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What has happened to NH horses?

In this months international thoroughbred magazine I wrote about the decline of the National Hunt horse. The full text is shown below:

What has happened to National Hunt horses?

I normally sigh when I hear older racing folk talk about the good old days. If you were to believe them, horses were tougher, jockeys were tougher, the sport had more characters and everything was somehow better. To my surprise when I did a comparative study on the leading national hunt sires table over the past twenty years, it seems the traditionalists are almost certainly right when it comes to the assertion that horses were sounder in the past.

Methodology
I looked at the Racing Post tables of the 50 leading sires by prize money in the UK and Ireland in various years since their records began. I then aggregated the number of runners, winners, runs and wins for these top 50 sires and calculated the average number of runs per runner in a season and the average number of wins per winner. The results are shown in the table below.

*2000-2001 results were affected by the cancellations of some meetings due to the foot and mouth crisis

Summary of Findings.

1. The average number of runs per horse per season is in freefall, dropping from over 4 per season to its current mark of 3.66. This is the major cause of concern arising from this research as it seems to indicate that our current national hunt horses are much less robust than their equivalents from only 20 years ago.
2. The jumping horses who do win, win far fewer races per season than in the past. The average number of wins has fallen from 1.78 wins per season to 1.48 per season a 17% reduction. This however may simply be a logical follow-on from the fact that all horses (winners and non-winners) are running much less often.
3. The impact of bigger book sizes is very apparent. The number of combined runners in a season for the top 50 sires went from 2,207 (an average of 42 runners per stallion) to 5,347 (average of 107 runners per stallion), a 142% increase in 21 years.

Considering the Options -Possible Reasons for decline
1. The question that arises is whether the reduced run frequency is a deliberate policy by trainers who are adopting a more protective and selective approach to racing their charges or an indication that their charges cannot handle a more regular racing regime? Its difficult to be definitive but it is reasonable to assume that owners nowadays( as in the past), prefer to have their horses compete if they are fit and well and capable of winning. As a trainers primary concern is to keep his owners content, I can see no reason why they would deliberately pursue a policy of fewer runs apart from special cases where a horses handicap mark is being protected or campaigns are all about one race (eg Best Mate and the Gold Cup).

2. Are trainers responsible for the decline? Perhaps increased string sizes with less individual attention for horses coupled with altered training techniques such as interval training and all weather gallops have caused an increase in injury rates? I don’t believe it to be case and improved veterinary techniques should also see faster rehabilitation from injuries but in the absence of statistical data we have to consider the possibility.

3. Blame the stallions and the bigger books. Its easy to conclude that because stallion books are bigger and horses are running less often there is a cause and effect situation. I don’t subscribe to that theory. If we take an example based on a book of say 80 mares being ‘acceptable’ and anything more than that being ‘excessive’ it is easy to see logical difficulties in this approach. I fail to see how by virtue of covering a single mare beyond the magic number (80 in this case) that the quality of all the offspring could be effected, as this would require the genes of the foals in the already pregnant mares to somehow be altered by a subsequent event! More credibly it could be argued that bigger books mean that less thought was given to compatibility with the mare, but this is a subjective area and unless there is an obvious conformation issue on both sides it may not be quite so easy to prove a stallion selection was unwise.

3b. Its not the bigger books- it is the bigger books being used on the wrong stallions. There is perhaps some merit in this argument. We have seen many examples of unproven new national hunt stallions attracting massive books of mares.  If these stallions prove to be progenitors of unsound offspring then there will be an awful lot of fragile offspring on the ground. Against that, the trend for bigger books has been of even greater benefit to the successful and proven stallions who it should be hoped will therefore have an opportunity to transfer their positive attributes to even greater numbers.

4. It’s something else entirely- The decline in average number of starts is not exclusive to jumps racing. Research on lifetime starts in the US lifetime show they almost halved since the 1950’s.  Unsound stallions who required medication to race is often put forward as a major cause and the internationalisation of bloodstock means that those bloodlines are prevalent here also. It is also possible that the modern thoroughbred has passed a tipping point in terms of soundness, it is after all a closed stud book and with every generation the level of inbreeding is increasing. National Hunt racing may just be another example of this and something more radical than tinkering with book sizes or alternative stallion selection will be required to make an appreciable difference to this trend.

Conclusion

We often don’t notice change when it occurs quite gradually. Looking in the mirror each morning, the ovenight ageing process is imperceptible but looking back on old photographs the transformations become obvious. Something similar is happening before our eyes in National Hunt racing. Horses are racing and winning less often each season and the cumulative effect is now quite striking. This should be a matter of concern to all lovers of the sport and at the very least further research into the underlying causes is required.

Poor value stallion fees 2012

Having already looked at stallions I feel are under-priced, in the interests of balance I feel I should shame those studs that are overcharging for their wares. That is the benefit of not being reliant on advertising:) The following stallion fees, for sires that have had more than one crop on the track  had me scratching my head:

1. Elusive City (2000 Elusive Quality ex Star of Paris by Dayjur) 2012 fee €15,000

Amazingly Elusive City is the most expensive stallion standing in France for 2012.  It indicates the paucity of proven top class flat stallions that remain there and it is also amazing that they can get away charging €15,000 for a sire who has sired a solitary Group 1 winner in Elusive Wave and who has sired a paltry 14 stakes winners (2%)  from 855 foals in two hemispheres. Elusive City was a high class two year old winning a Prix Morny and a Richmond Stakes (subsequently disqualified for a prohibited substance), but he was readily defeated by Oasis Dream in the Middle Park and he  failed to win at three. He was originally at stud in Ireland before moving to Haras d’Etreham where he stood at 20k before dropping back to 15k for the past two seasons. It made sense to stand him in France as his biggest win was there and his best performer the aforementioned Elusive Wave (ex Multicolour Wave by Rainbow Quest) won the French 1000 Guineas. However there is very little depth of quality amongst his offspring and to me he is double the price his results to date warrant.

2. High Chaparral (1999 Sadler’s Wells ex Kasora by Darshaan) 2012 fee €25,000

It would be hard to quibble with the exploits of High Chaparral as a racehorse, his final record was 13 runs, 10 wins and 3 places. Included in his wins were 6 Group or Grade 1’s including the Racing Post Trophy at 2, the Derby and Irish Derby, a pair of Breeders Cup Turfs and an Irish Champion Stakes. As a sire he has done remarkably won in Australia and New Zealand and is worthy of his supersire status down under. In Europe his record is modest given the very large books he has covered and there are plenty more to come as he covered an incredible 218 mares in Ireland in 2010 at €15000 before his fee was hiked to €25,000 for 2011 and 2012. He has yet to sire a group 1 winner in Europe from his European sired progeny which to me makes him disappointing. So You Think is top class but not quite at the level we were led to believe by some Aussie commentators. Redwood won a relatively soft Grade 1 in Canada, ditto Wigmore Hall and Wrote couldn’t win more than a nursery in Ireland before his Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf victory.   Based on his European results he is also double the price that he should be.



2012 Stallion fees-where is the value?

“Price is what you pay, value is what you get” , said Warren Buffett the legendary stock market investor. He made his money through value investing, essentially he believed the market prices often overlooked intrinsic value and therein lay opportunity. I couldn’t agree more when it comes to 2012 stallion fees. Below are some stallions that I feel represent good value at their listed fees for 2012.

1. Manduro (2002 Monsun ex Mandellicht by Be My Guest) 2012 fee €10,000

Manduro was a superstar on the track, rated world champion in 2007 when he was unbeaten in five starts from 1 mile to 12 furlongs. That year he won 3 group 1s (the Prix d’Isaphan, the Prince of Wales and the Prix Jacques le Marois) and most likely he would have won the Arc only for injury. Although he was technically a champion German 2 year old, he was nobody’s idea of a two year old sire. It is therefore very encouraging that he sired a group 1 winner in Mandean (ex Summertime Legacy by Darshaan). Impressively he came very close to a second Group 1 winner in his first crop with Bonfire (ex Night Frolic by Night Shift). He retired to stud at a fee of €40000 and it was €15,000 in 2011 so it was very surprising to me that after such a promising start it was dropped to €10,000. I suspect it will not be available at such a price in 2013 and he represents real value and a good opportunity for most Irish breeders to tap into a different sireline.

2. Big Bad Bob (2000 Bob Back ex Fantasy Girl by Marju) 2012 fee €6000

There is no use in trying to understand how Big Bad Bob has become a successful stallion. A very modest race career of which the highlight was winning a Group 3 in Germany wouldn’t have breeders queuing for his services. The fact that his sire Bob Back ended up as a dual purpose sire also didn’t suggest that Big Bad Bob was destined for success on the track. He does possess plenty of quality links in his distaff side but it was still surprising that he found a berth at stud. He was effectively a private stallion for Windflower Overseas Holdings (Cristina Patina) and reputedly free outside covers were available. However his results to date have been very impressive considering his very limited books to date (in quantity and quality). His percentages for runners to foals, winners to foals and stakes winners are all more suggestive of stallions covering at a multiple of his fee. Trainers like him and this should be of benefit in the sales ring and he is one of the few Roberto line representatives available to Irish breeders. It is clear that he upgrades his mares, and he seems to deliver soundness judging by the numbers of his offspring that actually reach the track. Nothing succeeds like success and breeders should judge him on his results.

3.Kendargent (2003 Kendor ex Pax Bella by Linamix) 2012 fee €4000

If you are looking for the next Big Bad Bob it might just be Kendargent. He was a non-stakes winner and his best performance was when fourth in the Prix Jean Prat. However he got his chance at stud and he is making the most of it. With his first crop of two year olds he had only five representatives on the track but three won including Group 2 winner Restiadargent (ex Restia by Montjeu) and Group 3 winner Kendam ex Damdam Freeze by Indian Rocket). He is a legacy of the Grey Sovereign line and an outsource for most mares. I would hope that he might get enough chances to prove he is not just a flash in the pan and at the price it is hard to complain. Incidentally if you want to use a different son of Kendor with a much more high profile racecourse career then Champion Stakes winner Literato (ex La Cibeles by Cardoun) is also available for a very modest €4000- but of course he has yet to have any runners which greatly tempers enthusiasm.

4. Medicean (1997 Machiavellian ex Mystic Goddess by Storm Bird) 2012 fee £8000

It looked for a time like Medicean was about to become an important sire in the UK after early success with the likes of Dutch Art and Nannina. His fee reached £30000 for the 2007 and 2008 seasons. Since then he has stumbled a little but his fee has reacted and at £8000 I think there are reasons to think he might represent some value at that price. Firstly the offspring of those heady days are now expected to make their mark, particularly as many of Medicean’s offspring (just like himself) improve with age. His son Dutch Art also just enjoyed a very good first season with his two year olds. His overall stats at 4% stakes winners are solid rather than spectacular but he is a decent stallion who might see a bounce in the coming years.

5. Discreet Cat (2003 Forestry ex Discreet Account by Private Account ) 2012 fee $12,500

I certainly don’t profess to be an expert on US racing but I am surprised by the fee for Discreet Cat which seems very reasonable. He was a really exciting horse who won his first 6 starts impressively before flopping as favourite for the Dubai World Cup and he was never the same again. He retired at a fee of $30,000 and had 11 winners with his first crop of two year olds, albeit from a large crop (107 named foals). However he has started 2012 very well with Out of Bounds (ex Unbridled Elaine) winning a Grade 3 and Discreet Dancer (ex West Side Dancer) winning a minor race impressively. Both horses are now quoted in top ten in the betting for this year’s Kentucky Derby. Even if neither horse graduates to major success he is fairly priced and there is very considerable potential upside in using him this year.

6. Birdstone (2001 Grindstone ex Dear Birdie by Storm Bird) 2012 fee $10,000

If Discreet Cat is about potential then Birdstone has been there and done that. A remarkable first crop saw him sire two classic winners in Summer Bird (ex Hong Kong Squall by Summer Squall) and Mine that Bird (ex Mining My Own by Smart Strike) and seven stakes winners from a crop of only 66 foals.  Since then he has gone incredibly quiet with only one other stakes winner and his stud fee which climbed to $30000 has dropped back to $10,000.  However his number of foals is modest by modern standards with a total of only 204 named foals in his 2006-2009 crops and his 8 stakes winners still leaves him on 4% stakes winners. He is recommended for anyone in the States who claims to want a shot at a classic horse on a budget. He was a triple Grade 1 winner,winning the Champagne Stakes at two, thwarting Smarty Jones triple crown bid in the Belmont and following up in the Travers. I suspect had he not won the Belmont over 12 furlongs he might have had a higher stud fee but such is the insanity of modern fashion. His sire Grindstone was a Kentucky Derby winner and his sire Unbridled was a Kentucky Derby winner. What more can US breeders want for $10000?

Montjeu- the fillies sire?

Everyone knew that Montjeu’s fillies are considerably less desirable than his colts. His tally of one Group 1 winning filly (Montare) compared to 15 Group 1 winning colts in the Northern Hemisphere tells its own story. In addition the Racing Post reported that his top 31 performers by Racing Post Rating were all male!

However three races at today’s so called ‘Future Champion’s Day’  might have changed a few perceptions in that regard and given good cheer to any owners of a Montjeu filly or broodmare.

Parish Hall

First up came the victory of Parish Hall (Teofilo ex Halla Siamsa (by Montjeu) in the Dewhurst Stakes to give Montjeu his first Group 1 winner as a broodmare sire.  Halla Siamsa was no great shakes as a racehorse winning only a 10 furlong heavy ground Fairyhouse maiden and never being tried in Stakes company. Her mating with Teofilo resulted in a 3×3 cross of Sadler’s Wells and given that Teofilo is by Galileo out of a Danehill mare then all of the big stallion names at Coolmore are close up in the pedigree. Jim Bolger said the winner was comparable with his previous winners (Teofilo, New Approach, Intense Focus), however to me it wasn’t the strongest Dewhurst. I would currently rate the winner more like Intense Focus than the other two. We never got to find out how far Teofilo would have stayed but it seems a fair bet that Parish Hall will stay 12 furlongs next year.

Never Can Tell

In the following race Never Can Tell (Montjeu ex Shaanara by Darshaan) proved a determined winner of the Cesarewitch. Although not a stakes race it is one of the most fiercely contested handicaps of the year.  If kept in training she should be able to pick up some black type next year and people will comment on the supposed Montjeu-Darshaan nick which gave us Derby winner Pour Moi.

Wading– the Urban Sea Legacy keeps on going

In the following race Wading proved an impressive winner of the Rockfel Stakes. She is now around 12-1 for both the Guineas and the Oaks, and I think the Oaks price might represent good value.  Wading is the first foal of Cherry Hinton who retired still a maiden after a five race career in the Summer of 2007. However that doesn’t quite tell the full story as she was fifth in the Oaks and runner up in the Group 3 Blue Wind Stakes. Cherry Hinton’s dam is of course the truly remarkable Urban Sea (who I previously wrote about at http://www.montjeu.com/archives/99 ). This year her final foal Born to Sea (by Invincible Spirit), began his career in the best possible fashion by winning the Listed Blenheim Stakes on his debut and he looks a real Guineas prospect for next year. It is not inconceivable that Urban Sea’s son and her granddaughter could both land classics next year. That would be a fitting tribute to the mare who has only Hasili as a rival to the title of greatest modern broodmare and it would be a nice feather in the cap for Montjeu who to date has been a relative disappointment with his fillies.

Postscript: It never rains but if pours. Exactly one week after I wrote this article, Montjeu trebled his tally of Grade 1 winning fillies.  In the space of just over an hour, Miss Keller (2006 Montjeu ex Ingozi by Warning) won the 10 furlong EP Taylor Stakes at Woodbine and later in the evening Sara Lynx (2007 Montjeu ex Steel Princess by Danehill) won the 12 furlong Canadian International. Miss Keller started her career in Ireland with John Oxx where she won twice before shipping across the Atlantic. She was already a Grade 2 winner prior to Sunday’s victory. Miss Keller has a very nice pedigree that has consistently thrown up stakes performers. Her dam Ingozi was a listed winner, her second dam Inchmurrin was top class winning the Group 2 Child Stakes as well as finishing runner up in Royal Ascots Coronation Stakes as well as finishing 4th in the EP Taylor Stakes that her granddaugher subsequently won. In addition Inchmurrin should survive in many pedigrees as she is the dam of Inchinor (by Ahonoora) who did well as a stallion having won at Group 3 level and finished runner up to Zafonic in the Dewhurst.

Sara Lynx also comes from a high class family and coincidentally also passed through the ring for 60000 guineas. Her dam Steel Princess won three times including the Group 3 Prix Cleopatra over 11 furlongs at Saint Cloud. The second dam Champaka (by Green Desert) was unraced but third dam Fleur Royale (by Mill Reef) won the Group 2 Pretty Polly Stakes and was runner up in the Irish Oaks. She is also the dam of Casey Tibbs (by Sadlers’ Wells) who found a berth at stud in South Africa.  Fourth dam Sweet Mimosa (by Le Levanstall ex Feemoss) won the French Oaks and is a sister to outstanding stayers Le Moss and Levmoss (who also won the Arc).

Conclusion: Harold Wilson famously said that ‘a week is a long time in politics’. Well it seems it is also long enough to help prompt a significant shift in our thinking about stallions. Montjeu’s lack of success with fillies seemed hard to rationalise but now perhaps it could be seen as a statistical aberration and the achievement gap between his offspring of different genders may continue to narrow over time.

WADING (IRE) 2009 f b
Montjeu
(IRE) 1996		 Sadler’s
Wells (USA) 1981		 Northern
Dancer (CAN) 1961		 Nearctic
(USA) 1954
Natalma
(USA) 1957
Fairy
Bridge (USA) 1975		 Bold
Reason (USA) 1968
Special
(USA) 1969
Floripedes
(FR) 1985		 Top
Ville (IRE) 1976		 High
Top (IRE) 1969
Sega
Ville (USA) 1968
Toute
Cy (FR) 1979		 Tennyson
(FR) 1970
Adele
Toumignon (IRE) 1971
Cherry
Hinton (GB) 2004		 Green
Desert (USA) 1983		 Danzig
(USA) 1977		 Northern
Dancer (CAN) 1961
Pas
De Nom (USA) 1968
Foreign
Courier (USA) 1979		 Sir
Ivor (USA) 1965
Courtly
Dee (USA) 1968
Urban
Sea (USA) 1989		 Miswaki
(USA) 1978		 Mr
Prospector (USA) 1970
Hopespringseternal
(USA) 1971
Allegretta
(GB) 1978		 Lombard
(GER) 1967
Anatevka
(GER) 1969

Arc day 2011- A new French fashion?

The French have a reputation for being fashionable. Sunday was Prix de l’Arc day- Europe’s finest single days racing with seven Group 1 races. The results were a breath of fresh air and a delight to those people who love to see diversity amongst the stallion ranks. We have come to expect top class European racing to be dominated by the Danzig and Sadler’s Wells branches of the Northern Dancer line. On Sunday, these lines were eclipsed by a less fashionable branch of the Northern Dancer line and even more pleasingly, five of the other winners were not from the Northern Dancer line.

Nijinsky- a better Arc day than in 1970

The Nijinsky sireline had a big day on Sunday. Nijinsky famously lost his unbeaten record in the 1970 Arc to Sassafras. He subsequently sired one winner of the race in Lammtarra and two of his sons Green Dancer (sire of Suave Dancer) and Caerleon (sire of Marienbard) sired winners of Europe’s premier all-aged race.  The impressive victory of Danedream (f. by Lomitas ex Danedrop by Danehill) saw another victory for his sireline as Lomitas is a son of Nijinsky’s Irish and French St Leger winning son Niniski.  Alas Lomitas died last year so he will not benefit from this victory.

Another grandson of Nijinsky sired a big winner when Kasbah Bliss (g. by Kahyasi ex Marital Bliss by Double Bed) won the marathon Prix du Cadran . In addition Nijinksy’s son Royal Academy is the broodmare sire of Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere winner Dabirsim (c by Hat Trick ex Rumoured by Royal Academy). The cap off the day, Nijinsky’s grandson Generous was broodmare sire of Prix de L’Opera winner Nahrain (. by Selkirk eg Bahr by Generous). All in all it was a welcome reminder of the positive influence of the last triple crown winner.

Super Sunday Silence

Dabirsim’s win in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere was another reminder of the possibilities of the Sunday Silence line. It is mystifying to me that the major European studs have not acted to secure a truly top class son of Japan’s greatest ever sire to make available an alternative sireline.  The possibilities were already shown by Divine Light who sired Natagora winner of the Cheveley Park and 1000 Guineas.  Lanwades (in the UK)  stand Vita Rosa and Darley France stand Layman, but neither could be considered amongst the best of the Sunday Silence’s as racehorses.

Dream Ahead

Dream Ahead (c. by Diktat ex Land of Dreams by Cadeaux Genereux) won his fifth Group 1 when edging out Goldikova in the Prix de la Foret. It was subsequently announced that he will be retiring to Ballylinch Stud in County Kilkenny Ireland at the end of the season.  His sire Diktat is now in Spain but if properly priced Dream Ahead should prove popular. For people who care about these things it is significant that if you go back 22 generations you will find that Dream Ahead’s sire line traces to the Godolphin Arabian, so he represents a good chance to continue that line in Europe.

Tangerine Trees

Tangerine Trees (g. by Mind Games ex Easy to Imagine by Cozzene) was a somewhat fortuitous winner of the Prix de l’Abbaye as the fast finishing Sole Power looked to be the best horse on the day. Tangerine Trees represents another sireline that has fallen out of fashion namely the Forli line which was once so popular down around Ballydoyle. However the reason why Mind Games is unfashionable is that he was a truly dreadful stallion with terrible percentages.  Thankfully he is now retired from active service.

Elusive Kate- Can’t escape Mr P.

Elusive Kate (f. by Elusive Quality ex Gout de Terroir by Lemon Drop Kid), could hardly be considered unfashionable being a daughter of Elusive Quality who stands at 50,000 USD and who is a stallion who is popular on both sides of the Atlantic. Elusive Kate has Mr Prospector on both sides of the pedigree as Elusive Quality traces to Mr Pr via Gone West and Lemon Drop Kid is a son Kingmambo by Mr P.  The prominence of Mr Prospector is not nearly as pronounced in Europe as it is in the States.

Nahrain for Varian

Nahrain (f. by Selkirk ex Bahr by Generous) just defeated her half sister Announce (f. by Selkirk ex Hachita by Gone West) in the Prix de L’Opera. In winning she gave her trainer Roger Varian the first of what are likely to be many Group 1 wins. The veteran Selkirk is from the Sharpen Up line and has now sired 14 Group 1 winners, 10 of which are fillies and again although he could never be called unfashionable he perhaps never got the credit he deserved.

Conclusions

Sunday’s results do not mark the end of the domination of Europe by the Sadler’s Wells and Danzig lines.  However it is a useful reminder to European breeders and buyers that there are a lot more ways of breeding a top class racehorse than through the ultra fashionable sire lines. As the French might say vive la difference!

Predicting Sales Returns

The Keeneland sales are critical to the US bloodstock industry. When analysing the sales, industry experts often focus on the strength of the buying bench which depends on the presence or otherwise of European, Arab, Japanese and domestic buyers. The experts debate the impact of variables such as changes to exchange rates or tax charges, the size and perceived quality of the catalogue, or tinkering with the sales structure through select sessions. The presence of the offspring of star stallions or fashionable stallions may also be invoked as a way of explaining the likely sales outcome. These factors are real and do have an impact but the best indicator currently available is much more straightforward-The Dow Jones Index. I consider the issue in detail in the September edition of International Thoroughbred magazine. To read the article click here

The importance of birth dates

Studies have shown that a horses birth date has only a marginal impact on its subsequent racing performance. It follows that it should therefore be of little relevance to the sales price achieved.  I put this assumption to the test in this month’s International Thoroughbred magazine.  To read the article follow the link http://issuu.com/international_thoroughbred/docs/aug_issuu and go to pages 44-46