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Stallion Reviews

Camelot- a new legend?

Camelot has delivered Montjeu, his first Guineas winner. His success didn’t look likely until inside the final furlong, but in the end he was probably worth a little bit more than his official margin of a neck.  His success confirms the greatness of both Montjeu and Aidan O’Brien.

Aidan O’Brien

Camelot was Aidan O’Brien’s sixth 2000 Guineas winner, following King of Kings, Rock of Gibraltar, Footstepsinthesand, George Washington and Henrythenavigator. All of them were making their seasonal debuts and to me the ability to get a horse fully fit on the gallops is one of the hallmarks of a top trainer. The ability to learn from past mistakes and the knowledge that comes from training a lot of the members of the same family or offspring of the same sire can give trainers that extra edge. Aidan has trained more Montjeu’s than anybody else and he was quick to acknowledge that he made mistakes in prepping a previous Racing Post Trophy winner St Nicholas Abbey for the Guineas and he clearly didn’t repeat those mistakes with Camelot.

Camelot’s pedigree

Camelot cost 525,000 guineas at the 2010 Tattersalls October sales which made him the highest priced yearling by Montjeu sold that year.  For that sort of money you would expect him to be both handsome and especially well bred. His pedigree is undoubtedly high class although in truth it has lacked a superstar until Camelot, so we can assume he was a very taking physical specimen.

Tarfah

Camelot’s dam Tarfah was unraced at two, won three of her 4 starts including a listed handicap at Ascot as a three year old and then continued the good work by winning the listed Snowdrop stakes and the Group 3 Dahlia stakes in her first two runs at four. She failed to trouble the judge in the Windsor Forest run at York that year when Ascot was being redeveloped and was last seen disappointing in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes at Epsom in June 2006. She was reported as having burst a blood vessel that day and was not seen again on the track but retired with a very creditable record of 5 wins from 8 starts. Tarfah’s first foal was a filly by Galileo who cost 240,000 Guineas and named Ideal.  Trained by David Wachman, from her seven starts to date she won a 10 furlong maiden at Clonmel but is clearly a long way short of top class.

Fickle

Tarfah’s dam Fickle was trained by Michael Bell and ran five times as a three year old. She won her maiden at Brighton on her third start and won a listed race on her final start at Newcastle when she got the run of the race and sprung a surprise when winning at 20-1. With the black type secured it was presumably decided to retire her to the paddocks.  At stud Tarfah was by a long way her best offspring with her only other winner being the very modest Sistine who is closely related to Tarfah being by Dubai Destination (a son of Kingmambo).

Fade

Camelot’s third dam Fade was unraced but she proved a useful producer, leaving 8 winners from 8 runners including 3 other stakes performers besides Fickle in Faru (by Mtoto) , Birdie (by Alhaarth) and Fading Light (by King’s Best).

One over Parr

Camelot’s fourth dam One Over Parr (by Reform out of Seventh Bride) was very useful .  She won the Cheshire Oaks and the Lancashire Oaks, both Group 3’s and was a full sister to an Epsom Oaks winner in the 1974 winner Polygamy who gave Pat Eddery his first English Classic on the day that I was born ! As for the name One Over Parr history buffs might recall that Henry VIII’s sixth wife was called Catherine Parr hence with a dam of Seventh Bride, the name One Over Parr was very clever.

Kincsem

For those who really, really like to delve into a pedigree (and my thanks to the poster who notified me), Camelots 17th dam is no less than the Hungarian supermare Kincsem! Kincsem retired with a record of 54 wins from 54 starts and was dominant on the continent before crossing the Channel and claiming the Goodwood Cup in 1878. For a detailed account of her racing and broodmare career click here

Nicks

Tarfah is a daughter of Kingmambo and he has combined very well with daughters of  Montjeu’s sire Sadler’s Wells.  Kingmambo has sired Henrythenavigator, El Condor Pasa and Divine Proportions on this cross and his son King’s Best has produced Workforce out of a Sadler’s Wells mare.

Conclusion

Camelot is an unbeaten Group 1 winner at two and now a Guineas winner at three. The next logical target is the Derby and he is already an odds on shot in most books for the Epsom showpiece.  The assumption is that being by Montjeu he should have no difficulty in staying 12 furlongs and the triple crown is also now being talked about.  However before getting carried away with the hype, it is worth remembering that neither Tarfah nor Fickle were ever asked to race beyond 10 furlongs and as racehorses themselves the sires in the lower half of the pedigree were all sprinters or milers with the exception of Persepolis who won the Prix Lupin over 10 furlongs. The slight concern is that winning a Guineas shows Camelot to be an atypical Montjeu and perhaps he will also not stay as well as the other high class Montjeu colts.  I certainly wouldn’t be rushing to back him at odds on  for the Derby, however for the sake of racing I fervently hope that he goes on to claim the holy grail that is the triple crown, and for which we have been waiting 42 years to find a successor to Nijinsky.

CAMELOT (GB) 2009 c b
Montjeu
(IRE) 1996		 Sadler’s
Wells (USA) 1981		 Northern
Dancer (CAN) 1961		 Nearctic
(USA) 1954
Natalma
(USA) 1957
Fairy
Bridge (USA) 1975		 Bold
Reason (USA) 1968
Special
(USA) 1969
Floripedes
(FR) 1985		 Top
Ville (IRE) 1976		 High
Top (IRE) 1969
Sega
Ville (USA) 1968
Toute
Cy (FR) 1979		 Tennyson
(FR) 1970
Adele
Toumignon (IRE) 1971
Tarfah
(USA) 2001		 Kingmambo
(USA) 1990		 Mr
Prospector (USA) 1970		 Raise
A Native (USA) 1961
Gold
Digger (USA) 1962
Miesque
(USA) 1984		 Nureyev
(USA) 1977
Pasadoble
(USA) 1979
Fickle
(GB) 1996		 Danehill
(USA) 1986		 Danzig
(USA) 1977
Razyana
(USA) 1981
Fade
(GB) 1988		 Persepolis
(FR) 1979
One
Over Parr (GB) 1972

Montjeu RIP

We all know that death is inevitable, yet we are still surprised when it happens. Montjeu was only 16 when he died today from complications related to septicaemia. He leaves behind an outstanding legacy with too many big winners to name, but even looking at his classic winners gives a sense of his achievements.

Classic Winners (Northern Hemisphere):

Hurricane Run (2002 c ex Hold On by Surumu) won Irish Derby

Motivator (2002 c ex Out West by Gone West) won Epsom Derby

Scorpion (2002 c ex Ard Melody by Law Society) won St Leger

Frozen Fire (2005 c ex Flamingo Sea by Woodman) won Irish Derby

Fame & Glory (2006 c ex Gryada by Shirley Heights)- won Irish Derby

Authorized (2006 ex Funsie by Saumurez) won Epsom Derby

Pour Moi (2008 c ex Gwynn by Darshaan)

Masked Marvel (2008 ex Waldmark by Mark of Esteem) won St Leger

Additional “Classic Winners” (depending on your definition)

Montare (2002 f ex Contare by Shirley Heights ) won Prix Royal Oak (French St Leger)

Jukebox Jury (2006 c ex Mare Aux Fees by Kenmare) won Irish St Leger

That is a remarkable level of consistency for a sire who has only had 8 crops of three year olds to represent him so far. It also goes without saying that there could be plenty more names added to this list before the final total is known with Camelot (ex Tarfah by Kingmambo) a short priced favourite for this years Derby and Guineas.

In addition he did very well from his stint down under (although it took some time to recognise this) and he has also enjoyed  major national hunt success including festival winners Hurricane Fly and Noble Prince.

Legacy

When Montjeu’s first crop of three year olds hit the track it was a phenomenon. He sired the first two in the Epsom Derby (Motivator and Walk in the Park) and Irish Derby (Hurricane Run and Scorpion). For good measure Scorpion added the St Leger and Hurricane Run the Arc that season. It seemed the true successor to his sire Sadler’s Wells had finally arrived. And then along came Galileo.  Now it seems that Montjeu is always to be compared to his more expensive stud mate and almost invariably unfavourably. “He doesn’t sire milers and he doesn’t sire fillies and they carry their heads a little high” so the cream of the mares go to Galileo, just like their sire Sadler’s Wells kept the best mares from Caerleon. Indeed one wag suggested to me that the cause of his death was a broken heart as he felt like a jilted lover losing so many of his mares to Galileo!

But the comparison with Sadler’s Wells and Caerleon and the conventional wisdom is unfair. Montjeu is to my mind a better sire than Caerleon and in many respects a better sire than Galileo. The most important stat is usually stakes winners to foals- Galileo has 98 from 1651 foals of racing age (6%), Montjeu is currently 100 from 1318 foals (8%). If we factor in the superior quality of Galileo’s mares then Montjeu’s comparative record is all the more laudable. He also outperformed Galileo from their shuttle crops. As for his supposed failings with fillies and milers, those perceptions could easily change and very rapidly if for instance Camelot won a Guineas and Wading a fillies classic. With further crops to come it is worth waiting to see if his record with fillies and milers will improve in time. Even if they don’t, he has done enough to be regarded as one of the ten greatest sires to ever stand in Ireland. The others probably consist of Sadler’s Wells, Danehill, Habitat, Galileo, Birdcatcher, Gallinule, Blandford, Gallinule and Desmond.

Sons at Stud

To date the record of his sons at stud is underwhelming. Motivator seemed afflicted by bad luck suffering injuries and having small resultant crops but he was disappointing. Hurricane Run has got plenty of stakes horses but quickly needs a big name to keep his name in lights. Authorized had a quiet first season last year with his two year olds so he needs them to improve considerably as three year olds. There are still plenty of sons either yet to retire or just retired so there is plenty of time for a successor to emerge and it is worth remembering that Sadler’s Wells had more failures than successes before Montjeu came along.

Broodmare Sire

It is also very early to make pronouncements Montjeu as a Broodmare sire.  However last year saw Montjeu as broodmare sire of two of the best two year olds in Europe via Dewhurst winner Parish Hall (2009 c by Teofilo ex Halla Siamsa by Montjeu) and Group 2 winner Restiadargent (Kendargent ex Restia by Montjeu). Given Montjeu’s rivalry with Galileo it is interesting to see them combine in the pedigree of Parish Hall who is by Galileo’s son Teofilo and we can expect to see there names increasingly linked in future pedigrees.

Final Word

Montjeu was an outstanding racehorse and his performance in the 2000 King George was as impressive as you could wish for. He had a great turn of foot for a horse who truly stayed 12 furlongs and would have got further. He also had courage as he demonstrated in a tough Arc when El Condor Paso got first run on him in heavy ground. He passed on many of these attributes to his offspring and he is huge loss to the European breeding industry.

Stowaway fever

The first two days of Cheltenham 2012 were dominated by the Sadler’s Wells tribe, in particular Oscar. However it was nice to see Stowaway a sire that we previously tipped for greatness (see earlier post) sire his first Cheltenham winner. The horse in question was Champagne Fever (2007 g Stowaway ex Forever Bubbles by Roselier) who determinedly held off all challengers to give his trainer Willie Mullins an incredible 7th bumper victory.

Career to date:

Champagne Fever was an impressive point to point winner at Quakerstown in April 2011. His first start under rules was at Leopardstown’s Christmas festival. This is often the venue for Willie Mullins to unleash his best bumper prospects and Champagne Fever obviously shown a lot of potential as he started odds on. However he had to give second best to Thomas Edison. Champagne Fever reappeared on the 22nd of January where he had little difficulty in opening his account at 1/4.  He was 16-1 and on the face of it not the stable selected for the Cheltenham Bumper but he battled bravely to repel all challengers and given that he has already won a point to point, he seems to have a bright future ahead over the bigger obstacles.

Pedigree

Stowaway is to my mind the most interesting national hunt sire in Ireland. He has earned respect the hard way and if he can survive for another few years he will benefit from massive books of increasing quality. As a son of Slip Anchor (with only one cross of Northern Dancer in the fourth remove) he offers an obvious choice for any of the thousands of granddaughters of Sadler’s Wells now in the National Hunt broodmare band.

Champagne Fever’s dam Forever Bubbles was unraced but she is a daughter of an outstanding jumps sire in Roselier. To date Forever Bubbles is the dam of a useful winner in Presenting Forever (by Presenting) and placed offspring by Luso and Topanoora. The second dam Cool Blue was a daughter of an even better jumps sire in Deep Run and she was a winner over hurdles and has become the dam of two winners to date. There is nothing particularly classy close up in the pedigree, but like any pedigree if you go back far enough you will eventually find something worthwhile. In the case of Champagne Fever you need to go back to her fifth dam Blue Petrel who was the ancestress of Andy Pandy who was well clear in Red Rum’s 1977 National when falling at Beechers, but who gained compensation 3 weeks later in the Whitbread. In addition the likes of Scottish National winner Belmont Kin  and graded winners The Bajan Bandit and TheRealBandit can be traced to Blue Petrel.  However these are distant connections and the pedigree is no more than modest and this is reflected in the price of €17,500 realised for Champagne Fever at the 2010 Tattersalls Derby Sale.

Conclusion

Champagne Fever is from an unremarkable family but on the damside the names Roselier and Deep Run appear and these are amongst the best national hunt stallions to ever stand in Ireland.  It is premature to include Stowaway in such company but he is certainly starting to make his mark.  Willie Mullins described Champagne Fever as “a big light framed horse” but he has a great engine and it will be no surprise to see him return to Cheltenham for further glory in the years ahead.

CHAMPAGNE FEVER (IRE) 2007 g gr
Stowaway
(GB) 1994		 Slip
Anchor (GB) 1982		 Shirley
Heights (GB) 1975		 Mill
Reef (USA) 1968
Hardiemma
(GB) 1969
Sayonara
(GER) 1965		 Birkhahn
(GER) 1945
Suleika
(GER) 1954
On
Credit (FR) 1988		 No
Pass No Sale (IRE) 1982		 Northfields
(USA) 1968
No
Disgrace (IRE) 1976
Noble
Tiara (USA) 1981		 Vaguely
Noble (GB) 1965
Tayyara
(IRE) 1975
Forever
Bubbles (IRE) 1992		 Roselier
(FR) 1973		 Misti
(FR) 1958		 Medium
(FR) 1946
Mist
(FR) 1953
Peace
Rose (FR) 1959		 Fastnet
Rock (FR) 1947
La
Paix (FR) 1951
Cool
Blue (GB) 1976		 Deep
Run (GB) 1966		 Pampered
King (GB) 1954
Trial
By Fire (FR) 1958
Blue
Buck (GB) 1968		 Royal
Buck (GB) 1957
Blue
Jirao (GB) 1957

What has happened to NH horses?

In this months international thoroughbred magazine I wrote about the decline of the National Hunt horse. The full text is shown below:

What has happened to National Hunt horses?

I normally sigh when I hear older racing folk talk about the good old days. If you were to believe them, horses were tougher, jockeys were tougher, the sport had more characters and everything was somehow better. To my surprise when I did a comparative study on the leading national hunt sires table over the past twenty years, it seems the traditionalists are almost certainly right when it comes to the assertion that horses were sounder in the past.

Methodology
I looked at the Racing Post tables of the 50 leading sires by prize money in the UK and Ireland in various years since their records began. I then aggregated the number of runners, winners, runs and wins for these top 50 sires and calculated the average number of runs per runner in a season and the average number of wins per winner. The results are shown in the table below.

*2000-2001 results were affected by the cancellations of some meetings due to the foot and mouth crisis

Summary of Findings.

1. The average number of runs per horse per season is in freefall, dropping from over 4 per season to its current mark of 3.66. This is the major cause of concern arising from this research as it seems to indicate that our current national hunt horses are much less robust than their equivalents from only 20 years ago.
2. The jumping horses who do win, win far fewer races per season than in the past. The average number of wins has fallen from 1.78 wins per season to 1.48 per season a 17% reduction. This however may simply be a logical follow-on from the fact that all horses (winners and non-winners) are running much less often.
3. The impact of bigger book sizes is very apparent. The number of combined runners in a season for the top 50 sires went from 2,207 (an average of 42 runners per stallion) to 5,347 (average of 107 runners per stallion), a 142% increase in 21 years.

Considering the Options -Possible Reasons for decline
1. The question that arises is whether the reduced run frequency is a deliberate policy by trainers who are adopting a more protective and selective approach to racing their charges or an indication that their charges cannot handle a more regular racing regime? Its difficult to be definitive but it is reasonable to assume that owners nowadays( as in the past), prefer to have their horses compete if they are fit and well and capable of winning. As a trainers primary concern is to keep his owners content, I can see no reason why they would deliberately pursue a policy of fewer runs apart from special cases where a horses handicap mark is being protected or campaigns are all about one race (eg Best Mate and the Gold Cup).

2. Are trainers responsible for the decline? Perhaps increased string sizes with less individual attention for horses coupled with altered training techniques such as interval training and all weather gallops have caused an increase in injury rates? I don’t believe it to be case and improved veterinary techniques should also see faster rehabilitation from injuries but in the absence of statistical data we have to consider the possibility.

3. Blame the stallions and the bigger books. Its easy to conclude that because stallion books are bigger and horses are running less often there is a cause and effect situation. I don’t subscribe to that theory. If we take an example based on a book of say 80 mares being ‘acceptable’ and anything more than that being ‘excessive’ it is easy to see logical difficulties in this approach. I fail to see how by virtue of covering a single mare beyond the magic number (80 in this case) that the quality of all the offspring could be effected, as this would require the genes of the foals in the already pregnant mares to somehow be altered by a subsequent event! More credibly it could be argued that bigger books mean that less thought was given to compatibility with the mare, but this is a subjective area and unless there is an obvious conformation issue on both sides it may not be quite so easy to prove a stallion selection was unwise.

3b. Its not the bigger books- it is the bigger books being used on the wrong stallions. There is perhaps some merit in this argument. We have seen many examples of unproven new national hunt stallions attracting massive books of mares.  If these stallions prove to be progenitors of unsound offspring then there will be an awful lot of fragile offspring on the ground. Against that, the trend for bigger books has been of even greater benefit to the successful and proven stallions who it should be hoped will therefore have an opportunity to transfer their positive attributes to even greater numbers.

4. It’s something else entirely- The decline in average number of starts is not exclusive to jumps racing. Research on lifetime starts in the US lifetime show they almost halved since the 1950’s.  Unsound stallions who required medication to race is often put forward as a major cause and the internationalisation of bloodstock means that those bloodlines are prevalent here also. It is also possible that the modern thoroughbred has passed a tipping point in terms of soundness, it is after all a closed stud book and with every generation the level of inbreeding is increasing. National Hunt racing may just be another example of this and something more radical than tinkering with book sizes or alternative stallion selection will be required to make an appreciable difference to this trend.

Conclusion

We often don’t notice change when it occurs quite gradually. Looking in the mirror each morning, the ovenight ageing process is imperceptible but looking back on old photographs the transformations become obvious. Something similar is happening before our eyes in National Hunt racing. Horses are racing and winning less often each season and the cumulative effect is now quite striking. This should be a matter of concern to all lovers of the sport and at the very least further research into the underlying causes is required.

Poor value stallion fees 2012

Having already looked at stallions I feel are under-priced, in the interests of balance I feel I should shame those studs that are overcharging for their wares. That is the benefit of not being reliant on advertising:) The following stallion fees, for sires that have had more than one crop on the track  had me scratching my head:

1. Elusive City (2000 Elusive Quality ex Star of Paris by Dayjur) 2012 fee €15,000

Amazingly Elusive City is the most expensive stallion standing in France for 2012.  It indicates the paucity of proven top class flat stallions that remain there and it is also amazing that they can get away charging €15,000 for a sire who has sired a solitary Group 1 winner in Elusive Wave and who has sired a paltry 14 stakes winners (2%)  from 855 foals in two hemispheres. Elusive City was a high class two year old winning a Prix Morny and a Richmond Stakes (subsequently disqualified for a prohibited substance), but he was readily defeated by Oasis Dream in the Middle Park and he  failed to win at three. He was originally at stud in Ireland before moving to Haras d’Etreham where he stood at 20k before dropping back to 15k for the past two seasons. It made sense to stand him in France as his biggest win was there and his best performer the aforementioned Elusive Wave (ex Multicolour Wave by Rainbow Quest) won the French 1000 Guineas. However there is very little depth of quality amongst his offspring and to me he is double the price his results to date warrant.

2. High Chaparral (1999 Sadler’s Wells ex Kasora by Darshaan) 2012 fee €25,000

It would be hard to quibble with the exploits of High Chaparral as a racehorse, his final record was 13 runs, 10 wins and 3 places. Included in his wins were 6 Group or Grade 1’s including the Racing Post Trophy at 2, the Derby and Irish Derby, a pair of Breeders Cup Turfs and an Irish Champion Stakes. As a sire he has done remarkably won in Australia and New Zealand and is worthy of his supersire status down under. In Europe his record is modest given the very large books he has covered and there are plenty more to come as he covered an incredible 218 mares in Ireland in 2010 at €15000 before his fee was hiked to €25,000 for 2011 and 2012. He has yet to sire a group 1 winner in Europe from his European sired progeny which to me makes him disappointing. So You Think is top class but not quite at the level we were led to believe by some Aussie commentators. Redwood won a relatively soft Grade 1 in Canada, ditto Wigmore Hall and Wrote couldn’t win more than a nursery in Ireland before his Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf victory.   Based on his European results he is also double the price that he should be.



2012 Stallion fees-where is the value?

“Price is what you pay, value is what you get” , said Warren Buffett the legendary stock market investor. He made his money through value investing, essentially he believed the market prices often overlooked intrinsic value and therein lay opportunity. I couldn’t agree more when it comes to 2012 stallion fees. Below are some stallions that I feel represent good value at their listed fees for 2012.

1. Manduro (2002 Monsun ex Mandellicht by Be My Guest) 2012 fee €10,000

Manduro was a superstar on the track, rated world champion in 2007 when he was unbeaten in five starts from 1 mile to 12 furlongs. That year he won 3 group 1s (the Prix d’Isaphan, the Prince of Wales and the Prix Jacques le Marois) and most likely he would have won the Arc only for injury. Although he was technically a champion German 2 year old, he was nobody’s idea of a two year old sire. It is therefore very encouraging that he sired a group 1 winner in Mandean (ex Summertime Legacy by Darshaan). Impressively he came very close to a second Group 1 winner in his first crop with Bonfire (ex Night Frolic by Night Shift). He retired to stud at a fee of €40000 and it was €15,000 in 2011 so it was very surprising to me that after such a promising start it was dropped to €10,000. I suspect it will not be available at such a price in 2013 and he represents real value and a good opportunity for most Irish breeders to tap into a different sireline.

2. Big Bad Bob (2000 Bob Back ex Fantasy Girl by Marju) 2012 fee €6000

There is no use in trying to understand how Big Bad Bob has become a successful stallion. A very modest race career of which the highlight was winning a Group 3 in Germany wouldn’t have breeders queuing for his services. The fact that his sire Bob Back ended up as a dual purpose sire also didn’t suggest that Big Bad Bob was destined for success on the track. He does possess plenty of quality links in his distaff side but it was still surprising that he found a berth at stud. He was effectively a private stallion for Windflower Overseas Holdings (Cristina Patina) and reputedly free outside covers were available. However his results to date have been very impressive considering his very limited books to date (in quantity and quality). His percentages for runners to foals, winners to foals and stakes winners are all more suggestive of stallions covering at a multiple of his fee. Trainers like him and this should be of benefit in the sales ring and he is one of the few Roberto line representatives available to Irish breeders. It is clear that he upgrades his mares, and he seems to deliver soundness judging by the numbers of his offspring that actually reach the track. Nothing succeeds like success and breeders should judge him on his results.

3.Kendargent (2003 Kendor ex Pax Bella by Linamix) 2012 fee €4000

If you are looking for the next Big Bad Bob it might just be Kendargent. He was a non-stakes winner and his best performance was when fourth in the Prix Jean Prat. However he got his chance at stud and he is making the most of it. With his first crop of two year olds he had only five representatives on the track but three won including Group 2 winner Restiadargent (ex Restia by Montjeu) and Group 3 winner Kendam ex Damdam Freeze by Indian Rocket). He is a legacy of the Grey Sovereign line and an outsource for most mares. I would hope that he might get enough chances to prove he is not just a flash in the pan and at the price it is hard to complain. Incidentally if you want to use a different son of Kendor with a much more high profile racecourse career then Champion Stakes winner Literato (ex La Cibeles by Cardoun) is also available for a very modest €4000- but of course he has yet to have any runners which greatly tempers enthusiasm.

4. Medicean (1997 Machiavellian ex Mystic Goddess by Storm Bird) 2012 fee £8000

It looked for a time like Medicean was about to become an important sire in the UK after early success with the likes of Dutch Art and Nannina. His fee reached £30000 for the 2007 and 2008 seasons. Since then he has stumbled a little but his fee has reacted and at £8000 I think there are reasons to think he might represent some value at that price. Firstly the offspring of those heady days are now expected to make their mark, particularly as many of Medicean’s offspring (just like himself) improve with age. His son Dutch Art also just enjoyed a very good first season with his two year olds. His overall stats at 4% stakes winners are solid rather than spectacular but he is a decent stallion who might see a bounce in the coming years.

5. Discreet Cat (2003 Forestry ex Discreet Account by Private Account ) 2012 fee $12,500

I certainly don’t profess to be an expert on US racing but I am surprised by the fee for Discreet Cat which seems very reasonable. He was a really exciting horse who won his first 6 starts impressively before flopping as favourite for the Dubai World Cup and he was never the same again. He retired at a fee of $30,000 and had 11 winners with his first crop of two year olds, albeit from a large crop (107 named foals). However he has started 2012 very well with Out of Bounds (ex Unbridled Elaine) winning a Grade 3 and Discreet Dancer (ex West Side Dancer) winning a minor race impressively. Both horses are now quoted in top ten in the betting for this year’s Kentucky Derby. Even if neither horse graduates to major success he is fairly priced and there is very considerable potential upside in using him this year.

6. Birdstone (2001 Grindstone ex Dear Birdie by Storm Bird) 2012 fee $10,000

If Discreet Cat is about potential then Birdstone has been there and done that. A remarkable first crop saw him sire two classic winners in Summer Bird (ex Hong Kong Squall by Summer Squall) and Mine that Bird (ex Mining My Own by Smart Strike) and seven stakes winners from a crop of only 66 foals.  Since then he has gone incredibly quiet with only one other stakes winner and his stud fee which climbed to $30000 has dropped back to $10,000.  However his number of foals is modest by modern standards with a total of only 204 named foals in his 2006-2009 crops and his 8 stakes winners still leaves him on 4% stakes winners. He is recommended for anyone in the States who claims to want a shot at a classic horse on a budget. He was a triple Grade 1 winner,winning the Champagne Stakes at two, thwarting Smarty Jones triple crown bid in the Belmont and following up in the Travers. I suspect had he not won the Belmont over 12 furlongs he might have had a higher stud fee but such is the insanity of modern fashion. His sire Grindstone was a Kentucky Derby winner and his sire Unbridled was a Kentucky Derby winner. What more can US breeders want for $10000?

Montjeu- the fillies sire?

Everyone knew that Montjeu’s fillies are considerably less desirable than his colts. His tally of one Group 1 winning filly (Montare) compared to 15 Group 1 winning colts in the Northern Hemisphere tells its own story. In addition the Racing Post reported that his top 31 performers by Racing Post Rating were all male!

However three races at today’s so called ‘Future Champion’s Day’  might have changed a few perceptions in that regard and given good cheer to any owners of a Montjeu filly or broodmare.

Parish Hall

First up came the victory of Parish Hall (Teofilo ex Halla Siamsa (by Montjeu) in the Dewhurst Stakes to give Montjeu his first Group 1 winner as a broodmare sire.  Halla Siamsa was no great shakes as a racehorse winning only a 10 furlong heavy ground Fairyhouse maiden and never being tried in Stakes company. Her mating with Teofilo resulted in a 3×3 cross of Sadler’s Wells and given that Teofilo is by Galileo out of a Danehill mare then all of the big stallion names at Coolmore are close up in the pedigree. Jim Bolger said the winner was comparable with his previous winners (Teofilo, New Approach, Intense Focus), however to me it wasn’t the strongest Dewhurst. I would currently rate the winner more like Intense Focus than the other two. We never got to find out how far Teofilo would have stayed but it seems a fair bet that Parish Hall will stay 12 furlongs next year.

Never Can Tell

In the following race Never Can Tell (Montjeu ex Shaanara by Darshaan) proved a determined winner of the Cesarewitch. Although not a stakes race it is one of the most fiercely contested handicaps of the year.  If kept in training she should be able to pick up some black type next year and people will comment on the supposed Montjeu-Darshaan nick which gave us Derby winner Pour Moi.

Wading– the Urban Sea Legacy keeps on going

In the following race Wading proved an impressive winner of the Rockfel Stakes. She is now around 12-1 for both the Guineas and the Oaks, and I think the Oaks price might represent good value.  Wading is the first foal of Cherry Hinton who retired still a maiden after a five race career in the Summer of 2007. However that doesn’t quite tell the full story as she was fifth in the Oaks and runner up in the Group 3 Blue Wind Stakes. Cherry Hinton’s dam is of course the truly remarkable Urban Sea (who I previously wrote about at http://www.montjeu.com/archives/99 ). This year her final foal Born to Sea (by Invincible Spirit), began his career in the best possible fashion by winning the Listed Blenheim Stakes on his debut and he looks a real Guineas prospect for next year. It is not inconceivable that Urban Sea’s son and her granddaughter could both land classics next year. That would be a fitting tribute to the mare who has only Hasili as a rival to the title of greatest modern broodmare and it would be a nice feather in the cap for Montjeu who to date has been a relative disappointment with his fillies.

Postscript: It never rains but if pours. Exactly one week after I wrote this article, Montjeu trebled his tally of Grade 1 winning fillies.  In the space of just over an hour, Miss Keller (2006 Montjeu ex Ingozi by Warning) won the 10 furlong EP Taylor Stakes at Woodbine and later in the evening Sara Lynx (2007 Montjeu ex Steel Princess by Danehill) won the 12 furlong Canadian International. Miss Keller started her career in Ireland with John Oxx where she won twice before shipping across the Atlantic. She was already a Grade 2 winner prior to Sunday’s victory. Miss Keller has a very nice pedigree that has consistently thrown up stakes performers. Her dam Ingozi was a listed winner, her second dam Inchmurrin was top class winning the Group 2 Child Stakes as well as finishing runner up in Royal Ascots Coronation Stakes as well as finishing 4th in the EP Taylor Stakes that her granddaugher subsequently won. In addition Inchmurrin should survive in many pedigrees as she is the dam of Inchinor (by Ahonoora) who did well as a stallion having won at Group 3 level and finished runner up to Zafonic in the Dewhurst.

Sara Lynx also comes from a high class family and coincidentally also passed through the ring for 60000 guineas. Her dam Steel Princess won three times including the Group 3 Prix Cleopatra over 11 furlongs at Saint Cloud. The second dam Champaka (by Green Desert) was unraced but third dam Fleur Royale (by Mill Reef) won the Group 2 Pretty Polly Stakes and was runner up in the Irish Oaks. She is also the dam of Casey Tibbs (by Sadlers’ Wells) who found a berth at stud in South Africa.  Fourth dam Sweet Mimosa (by Le Levanstall ex Feemoss) won the French Oaks and is a sister to outstanding stayers Le Moss and Levmoss (who also won the Arc).

Conclusion: Harold Wilson famously said that ‘a week is a long time in politics’. Well it seems it is also long enough to help prompt a significant shift in our thinking about stallions. Montjeu’s lack of success with fillies seemed hard to rationalise but now perhaps it could be seen as a statistical aberration and the achievement gap between his offspring of different genders may continue to narrow over time.

WADING (IRE) 2009 f b
Montjeu
(IRE) 1996		 Sadler’s
Wells (USA) 1981		 Northern
Dancer (CAN) 1961		 Nearctic
(USA) 1954
Natalma
(USA) 1957
Fairy
Bridge (USA) 1975		 Bold
Reason (USA) 1968
Special
(USA) 1969
Floripedes
(FR) 1985		 Top
Ville (IRE) 1976		 High
Top (IRE) 1969
Sega
Ville (USA) 1968
Toute
Cy (FR) 1979		 Tennyson
(FR) 1970
Adele
Toumignon (IRE) 1971
Cherry
Hinton (GB) 2004		 Green
Desert (USA) 1983		 Danzig
(USA) 1977		 Northern
Dancer (CAN) 1961
Pas
De Nom (USA) 1968
Foreign
Courier (USA) 1979		 Sir
Ivor (USA) 1965
Courtly
Dee (USA) 1968
Urban
Sea (USA) 1989		 Miswaki
(USA) 1978		 Mr
Prospector (USA) 1970
Hopespringseternal
(USA) 1971
Allegretta
(GB) 1978		 Lombard
(GER) 1967
Anatevka
(GER) 1969