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Category: Trainers

  • M J Kinane-worth remembering

    Mick Kinane announced his retirement at the start of December. His decision to retire after his annus mirabilis with Sea the Stars is indicative of a jockey who had a perfect sense of timing. Many of the glowing tributes described him as the ‘best flat jockey that Ireland ever produced’. I’m not convinced he was demonstrably better than Pat Eddery, Kieran Fallon or Johnny Murtagh but he was certainly as good as any other Irish jockey.  In particular he was outstanding around Leopardstown and Ascot. I sometimes had reservations about his riding in France and the US, but it is a testament to his greatness that he tended to be judged against a benchmark of perfection.  Naturally over such a lengthy career he rode many future stallions (far too many to properly consider) but it is worth recalling some of the more notable names from such a storied career.

     The Liam Browne years

    Initially Kinane rode for Michael  Kauntze and Liam Browne. The only star from that time was the cheaply bred and purchased Dara Monarch (1979 Realm x Sardara by Alcide)who won an Irish 2000 Guineas and St James’s Palace Stakes for Liam Browne.  At stud his only offspring of significance was the Lockinge winner Broken Hearted.

    The Dermot Weld Years 1983-1997

    From there he moved across the Curragh to Rosewell House and Dermot Weld where he stayed from late 1983-1997. Although it was a successful partnership that led to a number of Irish championships, in terms of influential stallions it was disappointing. The most important was Theatrical (1982 Nureyev x Tree of Knowledge by Sassafras). but he achieved his major successes after leaving Ireland. Ironically Kinane chose not to ride Theatrical’s son Zagreb (1993 Theatrical x Sophonosibe by Wollow) for Weld in the 1996 Irish Derby favouring Michael Stoute’s Dr Massini who trailed in 7th.  Indeed the Irish Derby was an unlucky race for Kinane who was also touched off on Weld’s Definite Article (1992 Indian Ridge x Summer Fashion by Moorestyle) by Winged Love in 1995. Thus far Definite Article’s main achievement has been to sire the outstanding stayer Vinnie Roe who won an incredible 4 Irish St Legers.

    Flash of Steel (1983 Kris x Spark of Fire by Run the Gauntlet) won the 1986 Irish Guineas for Weld and Kinane but like many sons of Kris was disappointing at stud.  Big Shuffle (1984 Super Concorde x Raise Your Skirts by Elevation) won a Cork and Orrery in 1987 and he is still a popular and successful stallion in Germany where he proved a reliable source of speed. In 1992 Brief Truce (1989 Irish River x Falafel by Northern Dancer) got a superb ride from Kinane to win a St James Palace at 25-1 defeating Rodrigo de Triano and Arazi ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1hUplXewoDM ) but he was disappointing as a sire.   1990 saw Weld and Kinane secure an historic Belmont Victory with Go and Go (1987 Be my Guest x Irish Edition by Alleged) winning by 8 lengths. Again that son of Be My Guest made no impact as a sire. Twilight Agenda (1986 Devil’s Bag x Grenzen by Grenfall) was another Moyglare Stud horse who seemed to prosper once he was transferred to the US, but he also failed to make an impact at stud. Vintage Crop’s (1987 Rousillon x Overplay by Bustino) historic Melbourne Cup win is of no relevance as he was of course a gelding.  An interesting and unexpected successful stallion from that period was Unusual Heat (1990 Nureyev x Rossard by Glacial) who never won above listed class, finished last in the Irish 2000 Guineas but who has risen from obscurity to become an important sire in California.

    Outside Rides

    Mick acquired a reputation as the big race king or ‘super-sub’. He certainly compiled a very impressive record for outside stables. He rode Carroll House (1985 Lord Gayle x Tuna by Silver Shark) to win the 1989 Arc http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lpiwr6H7134&feature=related and Phoenix Champion Stakes. Like so many horses at the time he was sold to Japan but was eventually returned to Ireland as a National Hunt stallion.  The next year he rode Tirol (1987 Thatching x Alpine Niece by Great Nephew) to win the 2000 Guineas for Richard Hannon. He retired to Coolmore alongside his sire where he did sire the occasional top horse such as Tarascon and Miss Tahiti, but he never threatened to be the saviour of the Forli line. Mick got to ride Commander in Chief (1990 Dancing Brave x Slightly Dangerous by Roberto) to Derby success when Pat Eddery wrongly chose Tenby. Commander in Chief was also sold  to Japan where he failed to make a significant impact.

    Mick rode Belmez (1987 El Gran Senor x Grace Note by Top Ville) and King’s Theatre (1991 Sadler’s Wells x Regal Beauty by Princely Native) to win the King George for Henry Cecil. Belmez proved a very disappointing sire prior to his premature death. King’s Theatre is now marketed as a dual purpose sire and to be fair he is a very good jumps sire.

    The Aidan O’Brien Years 1999-2003

    The biggest and most pressurised job in Europe saw Kinane rise to the challenge admirably. The list of top class horses is very long and almost all of them got their chance at Coolmore. In terms of sires the outstanding name is Galileo the dual Derby winner from 2001 followed by Giant’s Causway who was a star of the 2000 season. 

    Rock of Gibraltar (1999 Danehill x by Offshore Boom by Be My Guest) is proving an average sire given his opportunities, and Kinane wasn’t at his finest when riding him in the Breeders Cup Mile.  2002 saw Ballydoyle house the Rock, along with High Chaparral (1999 Sadler’s Wells x Kasora by Darshaan) and Hawk Wing (1999 Woodman x La Lorgnette by Val De L’Orne). Mick made a rare error of judgement in choosing to ride Hawk Wing over High Chapparal in the Derby that year. In terms of stud careers Hawk Wing has been a disaster and High Chapparal (who at one point looked destined for a career as a National Hunt sire), has staged a spirited revival and is compiling a creditable record here and in Australia.

    Fasliyev (1997 Nureyev x Mr P’s Princess by Mr Prospector) was an unbeaten two year old in 1999 who had a sensational first crop but was unable to build on it.

    Minardi (1998 Boundary x Yarn by Mr Prospector) was another good two year old but a disappointing sire.   Johannesburg (1999 Hennessy x Myth by Ogygian) was a remarkable two year old in 2001 and his success in the Breeders Cup Juvenile was a breakthrough dirt success for Ballydoyle. As a sire he made a lot of money for Ashford Stud before his recent move to Japan, but to my mind he was overpriced and the occasional top horse hid a lot of dross.

    Mozart (1998 Danehill x Victoria Cross by Spectacular Bid) was an outstanding sprinter and on the evidence of his sole crop that featured Dandy Man and Amadeus Wolf his premature death was unfortunate for Coolmore.

    Stravinsky (1996 Nureyev x Fire the Groom by Blushing Groom) was another oustanding sprinter and although eventually sold by Coolmore to Japan he left behind a creditable record here and in the Southern hemisphere.

    The John Oxx years 2004-2009

    Only two horses are likely to have an impact as stallions, obviously Sea The Stars has everything going for him and its easy to forget that Azamour ( 2001 Night Shift x Asmara by Lear Fan) was also a Group 1 winner over a mile, 10 furlongs and 12 furlongs. There were some promising individuals amongst Azamour’s first crop of two year olds and his progeny are likely to progress.

    Five best stallions ridden by Kinane

    1. Montjeu (1996 Sadler’s Wells x Floripedes by Top Ville)

    Already a dual Derby winner by the time Kinane took over the ride. Kinane rode him to 4 Group 1 wins. The most impressive was his imperious victory in the King George. He bacame Mick’s second Arc winner but in my opinion it wasn’t Mick’s best ride as he was in a pocket and on testing ground Montjeu did very well to make up the ground on the heroic El Condor Pasa. Happily Mick subsequently earned the distinction of being co-breeder of Montjeu’s Derby winning son Authorized.

    2. Galileo (1998 Sadler’s Wells x Urban Sea by Miswaki).

    Mick rode him in 7 of his 8 races comfortably winning the Derby, Irish Derby and King George on him. There was some criticism of his ride in the Irish Champion Stakes when Godolphin and Fantastic Light defeated him by a head. His career finished disappointingly in the Breeders Cup when Ballydoyle seemed to ignore the stats involving the offspring of Sadler’s Wells running on the dirt.

    3. Monsun (1990 Konigsstuhl x Mosella by Surumu)

    Mick only rode him once but it was Group 1 win in the 1993 Aral Pokal. Ironically the second horse George Augustus was trained by his subsequent employer John Oxx and the third home shrewd idea was trained by one of his first bosses Michael Kauntze. I doubt if anyone present that day realised that they were viewing a horse destined to become the greatest sire Germany has produced.

    4. Giant’s Causeway (1997 Storm Cat  x Mariah’s Storm by Rahy).

    Mick rode him in 12 of his 13 starts winning 5 group 1’s on the ‘Iron Horse’ (George Duffield rode him in the Eclipse).  Many of these successes were hard fought and it is worth rewatching his ride in the Juddmonte International ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDPyQA-WWGo ) . Less pleasant viewing for Mick would be his ride in the Irish Guineas where Bachir stole a march on him and some would argue that dropping his whip near the finish of the Breeder’s Cup Classic affected the result (Tiznow won by a neck). Although Giant’s Causeway can sometimes divide opinions amongst breeders, he keeps churning out stakes horses and he is always capable of producing a top notcher particularly on turf or synthetics.

    5. Theatrical (1982 Nureyev x Tree of Knowledge by Sassafras).

    Mick was jocked off Theatrical to allow Lester Pigott the ride at Epsom. Back in Ireland Mick had won a  Derby Trial on Theatrical and rode a good race when second to Law Society in the 1985 Irish Derby. Theatrical subsequently improved slightly when transferred to Bill Mott.  Theatrical became a fine stallion who was somewhat underrated and at stud on the wrong continent.

    Five most disappointing stallions ridden by Kinane (relative to opportunities).

    1. Hawk Wing (1999 Woodman x La Lorgnette by Val De L’Orne)

    The horse who seemed to have everything, brilliant speed and enough stamina to finish second in a good Derby.  Mick rode him to win Group 1’s at 2 (National Stakes), 3 (a soft Eclipse) and 4 (the Lockinge). His performance in the Lockinge had Timeform struggling to find a better performance in recent decades http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XiXbsSCdGLs . Hawk Wing would have won a 2000 Guineas if Mick Kinane had ridden him but he was suspended at the time and regardless he might have chosen to ride Johannesburg in the Kentucky Derby that same day. In a prelude of things to come as far as Ballydoyle were concerned Jamie Spencer took over and got the horse beaten whilst in a further portent Johnny Murtagh did a fine job on Rock of Gibraltar. A terrible stallion (like most sons of Woodman) and now banished to Korea.

    2. Entrepreneur (1994 Sadler’s Wells x Exclusive Order by Exclusive Native)

    A Guineas winner who retired to Coolmore. He did sire Vintage Tipple who won an Irish Oaks but the fact that he is now in Russia says it all.

    3. King of Kings (1995 Sadler’s Wells x Zummerudd by Habitat).  Another Guineas winner by Sadler’s Wells who retired to Coolmore. Did ok in his Southern Hemisphere stint but now in Switzerland.

    4. One Cool Cat (2001 Storm Cat x Tacha by Mr Prospector).

    Mick rode him to win the National Stakes and Phoenix Stakes at two during his last season at Ballydoyle. His oldest progeny are still not even four and he has had a lot of two year old winners in the last season so it might seem very unreasonable to make a decision on him as yet, but he has been very disappointing with nothing of note to date.

    5. Fasliyev (1997 Nureyev x Mr P’s Princess by Mr Prospector).

    Mick rode him to win the Phoenix Stakes and Prix Morny as part of an unbeaten juvenile campaign. He is on this list because he misled a lot of people (including me) into thinking that he was about to become a major force in Europe after a scintillating first crop of two year olds. His stud fee rocketed but everything since then was a disappointment and he is now in Japan.

    Conclusion

    In a career of such longevity and such success it is only possible for me to provide a very potted history. The story will still need to be updated as Mick rode plenty of stallions about whom we will have to wait to make a full assessment. However at the end of his riding career we can safely state that Mick was a truly great jockey and I suspect that Mick is one of those people that sometimes aren’t fully appreciated until they are gone (that was certainly the case in Ballydoyle when they replaced him with Jamie Spencer 🙂

  • Farewell M.V.O’Brien

    Vincent O’Brien was my hero.  In the post war decades, he showed that Irish people didn’t have to emigrate to succeed on the world stage. In an Ireland that seemed to lack ambition, Vincent always strived for perfection- and usually attained it. He was more than just an incredible trainer he was the ultimate pedigree analyst. It is said that as a toddler he used to sit on his father’s knee and recite the names and pedigrees of all the horses in his fathers yard.  He probably still knew those pedigrees on the day he died.  With respect to the likes of Aidan O’Brien or Michael Stoute or Henry Cecil who are all great trainers of racehorses -they are just trainers.  For much of his career Vincent was overseeing a process that selected yearlings, trained them as well as they could be trained and then stood them or sold them on. In business jargon it was a vertically integrated production line and Vincent had to deal with all this additional responsibility. As the list below shows he made some great stallions.

    A reminder of a dozen great stallions he trained (in order)

    1. Sadler’s Wells (1981 Norther Dancer-Fairy Bridge by Bold Reason). The greatest European stallion of the past century. 73 Group one winners to date,14 times champion sire and his legacy now secure with his sons Montjeu and Galileo. In South Africa Fort Wood was champion sire and in the US El Prado and now his grandson Medaglio D’oro ensure his legacy throughout the globe. During Sadler’s Wells racing career in the early eighties many well bred horses were being wrapped in cotton wool, lest they lose some value. Not so Sadler’s Wells who was campaigned extensively at three and maintained his form throughout at distances from a mile to a mile and a half. He retired as winner of an Irish 2000 Guineas, Eclipse Stakes and Irish Champion Stakes. He was second in a memorable edition of the French Derby in which he separated Darshaan and Rainbow Quest. For all his talent he was overshadowed in Ballydoyle by his paternal half brother El Gran Senor.  Nobody overshadowed him at stud.  Vincent also trained his dam Fairy Bridge and almost all her offspring. Such knowledge of families developed over a lifetime was invaluable.

    2. Nijinsky (1967 Northern Dancer-Flaming Page by Bull Page). The last triple crown winner and unbeaten in his first 11 starts.  A superb sire with three Derby winners (Golden Fleece, Sharastani and Lammtarra) along with a Kentucky Derby winner in Ferdinand to his credit.  He sired 155 stakes winners from 862 foals (18%). Vincent trained many of his best offspring including King’s Lake, Caerleon, Golden Fleece and Royal Academy. He also famously paid 13.1 million for Seattle Dancer, who although he could never realistically justify that price did win the Derrinstown and Gallinule Stakes. Nijinsky was reasonably successful as a sire of sires with Caerleon being his best sire son, followed by Royal Academy and Green Dancer. 

    3. Storm Bird (1978 Norther Dancer-South Ocean by New Providence). A champion two year old who defeated To-Agori Mou in the Dewhurst. He  owes his elevated place on the list to the stud exploits of Storm Cat. Storm Bird sired many better racehorses than Storm Cat including Summer Squall and the fillies Balanchine and Indian Skimmer. His place in pedigrees is secure through Storm Cat and his sons. He also was an important broodmare sire counting Thunder Gulch and current hot sire Birdstone amongst the offspring of his daughters.

    4. Caerleon (1980 Nijinsky-Forseer by Buckpasser).  An exceptionally good looking colt Vincent reportedly regarded him as a perfect physical specimen. He wasn’t a bad racehorse either becoming Vincent’s only winner of the French Derby and winning a Benson and Hedges Gold Cup as well. He was twice champion sire and sired the outstanding dual derby winner Generous, Arc winner Marienbard, Oaks winner Lady Carla, 1000 Guineas winner Cape Verdi, St Leger winner Moonax amongst 128 (13%) stakes winners. His sons have been mostly unsuccessful to date as sires but he is doing well as a broodmare sire with the likes of Mutafaweq, Patavellian,Dimitrova and Avonbridge.

     5. Roberto (1969 Hail to Reason-Bramalea by Nashua). It has taken breeders a long time to appreciate the worth of Roberto in a pedigree.  As a racehorse he is often overlooked and often credited as merely the horse who produced a freak performance to defeat Brigadier Gerard. He was also a gutsy Derby winner and narrowly defeated in the 2000 Guineas. At four he won a Coronation Cup impressively and Michael Kauntze (who was assistant to Vincent O’Brien at the time), thought he had as much talent as Nijinsky, but just didn’t always display it. As a sire he got many decent performers including Sookera, Slightly Dangerous, Silver Hawk and Lear Fan but he is much more important as a sire of sires and as a broodmare sire. His best stallion sons include Kris S, Dynamformer, Red Ransom and the Japanese based Brian’s time who all sired horses better than themselves. As a broodmare sire he is responsible for Slightly Dangerous multitude of talented offspring (Warning, Commander in Chief,Deploy, Dushyantor) and Sookera has become ancestress of the Hasili tribe. There can be a nasty streak running through his offspring.

     6. Alleged (1974- Hoist the Flag-Princess Pout by Prince John). A dual winner of the Prix de l’Arc his record would have been better had he been at stud in Europe. He sired a pair of Irish Derby winners in Sir Harry Lewis and Law Society, a dual classic winner in Midway Lady, a St Leger winner in Shantou, an Irish Leger winner in Leading Counsel and a Breeders Cup turf winner in Miss Alleged. He was also a top broodmare sire with classic winners Dr Devious, Dream Well, Go and Go, Sulamani, Suave Dancer, Brian Boru, Eswarah amongst a host of top flight winners. His legacy is also strong in National Hunt breeding where he has leading sire Fleminsfirth, following on from Montelimar and others. Like Roberto  many of his offspring are known for their less than pleasant temperaments.

    7. Sir Ivor (1965 Sir Gaylord-Attica by Mr.Trouble). A brilliant winner of a top class Guineas, he followed up by displaying an electrifying turn of foot in the Derby. He was campaigned relentlessly turning out 13 times over two seasons and like others he maintained his form throughout. However it was testament to Vincent’s skill that he maintained his form throughout. In Sir Ivor’s case he managed to follow on a second place behind Vaguely Noble in the Arc with wins in the Champion Stakes and Arc. He became primarily renowned as a sire of fillies leaving the likes of Arc winner Ivanjica,Lady Capulet (who Vincent trained to win a classic on her debut and is dam of El Prado) and Godetia and Cloonlara (both trained by VIncent). Of his colts the best was Bates Motel. He makes the list by virtue of the moderate runner Sir Tristram who has had a huge influence on Australian/New Zealand breeding and his daughters who have given us such stallions as El Prado, Green Desert, Alzao, and Bluebird.

    8. Fairy King (1982 Norther Dancer-Fairy Bridge by Bold Reason).  Sadler’s Wells brother was injured on his only run and gained a place at stud by virtue of his pedigree.  He became a rags to riches success story and died aged 17 when he was starting to enjoy the best of patronage. In his time he manged to sire a Derby winner in Oath, classic winners in Turtle Island and Victory Note along with two exceptional horses in Helissio and Falbrav. His European runners have disappointed as sires of sires but in Australia he has left behind champion sire Encasto de Lago.

    9. El Gran Senor (1981 Norther Dancer-Sex Appeal by Buckpasser. Probably the greatest miler that Vincent ever trained. He won the Guineas in devastating fashion. He was a full brother to Try My Best who similarly had been a champion two year old winning the Dewhurst. Try My Best was allegedly  nobbled  prior to finishing last in the Guineas.  The 1984 Derby was meant to be a coronation and in the bloodstock bubble of the time he was being valued at upto $60 million dollars, or someone estimated it to be 12 times his weight in gold.  In a race laced with ironies he was beaten by his paternal half brother Secreto trained by Vincents son David, after looking all over the winner for Pat Eddery.  Lester Piggott allegedly whispered in Vincent’s ear after the race “do you miss me” and many criticised Eddery for his ride. El Gran senors value slumped to $40 million. You couldn’t make it up. He ran once more in the Irish Derby before being retired to stand alongside his sire at E.P Taylors stud in Maryland. Nobody mentioned his parrot mouth. He was a top class sire and could have been a great sire but for fertility problems. His first crop included Racing Post trophy winner Al Hareb and Saratogan who was a close third in the Dewhurst for Vincent. El Gran Senor’s best offspring included 5 time Group 1 winner Rodrigo de Triano, King George winner Belmez and Breeders Cup sprint winner Lit de Justice. He is also sire of Toussaud who apart from being a Grade 1 winner is the dam of 4 Grade 1 winners including Chester House and Empire Maker. His stud record showed a highly respectable 55 stakes winners (14%).

     10.Be My Guest (1974 Northern Dancer-What A Treat by Tudor Minstrel). In 1977 Vincent had an embarrassment of three year old riches at his disposal with The Minstrel, Alleged, Artaius, Godswalk, Lady Capulet and others. Be My Guest was well behind the Minstrel in the Derby but won the Desmond Stakes and the Waterford Crystal mile. His pedigree was sufficient to ensure him a place at newly formed Coolmore. It was said that so ‘no mare could pass by Coolmore without being offered a deal to Be My Guest’ but it certainly paid off. In his first crop he sired Assert who won the Irish and French Derby’s for David O’Brien and On the House who won the 1000 Guineas. He ended up Champion sire in 1982 and predictably his fee soared. He never quite followed through on that initial promise although he was always capable of siring a top horse such as King George winner Pentire, Derby runner up Most Welcome and Dermot Weld’s Belmont winner Go and Go. However he has not produced a major sire son and his legacy might be as a broodmare sire as he is broodmare sire of Rock of Gibraltar and Manduro amongst others.

    11. Woodman (1982 Mr Prospector- Playmate by Buckpasser). Vincent trained a few sons of Mr Prospector but he never seemed totally committed to that stallion. That said he paid $3 million for Woodman who was ranked champion Irish two year old in 1984 but who but who was affected by the virus that troubled the stable in 1985.  He was retired to Ashford where he became one of those stallions that seemed to either sire superstars or duds with little in-between. He had an incredible first crop of 45 foals that included three champions in Mujtahid, Hector Protector and Hansel. He never consistently hit those heights afterwards but sired outstanding performers in Bosra Sham (a brother to Hector), Timber Country and Hawk Wing. His sons have been disappointing at stud but he is now compiling a very respectable record as a broodmare sire.

    12. El Prado (1989 Sadler’s Wells-Lady Capulet by Sir Ivor). When he retired to stud if anyone had told me that El Prado would become champion sire in the US, I would have laughed at the idea. He was a Group 1 winner of the National Stakes but it was a very weak renewal of the race and he was subsequently well beaten in a sales race. He also won the Beresford stakes but failed to train on and was well beaten in his three runs at three. It must have been a pleasure for Vincent to train him as he knew the family so well, having trained his sire, his dam and his damsire to win classics and his half brother Entitled to be placed in two classics . He was retired to stud in the US and as we now know Sadler’s Wells couldn’t sire a claiming winner on dirt which makes El Prado’s success all the more surprising. And there has been plenty of success headed by Medaglia D’Oro, backed up by the likes of Borrego, Kitten’s Joy and Artie Schiller. The future of the line is also looking promising with many of his better sons at an early stage in their careers and Medaglia D’oro sire of Rachel Alexandra. He may have been an unlikely success but such surprises keep the world of breeding from getting too predictable.

    Gems of wisdom in relation to breeding from Vincent.

    1. Vincent once said in an interview that you can’t train a horse to stay. You can teach them to settle but pedigree dictates whether they stay or not.

    2. Ignore the experts. There was a bias against chestnuts, a bias against having four white socks and a bias against small horses. Vincent still paid $200,000 for The Minstrel and ended up with a champion worth $9 million.

     What did he ever get wrong? Very little but he did let Nureyev slip through his hands at the sales. There was also a time when Ballydoyle was host to a lot of Forli’s and although they enjoyed success on the track (especially with Thatch) no significant stallion emerged. Vincent also  was very partial to the first crop of Golden Fleece, but like then stable jockey Cash Asmussen, they proved disappointing. However such things are mere trifles. Vincent O’Brien has utterly changed the history of the thoroughbred. His legacy is the Irish bloodstock industry and the thousands of jobs which it supports. Ar dheis Dé go raibh a anam dílis

  • Arc Weekend-winners and losers

    With 7 Group Ones and four Group 2’s spread over the Saturday and Sunday, Arc weekend is as good as it gets in Europe. All age groups, all distances all sexes are catered for with championship honours up for grabs. This years results threw up a lot of surprises with plenty of items to debate.

    A good weekend for

     1. French trainers- only two races went to overseas trainers with Paco Boy winning for Richard Hannon and Lady Marian for Germany. It probably emphasises that Arc weekend is the ultimate target for many French trained horses whereas it is often coming at the end of a long hard season for Irish and British trained horses who had peaked earlier in the summer

    2. Juddmonte. A stellar weekend for Juddmonte stallions with Zamindar’s daughter Zarkava’s win in the Arc reinforcing her superstar status. For good measure Beat Hollow emerged from the doldrums with Proportional putting up a very impressive performance in the Prix Marcel Boussac to give him his first Group One winner. The jam on top was provided when Naaqoos won the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere giving Oasis Dream his first Group One winner.

    3. The Aga Khan’s methods. Zarkava represents a triumph for the Aga Khans belief in certain families. It is remarkable that her 10th dam is his grandfathers foundation mare Mumtaz Mahal and her fifth dam is Oaks and Guineas winner Petite Etoile a filly Lester Piggott regards as the best he ever rode. Despite a number of moderate non-entities since Petite Etoile the Aga Khan never loses faith in his families and got his just reward with a great performance from the best filly since Miesque.

    4. Dyhim Diamond. The unherealded Dyhim Diamond had a sparkling weekend that emphasised his versatility. Firstly five year old Bannaby won the 20 furlongs Prix de Cadran defeating Yeats and on Sunday Milanais came within a neck of winning the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. Dyhim Diamond was a son of Night Shift who never won above Group 3 level, but previously gave notice of his ability to upgrade his mares with the exploits of Prix Jean Prat winner Turtle Bowl.  Dyhim Diamond stood in France for €2000 at Haras de la Tuilerie, but is now plying his trade in Haras de Ulzama in Spain. This weekends results might see efforts to repatriate him to France.

    5. Nayef. Lady Marian’s win in the Prix de l’Opera caps  a fine year for the Shadwell stallion who has emerged as an important sire as earlier highlighted by Tamayuz’s Group 1 double and Spacious runner-up slot in the 1000 Guineas. His fee has been increased to £15000 for next year but that still represents tremendous value.

    6. Desert Style.  Paco Boy provided Desert Style with his second Prix de la Foret winner in three years, following in the hoofprints of Caradak. He has always been an inconsistent sire but is well capable of getting a top class performer such as Mandesha and Bachir. At a fee of €12,000 he could no longer be considered cheap but this was a nice reminder of his ability.

    Disappointing weekend

    1. Coolmore. Amazingly Peintre Celebre’s son Trincot’s victory in the Group 2 Prix Dollar was the only pattern success for a Coolmore stallion at the weekend.

    2. Ballydoyle/Aidan O’Brien. Before his horses left Tipperary Aidan O’Brien would have expected at least two Group One wins with hopes of adding another one or two. He left with none after odds-on defeats for Yeats and Mastercraftsman and disappointing runs by Duke of Marmalade and Moonstone. Only Soldier of Fortune performed with credit.  His odds of reaching the record of 26 Group ones in a season lengthened after the weekend.

    3. Gallic Farce: The failure of Fleeting Spirit’s stalls to fully open in the Prix de l’Abbaye led to a false start. Unfortunately a number of jockeys didn’t notice the false start flag and Hungarian superstar Overdose ran flat out for the five furlongs ‘winning’ the race in a time just outside the course record.  Had he triumphed it would have been a real fairytale success for an unwanted son of Starborough who cost just £2000

  • Sires in Form- Mere Coincidence?

    There is a popular thread on the betfair breeding forum regarding ‘sires in form’.  Forumites diligently monitor and report upon those sires who are having the most winners in a particular month. Thus far in July Royal Applause has had 18 winners, ahead of Bahamian Bounty and Kheleyf. Every month seems to see different sires go through hot streaks and then revert back to normality. So is there an explanation for these streaks, can they be predicted and can punters profit from them?

    Possible Explanations:

    1.The most likely explanation for these winning streaks is simply that they are random events. If you toss a coin thousands of times you would expect to regularly get sequences of successive heads or tails. Clusters are to be expected in any random pattern. Sires suddenly producing lots of winners is just a random clustering event that cannot be predicted.

    2. Ground Conditions. Many stallions produce offspring with definite going preferences. If we have an unusually wet summer and the ground is heavy then it would be no surprise to see a sire like Efisio sire lots of winners. Similar logic would apply to firm ground stallions. Interestingly if ground conditions were the explanation then we would expect to see fewer such ‘hot streaks’ on the all-weather where ground is not as variable.

    3. Linked to trainer form. Many trainers have favourite stallions and will have a disproportionate number of the offspring of those horses in their stables. Aidan O’Briens stable is full of Montjeu’s Galileo’s and Danehill Dancers. When Ballydoyle goes through a purple patch then Montjeu, Galileo and  Danehill Dancer have lots of winners. Michael Stoute trains for Cheveley Park and he would have lots of Pivotals and Mediceans and other trainers also have there favourites usually dictated by budget. When the stable is in form then the sires popular with that trainer would be also expected to have plenty of winners.

    4. Linked to opportunity. If a sire happens to do well with stayers and there are lots of staying races during a period then it is logical he will do better during that time. Similarly a sire whose two year olds need at least a mile to be seen to best effect won’t get many two year old winners before the Autumn. What appears to be a sire going through a ‘hot streak’ is in fact simply that his offspring are finally getting an opportunity to run at their optimum trips.

    5. Trainer perceptions. One Cool Cat had a great start with his two year olds from March-June. Trainers expected his offspring to be precocious and accordingly had them ready to run early in the season. Conversely few trainers had their Sulamani two year olds ready to go early in the season because naturally trainers would have viewed them more as needing time. The trainers perceptions determined the training of the horses. These perceptions meant that One Cool Cats offspring were ready to run and mop up the early season two year old races which are typically somewhat easier to win.

    6. Time of Year. It was famously said of the offspring of Ribot that they were better with ‘the sun on their backs’ and it is likely that due to maturation issues some sires have offspring that are better earlier or later in the year. Springtime could see winning streaks for sires who sire precocious two year olds and conversely for sires whose offspring improve with age. The logic here is that the horses would be having their first runs of the new season but they would still be running off ratings achieved when they were too immature to show their full potential.

    Conclusion

    It is impossible to be definitive as to the reasons why sires seem to undergo sudden hot streaks. I think there is some truth in all of the above explanations. Accordingly I propose a new all-embracing theory that I modestly call Sheahan’s Theory.

    6. All of the above-cycles and the handicapper. In statistics it is believed that over time everything regresses to the mean. A typical stallions offspring might win 15% of the races in which they run. If that sire goes through a ‘hot streak’ in which his offspring win 25% of their races in a month, it is still likely that the average at the end of the year or period under review will be close to the long term average.  However within racing there is another factor which quickly ends winning streaks namely the work of the handicapper and of fixed penalties. If a horse wins he will be penalised by the handicapper and will have to improve to win again. If lots of two year olds are winning maidens, next time out they will find themselves competing in higher class conditions or stakes races or alternatively carrying a lot of weight in nurseries. Unless the horse has improved they will not win next time out and indeed they will probably need a few unsuccessful runs before dropped by the handicapper back to a winnable mark.  A random cluster of wins by the offspring of a stallion could be followed by a lull when all of these horses ran next time out under penalties  until the horses were dropped by the handicapper. It is then possible for them all to come good again in a cluster later in the year. These factors would be reinforced by ground/trainer or opportunity issues. For example imagine the offspring of stallion X are best as three year olds with firm ground over trips in excess of 12 furlongs. When they ran early in their three year old days they would probably be competing over 8-10 furlongs. When stepped up in trip we would expect more of them to win and this could be amplified by suitable ground. This period might be their hot winning streak. If it was a wet summer they would be inconvenienced and they would also be running under penalties after the hot streak. We could expect many to struggle to win over their next few runs and the handicapper would drop them again. Come late August the combined effect of the drop by the handicapper and perhaps an improvement in going could see another hot streak. In racing nothing is as random as it seems….