro3560%41429%0£37,087
    264Axxos2367%21513%0£34,877
    303Ocovango1425%2825%1£26,632
    367Speedmaster22100%21217%0£17,480
    MONSUN SIRES TOTAL 22479728.1%322263712.2%15


    RankStallionWnrsRnrsW/R %WinsRuns%Stks WnrsEarnings £
    17Scorpion4218922%557198%1£810,218
    35Walk In The Park82730%98011%4£483,862
    36Fame And Glory3313624%4938013%1£473,569
    37Authorized225937%3220016%1£451,972
    77Pour Moi113037%189020%0£195,358
    92Montmartre72726%128814%2£155,773
    96Maxios81747%115122%1£150,255
    97Motivator72035%125920%1£148,850
    103Papal Bull83126%101139%1£139,334
    105Davidoff2540%41822%1£135,129
    120Jukebox Jury61060%123139%0£114,475
    153Camelot52818%5836%0£84,328
    352Honolulu2450%21020%0£19,342
    375Frozen Fire2633%22110%0£17,080
    400Hurricane Run0110%0320%0£14,439
    455Masked Marvel1250%1714%0£10,104
    461Spider Flight050%0200%0£9,735
    484Recital1617%1215%0£8,221
    MONTJEU SIRES TOTAL 16561326.9%235202311.6%13

  • Cheltenham 2020 and Galileo..

    I recently wrote about the deeply concerning rush by National Hunt breeders to use sons of Galileo https://www.montjeu.com/archives/1122. The results at Cheltenham don’t lessen that concern.

    Herd mentality will see one third of NH mares go to sons of Galileo this year. Looking at the results at Cheltenham, where Galileo had 3 runners and his sons sired 17 runners, there is nothing to justify such faith.

    Nathaniel did very well with 2 winners (albeit Burning Victory was fortunate that Goshen unseated) from 3 runners. However, he is a £25000 flat sire and if you take him out the results are very ordinary. If Irish and UK breeders want to reclaim some of the ground they have lost to French breds then they will have to put less trust in the adverts from the stud farms and look at supporting a more varied range of NH stallions… The full listing of runners by Galileo and his sons is shown below.

    HorseSirePositionRunnersClassType
    WhatsnotoknowMahler815Grade 1Hurdle
    SupasundaeGalileo717Grade 1Hurdle
    SacchoaandvanzettiFinsceal Fior1122Grade 3Hurdle
    Fraser IslandAustralia1822Grade 3Hurdle
    Ocean WindTeofilo623Grade 1NHF
    Mahler AllstarMahler1223Grade 1NHF
    Annie McMahler912Grade 1Chase
    Itchy FeetCima de Triompheur12Grade 1Chase
    ConcertistaNathaniel122Grade 2Hurdle
    Vienna CourtMahler822Grade 2Hurdle
    Bob MahlerMahler323HcpChase
    Deise AbaMahler523HcpChase
    Le MuseeGalileo1323HcpChase
    Like the SoundSoldier of Fortunepu23HcpChase
    Burning VictoryNathaniel113Grade 1Hurdle
    Navajo PassNathaniel413Grade 1Hurdle
    Lord LamingtonAustralia1013Grade 1Hurdle
    BuildmeupbuttercupSixties Icon324Grade 3Hurdle
    Chris’s DreamMahler1012Grade 1Chase
    Big BlueGalileo1923HcpHurdle

  • Galileo, Groupthink, National Hunt Breeding And A New Heresy….

    Back in 1633, Galileo was convicted of heresy for his espousal of the heliocentric view of the universe. He was sentenced to house arrest which lasted until his death in 1642.

    Sadler’s Wells transformed National Hunt breeding, so breeders seem to assume that Galileo will do the same. Here is my heresy; when it comes to National Hunt breeding, I don’t believe in Galileo… The Catholic Church admitted it was wrong in 1992. I wonder if it will take as long to admit to a mistake by National Hunt breeders?

    Grounds for Concern:

    1. Sadler’s Wells was a great sire of jumpers, Galileo isn’t.

    Looking at Racing Post Ratings, from 294 runners over jumps, Galileo has sired just two runners rated over 155, Celestial Halo on 167 and Supasundae on 165 . In contrast from 362 runners, Sadler’s Wells has 11 runners including the imperious Istabraq on 181, Synchronized on 171, Pridwell on 169, Essex on 165 and Theatreworld on 164 .

    Galileo also suffers in comparison with Montjeu. Montjeu had fewer National Hunt runners at 249, but has sired 8 horses rated 155 or above, headlined by Hurricane Fly on 173. To date sire sons of Montjeu have also achieved more than sons of Galileo in the National Hunt realm(eg Douvan, Min, Tiger Roll, Might Bite aka Does Bite) but that’s a discussion for another day. The fact that Galileo hasn’t sired good jumpers doesn’t mean that his sons won’t succeed, but it does create a doubt. Where there is doubt, you would expect caution but instead we have a reckless herd mentality on an almost unprecedented scale.

    2. Galileo’s National Hunt Stallion Sons are unproven

    Galileo has no proven, established National Hunt stallion sons. Mahler has made a good start (eg Chris’s Dream, Ornua) but not enough to warrant 227 mares in 2019. Soldier of Fortune attracted 275 mares in 2019 and 290 in 2018. That is a lot of faith to put in a stallion who still has to deliver a really top horse but who at least has Busted and Lord Gayle as his dams grand-sires.

    Displaying even more faith, but without a comparable female line or any racecourse evidence, were the 275 breeders who used Order of St George, the 225 who went to Idaho and the 190 mares who went to Telescope. That is around 1200 mares from those 5 sons of Galileo. Am I the only person who thinks this might be insane?

    3. The sheer scale of the problem

    Next season those five stallions will be joined by Leger winners Capri and Flag of Honour, who can both expect significant books. There are a host of others including Finsceal Fior, Imperial Monarch, Proconsul, Vendangeur, Sans Frontieres, Shantaram also in the marketplace. The total foal crop in the UK (4655) and Ireland (8788) in 2019 was 13,443 foals. In Britain it is estimated that 23% of the foal crop is intended as NH or dual purpose and in Ireland it is 48%. This would equate to 5,288 national hunt or dual purpose foals. We could be looking at over 1,700 or around one third of the National Hunt crop being by sons of Galileo.

    Conclusion:

    I’m sure that there will be many good horses sired by the sons of Galileo. The sheer weight of numbers make that almost inevitable. However, the percentages may be less than expected.

    No one is asking about the implications of having so many foals from the same sire line. Half of the foals will be fillies so we are the changing the National Hunt breed forever.

    French National Hunt breeding has outperformed the UK and Irish sectors over the past two decades. There are a lot of factors at play, but a willingness to embrace diversity in sire lines and smaller books that allow more stallions a chance have an impact. Irish breeders acting individually think they are being rational but the cumulative effect of their group-think could damage everyone in the National Hunt sector…

  • Ballylinch Stud’s 2020 fees reviewed

    Image result for ballylinch stud kilkenny
    An impartial review of their 2020 Stud Fees

    These are good times for Ballylinch Stud. Owned by American billionaire John Malone, the stud has assembled a small but select stallion roster. Lope de Vega’s reputation continues to climb and he is joined by some interesting younger prospects. They have secured a top class Arc winner in Waldgeist and they provide two nice Dubawi line stallions in Make Believe and New Bay. They provide some welcome competition in Ireland to the Coolmore and Darley mega-rosters.

    Fascinating Rock €7,000 (7,500) (2011 Fastnet Rock ex Miss Polaris by Polar Falcon

    Verdict (overpriced)

    Fascinating Rock has his first runners in 2020, so anyone using him this season is taking a gamble. There is no arguing with his ability as a racehorse, as he was high class at four and five winning a Champion Stakes and Tattersalls Gold Cup. Although not precocious, he won a couple of early season Derby trials at three. He was the first son of Fastnet Rock at stud in Europe. He has since been joined at stud by Merchant Navy at Coolmore and Fas in France. Both of these were sprinters but there are some stamina influences in Fascinating Rock including his grandam being by Ela Mana Mou. This might explain how his half brother Quick Jack (by Footstepsinthesand) won a Galway Hurdle. Overall, Fascinating Rock comes from an ordinary female line. He had a yearling median of 12,000 guineas in 2019 so the market is already circumspect about his prospects. I would have expected more of a fee reduction to entice breeders. He was well supported by his breeder Newtown Anner Stud but still ‘only’ had books of 62 and 64 mares in the past two years. I don’t see that number increasing in 2020.

    Lope de Vega €100,000 (80,000) (2007 Shamardal ex Lady Vettori by Vettori

    Verdict Good Value

    Lope de Vega has risen rapidly through the ranks. He stood for €15,000 in his first two seasons before dropping to €12,500 in 2013 and 2014 . He then went to €40,000 in 2015 and his fee has risen every subsequent season. 2019 saw him sire a major classic winner in Phoenix of Spain and there were Group 1’s for Zabeel Prince in France and Santa Ana Lane in Australia. Four stakes winning two year olds also contributed to a good season. The only real disappointment was the failure of juvenile superstar Newspaperofrecord to train on. Lope De Vega has credible percentages with 50 Black Type Winners from 645 foals of racing age in the Northern Hemisphere (8%) and this should improve, as more of his 2016 and 2017 crop win Stakes races. His sales record showed a median of 120,000 guineas for his yearlings last year (they were conceived off a €50,000 cover) and I expect his averages to continue to rise. He may not get the prettiest sales horses but purchasers now presumably realise that handsome is as handsome does. He is a versatile sire who gets two year olds , sprinters, milers and middle distance horses and to me his fee has a bit more to go before he is fully priced.

    Make Believe €12,000 (12,000) (2012 Makfi ex Rosie’s Posy by Suave Dancer

    Verdict Fairly Priced

    Make Believe won both his races at two before annexing the French Guineas and Prix de la Foret at three. He was a son of Guineas winner Makfi, who enjoyed only modest success in Europe. Make Believe comes from a good female line featuring names like Irish Guineas third My Branch and Tante Rose. Make Believe’s had 16, two year old winners from 51 runners out of a total crop size of 89 (a very high percentage of runners to foals). Encouragingly, those winners included Group 3 winners, Rose of Kildare and Ocean Fantasy and Listed winner Tammani. With so many two year old runners, trainers obviously viewed them as early types but I would expect them to improve with age.

    Despite the three stakes winners, he didn’t however prove popular at the yearling sales with a 2019 median of 19,500 Guineas (only 10,000 guineas for fillies). There is a great line in Blackadder where mad Captain Rum says ‘opinion is divided on the subject…. all the other captains say it is, I say it isn’t’ 🙂 In the case of Make Believe, I may be in a minority (and hopefully not mad), but I think the market has underestimated him and he is due a reassessment. If you are buying his offspring, there is value to be had…

    New Bay €15,000 (15,000) (2012 Dubawi ex Cinnamon Bay by Zamindar

    Verdict Overpriced (slightly)

    New Bay was high class from 8-12 furlongs. He won the Prix de Jockey Club, was runner up to Make Believe in the French Guineas and was a close third in the Arc to Golden Horn. As a son of Dubawi, improvement would have been expected in his four year old season, but instead he only added a weak Group 3 to his record. We were starting to wonder about stallion sons of Dubawi after relative disappointments such as Makfi, Poets Voice and Worthadd but now Night of Thunder looks like he could be the real deal. New Bay’s dam was a stakes winner and she is from one of the top Juddmonte family’s descending from Bahamian. This brings in names such as Oasis Dream, Zenda (who won the French 1000 Guineas and is the dam of Kingman) and Beat Hollow. New Bay’s yearlings had a median of 28,000 guineas last year but they were conceived off a €20,000 initial fee. He has 72 two year olds running for him this season but although he doesn’t appeal as a two year old sire, he is a very interesting prospect.

    In defence of his 2020 fee, New Bay is by a top sire, he is from a high class female line and he demonstrated top class form from a mile to a mile and half. He should suit most of the mares in the Irish population with no Danzig in his pedigree and Sadler’s Wells in the third generation. He may well prove to be a great bargain like Night of Thunder but I thought they might have dropped him to €12,500 in this risky season for breeders.

    Waldgeist €17,500 (n/a) (2014 Galileo ex Waldlerche by Monsun

    Verdict Overpriced (but only because the market is irrational)

    It’s a strange world, when a well bred Arc winner, by the dominant sire of our era, retires at a stud fee less than that of Calyx- a horse who never won a Group 1 and only ran four times. Waldgeist showed top class form over four seasons. He was a Group 1 winner at two, he was just touched off in the Prix de Jockey Club at three, he won a Grand Prix de Saint Cloud at four and a Prix Ganay and Arc at five. He comes from a high class German ‘W’ family. His dam won the Prix Penelope, his grand dam produced St Leger winner Masked Marvel and his third dam produced German Derby winner Waldpark. It’s not Waldgeist’s fault that stamina influences such as Monsun are deemed undesirable, nor that there is suspicion about horses who seemingly improved with age (even if he was a Group 1 winner at two and all horses physically peak at four or five). I think Waldgeist is an attractive package, but I don’t think he will find favour in our speed and precocity obsessed markets. He might be an interesting option for those breeding to race but commercial breeders might need a little convincing at that fee. An interesting comparison might be with Decorated Knight, who also won two Group 1’s at five. Decorated Knight wasn’t quite as good a racehorse as Waldgeist but he comes from a superior female family and stands for just €9,000.