MONTJEU.COM

An Independent View of the Bloodstock World

Category: Stallion Reviews

  • When is a stallion past their prime?

    Older Sires are treated with suspicion

    Ageism : noun “prejudice or discrimination on the basis of age”

    In the bloodstock world, there is often a suspicion of any stallion out of their teens. Supporting this theory, a friend recently mentioned that even Sadler’s Wells had no Group 1 winner from his last three crops. Is this just coincidence (and a very small sample size) or are older sires less effective? A quick internet search, didn’t reveal any serious research on the subject (please let me know if I missed something). Without proper data, we are in the realms of speculation but I am happy to speculate….

    My own thoughts are as follows:

    • Perceptions matter and if people doubt older stallions, then it could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.  Owners of high quality mares may be wary of visiting older stallions and this well lead to weaker crops, reduced success and ‘prove’ the theory.
    • Owners of high quality mares may be wary of visiting older stallions if their fertility is lower. Their is a natural decline in fertility as stallions age, so it could be a legitimate risk aversion to ensure the best chance of getting their mares in foal. However again the behaviour of the mare owners will end up ‘proving’ the theory.
    • Owners of high quality mares may be wary of visiting older stallions not because they doubt them but because they worry that many buyers have that bias against older sires. Breeders can’t ignore the marketplace. Again a weaker book will lead to less success on the track.
    • If the market does reduce the value of the offspring of older sires then those offspring will tend to go to fewer top end trainers. This could reduce the actual level of success.

    • Older stallions are probably covering a number of older mares who are trying to replicate a previously successful mating with that stallion. We do know that the progeny of older mares (specifically mares who have had more foals) are less successful than younger mares (albeit not as much of a difference as some people think). If a stallion covered the same 100 mares for ten consecutive years, I would expect a decrease in the number of stakes performers in the later crops due to the ageing of the mares, not the ageing of the stallion.
    • Later crops by stallions are competing against grandchildren of the same stallion. This years St Leger was a good example as Galileo’s best finisher was the third place horse, Nayef Road. The first two places were filled by his grandsons in Logician (by Frankel) and Sir Ron Priestley (by Australia). Similarly, when Galileo sired the first three home in the 2006 St Leger (Sixties Icon, The Last Drop and Red Rocks) the next two home were sons of Sadler’s Wells in Ask and Tusculum).
    • As for Sadler’s Wells last few crops, it is true that his success dimmed near the end. However, it is also worth remembering that Sadler’s Wells himself was part of a crop of 31 foals by Northern Dancer in 1981- so Northern Dancer was 20 when they were born. From those 31 foals there was Sadler’s Wells, El Gran Senor, Secreto and Northern Trick so not bad for an old sire! Mr Prospector also did well in his latter years- his only Kentucky Derby winner, Fusaichi Pegasus, was born when Mr Prospector was 27.

    Conclusion: Without proper data, it’s hard to be dogmatic on the subject. A simple crop by crop analysis with the percentage of black type winners in each crop isn’t sufficient. The quality and age of the mares in each crop would also have to be included in calculations. In humans, research on the children of older fathers shows some negative correlations so it is plausible that this would apply in horses also. If there is a negative correlation in horses, I think it would be slight and might perhaps be overestimated by the market. If that is the case, there could be some value to be had at the sales. One man’s prejudice, can be another man’s opportunity…….

  • Irish National Stud- 2020 Fees reviewed

    The 2018 accounts of the Irish National Stud show net assets of €19.3 million (you can view the accounts here if interested). There are 4.88 million Irish people, so I reckon I have a stake worth around €4 🙂 Hopefully, it won’t impair by impartiality…

    My favourite story (hopefully true) about the Irish National Stud involves the late Michael Osborne. During his stint as Managing Director he was in US and wearing an Irish National Stud cap. Seemingly he was asked by one American lady “are you really?”…

    The current roster includes 9 stallions and they are reviewed below.

    1. Decorated Knight €9,000 (€12,000) (2012 Galileo ex Pearling by Storm Cat)

    Verdict: Fairly Priced

    A triple Group 1 winner with one of the best pedigrees in the book. His dam is a sister to Giant’s Causeway making him a brother in blood to Gleneagles. Comparing the the two, in terms of peak ratings there wasn’t a huge gap between them (Timeform 124 vs 129) but Decorated Knight lacked the sort of precocity desirable in the marketplace. Decorated Knight didn’t win a Stakes race until he was 4 and didn’t win his Group 1’s until he was five. Hence, Gleneagles retired at a fee of €60,000, Decorated Knight at €15,000….

    Decorated Knight’s first foals were well received with a median of 30,000 guineas. Given the good start made by Gleneagles with his first runners, I think a fee of €9,000 for Decorated Knight seems pretty good value. He is just another unproven stallion son of Galileo, and most will disappoint, but I think his pedigree gives him an edge over other wannabes.

    2. Dragon Pulse €6,000 (€6,000) (2009 Kyllachy ex Poetical by Croco Rouge)

    Verdict: Overpriced

    As a two year old, he was trained by Jessie Harrington to win the Grp 2 Futurity Stakes and he was runner up to Dawn Approach in the National Stakes . At three he moved to France to Mikael Delzangles and won the Prix Fontainbleu before defeats in French Guineas and the St James Palace. It wasn’t a profile that had studs queuing up for him but he has carved out a place for himself in the Irish marketplace. He is free of Sadler’s Wells and Danzig which makes him suitable for a wider range of mares in Ireland and he attracted 131 mares in 2019.

    Dragon Pulse has a reasonable winners/runner ratio. Trainers seem to like his stock and for me he is sort of a lesser version of Footstepsinthesand who similarly is favoured by trainers, despite lacking real stars. The fact that he has only had three modest stakes winners from his first four crops is the big negative for me. Commercial breeders might also be concerned that he had a yearling median of 10,000 guineas last year.

    3. Elusive Pimpernel €3,000 (€1,000) (2007 Elusive Quality ex Cara Fantasy by Sadler’s Wells)

    Verdict: Fairly Priced (for National Hunt purposes)

    He stood for €1,000 for his first 8 seasons and received a tripling of his fee on the back of some good recent results over hurdles (Coeur Sublime and Soviet Pimpernel) and fences ( Ex Patriot). He has a very modest record on the flat, even taking into account the low quality of mare that he was covering. You would be very brave/foolish to use him for flat purposes. To date he hasn’t covered very big books but that could all change now that National Hunt breeders have him in their sights.

    4. Famous Name €1,000 (€1,000) (2005 Dansili ex Famous At Last by Quest For Fame)– standing at Anngrove Stud

    Verdict: Fairly Priced (for National Hunt purposes)

    21 wins from 38 runs over 5 seasons and only beaten a head in the French Derby. Disappointed as a flat sire, but at that fee you can see why National Hunt breeders might take a chance on him transmitting soundness and some ability.

    5. Free Eagle €12,500 (€12,500) 2011 High Chaparral ex Polished Gem by Danehill

    Verdict: Fairly Priced

    Free Eagle was lightly raced but highly regarded. After winning on debut he was 2/5 when well beaten by Australia as a two year old in a Group 3. He was off the track for a full year before winning a Group 3 and running a good third in the Champion Stakes behind Noble Mission. He won his Group 1 on his four year old reappearance in the Prince of Wales but failed to win again, despite running well in third in the Irish Champion Stakes and not being beaten far in the Arc. As a son of High Chaparral, I didn’t expect much precocity from Free Eagle’s first crop of 88 but they did quite well. He had 12 winners from 42 runners and these included two classy, Ger Lyons horses in Listed winner Justifier and Stakes placed filly Auxilia . It is reasonable to assume that his progeny will be better at three so it was surprising to see his yearling median drop from 25,000 guineas in 2018 to 10,750 guineas in 2019. At those prices you are better off buying one of his offspring than trying to breed one.

    Incidentally, his pedigree got a boost during the year, when his three parts sister Search For A Song (by Galileo) won the Irish St Leger and the dam has now produced a very impressive six Stakes winners including Custom Cut and Sapphire.
    Thatcher may have said “you can’t buck the market” and I’m sure she would have strongly disapproved of a State owned stud farm as well 🙂 It’s easy to conclude that he is overpriced on the basis of the sales returns, but I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt and say he is fairly priced on the basis of progeny performance and their potential for improvement. It’s the yearling market in 2022 you need to consider and he is undoubtedly in the risky category but perhaps worth a punt.

    6. Invincible Spirit €100,000 (€120,000) (1997 Green Desert ex Rafha by Kris)

    Verdict: Ovepriced (slightly)

    The balance sheet of the Irish National Stud would be a lot less healthy without him. Had a good year on the track with Magna Grecia winning the Guineas and Invincible Army and Inns of Court winning Group 2’s. Being touted as a sire of sires with the success of Kingman and I Am Invincible and an encouraging first crop by Cable Bay (although his results aren’t that exceptionally good) should also have boosted his reputation. He is now 23 but age is no barrier to siring a good horse. Despite the success on the track his yearling median dropped to 110,000 guineas so he is commercially risky as older stallions lose ground to more fashionable new arrivals. He is undoubtedly a very good sire with 126 stakes winners (6%) to his name. You could debate whether his fee should be dropped back somewhat based on his sales results or can be justified based on the track results and sire of sires spin, but I thought it would be pared back a little more.

    7. National Defense €8,000 (€8,000) (2012 Invincible Spirit ex Angel Falls by Kingmambo)

    Verdict: Fairly Priced

    It’s understandable that the INS would want to stand a son or sons of Invincible Spirit. National Defense looked very good winning the Jean Luc Lagardere (Grand Criterium) on Arc weekend but in retrospect it was a weak field. Prior to that victory he had won a maiden and been beaten in a Group 3 but ended up rated as champion French two year old. He made a nice three year old reappearance in the Prix Djebel finishing second to Al Wukair and started favourite for the French Guineas only to finish last and never be seen again on the track.

    National Defense has a solid female line with plenty of decent back type performers and he cost €280,000 as a yearling. He had a good first book of mares conceived at €12,000 and his first foals were well received with a median of 26,000 guineas. The success of Kingman and the good season enjoyed by Cable Bay will have helped push the idea of Invincible Spirit as a sire of sires, whilst helping to obliterate the memory of Born to Sea, Mayson, Swiss Spirit, Zebedee, Vale of York and the unremarkable records of Charm Spirit and Lawman 🙂 It’s a gamble using him in his third season but at €8000 it stacks up reasonably well compared to some of the newer sons of Invincible Spirit on the market .

    8. Palavicini €1,000 (not listed) (2006 Giant’s Causeway ex Cara Fantasy by Sadler’s Wells)

    Verdict: Fairly Priced (for National Hunt purposes)

    A Group 3 winner and a half brother to Elusive Pimpernel. Another of the stallions associated with Cristina Patino. He won’t be doing a Big Bad Bob and becoming an unlikely success story. Very few foals to date and nothing of note so far, I’m not sure why you would use him but what are you expecting for €1,000?

    9.Phoenix of Spain €15,000 (na) (2016 Lope de Vega ex Lucky Clio by Key Of Luck)

    Verdict: Overpriced (slightly)

    Looked really good when winning the Irish Guineas on his three year old reappearance. Too Darn Hot was well beaten in second and Magna Grecia was back in fifth. At that stage it looked as if the INS had pulled a master stroke by buying into Phoenix of Spain during his two year old days. In a marketplace where so few stallion prospects are available, they certainly did well in purchasing him. Unfortunately, he failed to win after his classic success and in truth was disappointing in all of his subsequent four runs. His two year old form had been promising, winning an Acomb Stakes,finishing a good second to Too Darn Hot in the Champagne Stakes and beaten a head after being bumped by Magna Grecia in the Vertem Futurity Trophy. In his favour, he is by an upwardly mobile stallion in Lope De Vega. His dam side is reasonable with the granddam having produced a Group 2 winner in Special Kaldoun and he cost 220,000 guineas as a yearling. He could easily make the grade as a stallion but being picky , I think Belardo is a better value son of Lope De Vega at 10k.

  • Ten predictions for 2030

    Looking ahead to 2030 here are some predictions that can eventually be thrown back at me….

    1. Bloodstock writers will be bored of trying to find something interesting to write about all the major winners incorporating versions of Galileo/Dubawi and Dubawi/Galileo crosses

    2. Coolmore will no longer be home to the GB/Irish champion sire. It is remarkable that they have homed the champion every year since 1990 via Sadler’s Wells, Danehill, Danehill Dancer and Galileo. However, I don’t see anything in the current roster that looks like following in those big shoes. Amazingly Galileo was their only sire in the top 10 by earnings in the UK/Ireland for 2019.

    3. Coolmore will find compensation for the relative decline of their dominance in Europe with the success of their US stallions. To purchase two triple crown winners is a serious statement of intent and sooner or later, their US investments will pay off.

    4. Trainers will properly embrace technology. All trainers will use wearable tech for real time data monitoring of horse health and fitness. Trainers will spend as much time looking at an app with data about the horses workouts as they did watching them gallop.

    5. Winning the battle over animal welfare concerns will be the key battleground of the decade. Racing needs to not just lobby politicians, but to employ a well resourced team of social media professionals to tackle the opposing arguments. If a State such as California bans racing (and see the petition at https://www.change.org/p/governor-gavin-newsom-outlaw-horse-racing-in-california to get a sense of the arguments involved ) , then pressure grows in other areas (the domino effect), sponsors leave the sport, the overall industry shrinks and decline sets in. Greyhound racing found itself banned in most countries and it is the sport most comparable to horse racing. Racing needs to manage its PR very carefully and professionally. That applies even more so to National Hunt racing, which is a particular target for animal rights groups.

    6. Chinese racing will grow but not as much as the number of articles about the new gold rush in the Chinese mainland. I wouldn’t be pinning too much hopes on this market offsetting declines elsewhere.

    7. Speaking of decline- I can’t imagine Brexit doing much good for the British bloodstock industry. Firstly, there will be the practical problems that any sort of border checks and delays will cause to horse/mares travelling between Britain and Ireland. The economic shock/decline caused by Brexit will impact on funding to the sport. Perceptions matter, and if the perception is that Britain is unwelcoming to outsiders, then that will discourage foreign owners who previously overlooked the low prize-money due to the traditional prestige of British racing. The quality of British racing could quickly fall due to a lack of investment.

    8. On course bookmakers could be gone by 2030. They are already on life support in most mid-week meetings and it is difficult to imagine that the traditional model will survive much longer. The decline in the use of cash merely exacerbates the issues they face. People complain about them, but they will miss them when they are gone..

    9.AI will happen eventually:

    AI (that’s artificial insemination not artificial intelligence for the benefit of the nerdier readers) should/will happen. If it does happen, it will not be driven by the industry but by external events. The most likely catalyst is a disease outbreak that restricts the travel of mares. In the new era of climate change awareness, the carbon cost of transporting hundreds of mares to a stallion farm rather than shipping semen straws should be re-examined. Compared with live covers, AI is

    1. Cost efficient
    2. Environmentally friendly
    3. Improves disease control
    4. Improves choice for breeders

    With a global pick of stallions, even for low value mares, we can reverse the narrowing of the equine gene pool which has occurred. The ‘traditionalists’ chief concerns have been

    a) the fear of huge crop sizes

    b) a reduction in stallion diversity

    c) the practical issue that foals conceived by AI are not eligible for inclusion in the stud book

    These fears can be overcome. Taking these issues in turn:

    a) Huge crop sizes are already a reality (Soldier of Fortune covered 341 mares in 2017 and 261 in 2019). The marketplace will find a level at which demand (finite) will equal the new level of supply (almost infinite).  After an adjustment period, I do not envisage the top stallions greatly exceeding some of the current crop sizes. Alternatively a cap can be put in place in terms of the maximum number of foals registered for each sire in a given year.

    b) Available stallion options will increase. To take an example, Irish breeders will have ready access sons of Sunday Silence or AP Indy, without having to ship the mares to Japan or the US.

    c) The rules around registrations are not unalterable and previously Kentucky considered allowing AI during a disease outbreak. Faced with the prospect of a dramatically curtailed foal crop or a legislative change, what do you think will happen?

    AI is still unthinkable for many, but once it has happened, people will wonder what all the fuss was about. With a few sensible rules regarding the timelines for the use of semen after the death of a stallion and limitations on crop sizes the industry can continue largely as before. The benefits outweigh the costs.

    10.Beware the impact of science/technology – The predictive tests offered by Plusvital and other equine-tech firms haven’t transformed the training and breeding world just yet. This is probably a good thing, as if they become too accurate then our traditional breeding industry model will simply collapse. Variability, uncertainty and hope are the bedrocks of our breeding industry, betting and sport( I’d like to be remembered for that quote). Good luck trying to persuade someone to buy a horse, which a test predicts (with 98% accuracy) won’t achieve a rating above 45 :). The tests may not be there yet, but there is no reason that they can’t continue to improve and if they do, then expect serious market turbulence with lots of unsaleable horses.

    It may sound like the plot of an unwritten Dick Francis novel but what happens when gene editing techniques such as CRISPR are adopted by unscrupulous types on thoroughbreds? We are familiar with racehorses being tested for illegal substances but there is no testing undertaken for genetic doping. There was always an incentive to cheat in racing and there is no reason to think this avenue won’t be explored by some, given the huge potential rewards.

    Conclusion:

    Racing has been around for centuries but the future is uncertain and industry leaders shouldn’t be complacent that the industry will continue on as before. The Nobel Prize winning novellist John Galsworthy once said “If you don’t think about the future you cannot have one”. Incidentally you can read an interesting description of racing at Newmarket by Galsworthy at http://www.online-literature.com/john-galsworthy/country-house/4/ .

    Happy New Year….

  • Kildangan fees 2020 Part 2-Profitable to The Last Lion

    Kildangan Stud 2020 fee (2019 fee)

    1. Profitable €12,000 (€12,000) 2012 Invincible Spirit ex Dani Ridge by Indian Ridge)

    Verdict: Overpriced (slightly)

    I don’t know whether to look on Profitable in a glass half full or glass half empty way. He won a Kings Stand Stakes at 4 and was runner up in the same race at 5 to Lady Aurelia. He ran 23 times over 4 seasons but 21 of those runs were over 5 furlongs and only twice did he venture as far as 6 furlongs. By the end of his three year old season, he was still to win beyond Listed class. Although he took time to mature, so did Invincible Spirit who was 5 before he won his Group 1. Profitable ‘only’ cost 95000 guineas as a yearling which was around average for yearling colts by Invincible Spirit in 2013. It is an unremarkable female line which had me googling some unfamiliar names such as Shelter Half, the sire of his grand-dam (turns out he was a Grade 3 winner who stood in Maryland and sired 18 stakes winners from 381 foals). There is no duplication in Profitable’s pedigree until the fifth generation and Northern Dancer only appears once on his page so that increases the range of suitable mares around these parts.

    In defence of his fee, the sales results from his foals were strong with a median of 29,000 guineas. On the other hand, he is entering his third season when a reduction is customary and I would have expected €10,000 for 2020.

    2. Raven’s Pass €10,000 (€10,000) (2005 Elusive Quality ex Ascutney by Lord at War)

    Verdict: Overpriced

    He retired at a fee of €40,000 and the fall to €10,000 tells its own story. On the face of it his percentages are surprisingly good with 7% stakes winners (33 from 485 foals of racing age). He had his first Group 1 winner in 2018 when Royal Marine won the Prix Jean Lagardare and had a second this year when Tower of London won a Group 1 sprint in Japan. However despite this mini-renaissance the market has lost patience with him and this year he had a yearling median of 12,750 guineas. He has had his chances with high quality books of mares and he didn’t deliver, so for me he is one to avoid.

    3. Ribchester €20,000 (€25,000) (2013 Iffraaj ex Mujarah by Marju)

    Verdict: Fair Price (for now)

    An admirable racehorse he won or was placed in 14 of his 16 races. He won the Mill Reef at two, was placed in the Guineas, won the Jersey Stakes and Jacques Le Marois at three and won a Lockinge Queen Anne and Prix de Moulin at 4. He was top rated European miler for two seasons and he is the best son to date of Iffraaj.

    He comes from a high class female line. His fifth dam is the legendary Fall Aspen, his third dam is Irish Guineas winner Mehthaaf. It’s a live family and the grand dam Tanaghum produced this years Group 3 winner Bangkok (by Australia). Iffraaj has sired a surprisingly good stallion in Wootton Bassett (sire of Alamanzor) and Ribchester’s first foals sold well with a median of 36,500 guineas. He is free of Sadler’s Wells, Danehill and Green Desert so he will suit lots of Irish mares. The odds are against any new stallion succeeding but for now he seems reasonably priced to me.

    4. Shamardal Private (Private) (2002 Giant’s Causeway ex Helsinki by Machiavellian).

    Verdict: That depends..

    The star of the Kildangan operation who had an unbelievable season. To sire three unbeaten Group 1 winning two year old colts including the exceptional Pinatubo is remarkable and he did this from a juvenile crop of ‘just’ 82. The supporting cast included Blue Point and a French classic winner in Castle Lady.  Shamardal’s reputation has never been higher and he has also carved out a growing reputation as a broodmare sire and sire of sires via Lope De Vega. He has effectively been a private stallion for the Maktoum family for the past few seasons but did cover 16 outside mares in 2019. Kildangan can be very picky indeed about what outside mares they allow to Shamardal for 2020.  As regards a fee, we are in the realms of pure speculation but I would imagine it will be greater than Sea the Stars at €150,000 and probably exceed Frankel at £175,000 but fall short of Dubawi at £250,000 (if anyone hears, please let me know). Whether that represents value hardly matters for the uber-wealthy people involved at that level. 

    5. Slade Power €7,500 (€7,500) (2009 Dutch Art ex Girl Power by Key of Luck)

    Verdict: Overpriced

    Most people would struggle to name anything that he has sired apart from Raffle Prize and that is because she is his only stakes winner from 176 foals of racing age. He stood for €20,000 in his first two seasons so he is clearly a big disappointment. His yearling median dropped to 8000 guineas in 2019. The only glimmer of hope is that he improved with age but I wouldn’t be holding out too much hope for a dramatic turnaround in the fortunes of his offspring in the ring anytime soon. His record may improve (it can’t get much worse) but you would imagine that foreign shores beckon for him soon.

    6. Teofilo €40,000 (€40,000) (2004 Galileo ex Speirbhean by Danehill)

    Verdict: Overpriced

    A reliable sire with 86 stakes winners (7%) from 1316 foals of racing age. Depended on older horses such as Cross Counter, Flight Risk and Exultant for most of his success in 2019.  There was no stakes winner amongst his 95 two year olds and he has smaller crops of 64 and 65 coming through ( presumably a consequence of his underwhelming fertility levels) .  His yearling sales median in 2019 was only 25,500 guineas . He is a good sire but at those sales levels you are better off buying his offspring than trying to breed to him…

    7. The Last Lion €7,500 (€7,500) (2004 Choisir ex Mala Mala by Brief Truce)

    Verdict: Overpriced

    A tough precocious two year old who won the Brocklesby and then on his 10th start of the season won the Middle Park (incidentally beating Blue Point). He was then shipped off to stud in the hope that he would be the next Dark Angel who also retired after the Middle Park. He comes from a respectable female line that seems to throw up quality performers in most generations. Choisir has a good sire son to his name in Starspangledbanner and a less successful one (to date) in Olympic Glory. The Last Lion had a solid yearling median of 21,000 guineas in 2019. Using him in 2020 (his fourth season) may prove inspired but it is for gamblers only and the odds don’t look particularly attractive to me.