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What Goes Up? Recession Busters

Chicken Little aka Chicken Licken wasn’t wrong, she was just ahead of her time. Nowadays it seems that the sky really is falling down as asset values crash around the world. Stallion fees are understandably under pressure as the recent sales season showed falls in the grosses, averages, and medians. However there are still some stallions bucking the trend, who’s fees for 2009 are showing increases on 2008. So in the words of Bugs Bunny “Whats up doc?”

Starting with Coolmore- Montjeu and Danehill Dancer are both now listed as private from last years fees of €125,000 and €115,000. Both sires had good years with Montjeu adding another classic winning colt in Irish Derby winner Frozen Fire and the very impressive Grand Prix de Paris winner Montmartre. His older horses included Group 2 winners Honolulu and MacArthur and the Autumn saw him reveal some promising 2 year olds including a one-two in the final Group One of the Season at Saint Cloud with Fame and Glory and Drumbeat, alongside the Royal Lodge success of Jukebox Jury who also finished second in the Racingpost Trophy. Danehill Dancer had a great year in Ireland where his star turns were Mastercraftsman who won the Phoenix and National Stakes as well as Again who won the Moyglare. These had a large back up cast including Ice Queen who  was just touched off in the Irish Oaks, Caribbean Sunset who was narrowly beaten in the Irish 1000 Guineas and Westphalia who won the Group 2 Champagne Stakes. Both stallions have the offspring of better books of mares on the way and normally you would say that the fee hikes could be justified but in the current environment it is more questionable.  In the case of Danehill Dancer I would contrast his situation with that of Pivotal who sired Guineas winners in three countries but saw his fee cut from £85000 to £65000- and Danehill Dancer whilst a good sire is no Pivotal. It is possible, indeed probable that the decision to list the fees as private is just the famed Coolmore spin machine at work. I strongly suspect that any breeder prepared who offered last years fees for either Danehill Dancer or Montjeu would have no problem getting an appointment for his mare. The other Coolmore giant is Galileo and his fee is advertised as private in 2009, the same situation as 2008.  Galileo had a fantastic year with his three year olds New Approach and Lush Lashes, older horses Soldier of Fortune and Red Rocks and promising two year olds Kite Wood, Cuis Ghaire and Rip Van Winkle. Although there is no advertised change in his fee, with the retirement of Sadler’s Wells he is probably ‘more private’ now than he was before!

Darley have raised two of their stallions. Kheleyf has gone from €5000 to €12000 and Exceed and Excel was raised from €10000 to £12000. It’s easy to understand these increases given the success of both stallions with their two year olds, finishing first and second with 27 and 21 individual winners respectively, including a respectable number of stakes performers.

The Irish National Stud also had a good year with its first season sires. Elusive City was responsible for Group winners Elusive Wave and Soul City and it was no harm that Soul City also won the Goffs million. The success of Raven’s Pass, another son of Elusive Quality was also timely. His fee has now moved from €8000 to €12500 which seems pricey to me. Indian Haven also had two Group winners in Ashram and Aspen Darlin and has fee has increased slightly from €6000 to €7500. I would expect his progeny to train on well and I think he is represents very good value and could be the one to replicate the success enjoyed his sire Indian Ridge and grandsire Ahonoora at the Irish National Stud.

Amongst the second season sires Dalakhani was the star. Two classic winners in Moonstone and Conduit were backed up by Group 2 winners Centennial and Democrate and four other stakes winners. His results justify an increase from €40000 to €50000.

Nayef matched Dalakhani by siring two Group 1 winners in Lady Marian and Tamayuz. Like Dalakhani he is free from Northern Dancer and he represents very good value at his new fee of £15000 up from £10000 in 2008.

Bizarrely Shadwell also increased the fee for Sakhee from £10000 to £12000. He had a few useful performers in Samuel and the Italian Permesso who was twice Group 1 placed but it hardly constituted a successful season. I certainly can’t see the rationale behind this increase.

Juddmonte have not increased any of their fees, nor have Rathbarry or Lanwades, although Lanwades would have been forgiven had they given Hernando an increase after the exploits of Look Here and Casual Conquest.

 The National Stud raised Bahamian Bounty from £9000 to £10000. This was surprising as although he had plenty of winners he had no Group winners all year and his best performer was Gallagher who finished runner up in the Prix Morny. Time will tell whether this decision was brave or foolhardy, but I found it surprising.

The brevity of the above list tells you all that you need to know about the current state of the market.  Confidence is in short supply but no doubt commercial breeders are hoping that when it comes to selling the outcome of their 2009 matings that the financial outlook will be a lot rosier. I hope they will be proved right but I’m always reminded of the saying “anyone who wants to make a small fortune out of horses, needs to start with a big fortune”……..

Arc Weekend-winners and losers

With 7 Group Ones and four Group 2’s spread over the Saturday and Sunday, Arc weekend is as good as it gets in Europe. All age groups, all distances all sexes are catered for with championship honours up for grabs. This years results threw up a lot of surprises with plenty of items to debate.

A good weekend for

 1. French trainers- only two races went to overseas trainers with Paco Boy winning for Richard Hannon and Lady Marian for Germany. It probably emphasises that Arc weekend is the ultimate target for many French trained horses whereas it is often coming at the end of a long hard season for Irish and British trained horses who had peaked earlier in the summer

2. Juddmonte. A stellar weekend for Juddmonte stallions with Zamindar’s daughter Zarkava’s win in the Arc reinforcing her superstar status. For good measure Beat Hollow emerged from the doldrums with Proportional putting up a very impressive performance in the Prix Marcel Boussac to give him his first Group One winner. The jam on top was provided when Naaqoos won the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere giving Oasis Dream his first Group One winner.

3. The Aga Khan’s methods. Zarkava represents a triumph for the Aga Khans belief in certain families. It is remarkable that her 10th dam is his grandfathers foundation mare Mumtaz Mahal and her fifth dam is Oaks and Guineas winner Petite Etoile a filly Lester Piggott regards as the best he ever rode. Despite a number of moderate non-entities since Petite Etoile the Aga Khan never loses faith in his families and got his just reward with a great performance from the best filly since Miesque.

4. Dyhim Diamond. The unherealded Dyhim Diamond had a sparkling weekend that emphasised his versatility. Firstly five year old Bannaby won the 20 furlongs Prix de Cadran defeating Yeats and on Sunday Milanais came within a neck of winning the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. Dyhim Diamond was a son of Night Shift who never won above Group 3 level, but previously gave notice of his ability to upgrade his mares with the exploits of Prix Jean Prat winner Turtle Bowl.  Dyhim Diamond stood in France for €2000 at Haras de la Tuilerie, but is now plying his trade in Haras de Ulzama in Spain. This weekends results might see efforts to repatriate him to France.

5. Nayef. Lady Marian’s win in the Prix de l’Opera caps  a fine year for the Shadwell stallion who has emerged as an important sire as earlier highlighted by Tamayuz’s Group 1 double and Spacious runner-up slot in the 1000 Guineas. His fee has been increased to £15000 for next year but that still represents tremendous value.

6. Desert Style.  Paco Boy provided Desert Style with his second Prix de la Foret winner in three years, following in the hoofprints of Caradak. He has always been an inconsistent sire but is well capable of getting a top class performer such as Mandesha and Bachir. At a fee of €12,000 he could no longer be considered cheap but this was a nice reminder of his ability.

Disappointing weekend

1. Coolmore. Amazingly Peintre Celebre’s son Trincot’s victory in the Group 2 Prix Dollar was the only pattern success for a Coolmore stallion at the weekend.

2. Ballydoyle/Aidan O’Brien. Before his horses left Tipperary Aidan O’Brien would have expected at least two Group One wins with hopes of adding another one or two. He left with none after odds-on defeats for Yeats and Mastercraftsman and disappointing runs by Duke of Marmalade and Moonstone. Only Soldier of Fortune performed with credit.  His odds of reaching the record of 26 Group ones in a season lengthened after the weekend.

3. Gallic Farce: The failure of Fleeting Spirit’s stalls to fully open in the Prix de l’Abbaye led to a false start. Unfortunately a number of jockeys didn’t notice the false start flag and Hungarian superstar Overdose ran flat out for the five furlongs ‘winning’ the race in a time just outside the course record.  Had he triumphed it would have been a real fairytale success for an unwanted son of Starborough who cost just £2000

Compton Place for Pace

Compton Place is after a fantastic few weeks. On the 19th July the six year old Intrepid Jack won the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes over 6 furlongs. On the 1st August the two year old Prolific won the Group 2 Richmond Stakes and then to cap it all on the 22nd August another 6 year old Borderlescott won the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes (following in the footsteps of his grandsire Ahonoora) when the race was run at Newmarket after York was cancelled. Borderlescotts victory was his first ever Group win and was Compton Place’s first ever Group One victory. Compton Place has earned a reputation as a good sire of tough speedy horses and is good value at his current fee of £7500.

Racecourse Career:

Compton Place’s racecourse career is really all about one race the 1997 July Cup. He triumphed at 50-1 defeating Royal Applause. As his price suggests this was a massive improvement on his previous form although at 2 he did finish runner up in the Gimcrack and the Flying Childers. In his previous run he had been well beaten in the King’s Stand and he must be one of the few Group One winners about which the trainer had to explain the improvement in form! The rest of his career was a big disappointment, his final run at three was in the Nunthorpe but he missed the kick and only beat one horse home. Kept in training at four he ran three times but finished close to last on all his runs including when bidding for a repeat in the July Cup.

Stud Career.

The below table taken from his home stud (http://www.whitsburymanorstud.co.uk/) shows an analysis of Compton Place first 6 crops.  His foal sizes are relatively small in the modern era dropping to a mere 39 recorded foals in 2002.  Despite his current success it it refreshing that it is advertised that his books are restricted to 100 mares.  It is impressive to note his very large percentage of runners to foals which indicates that he is siring sound animals and another intriguing stat I came across was in relation to the number of lifetime runs per runner (13) which reinforced the soundness of his offspring. His percentage of stakes winners at around 3% is not impressive but considering the quality of mares it is not too disappointing. A cursory analysis of the winning distances of his offspring tells you at a glance all you need to know about the distance preference of his offspring with 5 furlong and 6 furlong races dominating in terms of wins and runs.  He was viewed by breeders as a source of cheap speed and he has delivered them just that.  HIs previous best progeny include Godfrey Street who went one better than Compton Place and won the Flying Childers (defeating his paternal half brother Hunter Street), Passified who is Grade 2 winner and Grade 1 placed in the US, Boogie Street who was only a listed winner but came within a head of winning a Kings Stand, multiple stakes winners Angus Newz and . Many of his better runners including Boogie Street, Godfrey Street and Prolific were trained by Richard Hannon who is an enthusiastic supporter of the stallion and his been well rewarded for his foresight. There are no obvious nicks when looking at the pedigrees of Compton Place’s previous stakes winners although he has two out of Night Shift mares in Passified and Italian Group 3 winner Champion Place. Intrepid Jack is out a Primo Dominie mare, Prolific out of Bahamian Bounty mare, Judd Street out of a College Chapel mare, Boogie Street out of a Distant Relative mare and Godfrey Street who is out a Caerleon mare. Incidentally Caerleon also appears in the third generation of Prolific.

Indian Ridge as a Sire of Sires

Compton Place’s sire Indian Ridge was an unexpected success at stud rising from humble beginnings to be the star in the Irish National Stud roster with two Breeders Cup mile winners in Ridgewood Pearl and Domedriver along with champion sprinter Namid, Irish Guineas winner Indian Haven, National Stakes winner and Irish Derby runner-up Definite Article and dual group one winner Indian Ink. Indian Ridge has mixed results as a sire of sires. Definite Article was atypical of the best Indian Ridges in his aptitude for middle distances and at stud he followed suit by siring an outstanding stayer in Vinnie Roe, who is himself now at stud. Despite or more likely because of the success of Vinnie Roe, Definite Article is now covering large books as a dual purpose sire. Ridgewood Ben ( a brother to Ridgewood Peal) was disappointing even for a cheap sire and the likes of Fumo Di Londra , Handsome Ridge, Indian Rocket and Tumbleweed Ridge also failed to sire anything of note from admittedly poor quality mares.  Namid started promisingly with his first crop and sires lots of winners but needs a few top class horses if he is to justify his reported fee of €10000. Domedriver received a quality book of mares but although his oldest progeny are still only three, results to date are very disappointing and he has left Lanwades for France. Munir has a quality pedigree as a son of Al Bahatri but also has failed to deliver any offspring of note. Thus it is fair to rank Compton Place as the best son of Indian Ridge currently at stud but that could change quickly if Sleeping Indian or Indian Haven start to deliver with their large initial crops.

Borderlescott’s pedigree:

It is a rarity nowadays to find a pedigree devoid of Northern Dancer or Mr Prospector but Borderlescott is one of those rarities. His dam Jeewan was a 12 furlong winner as a three year old at Catterick, and this was her sole success in seven outings for Harry Thompson Jones. She was a daughter of Touching Wood (also trained by Jones) who was runner up to Golden Fleece in the Derby but notched a classic double in the Irish and English St Legers. He spent only two seasons at stud in England befor being sold to New Zealand. His most notable offspring was Ascot Gold Cup winner Ashal (also trained by Jones) and it is likely Borderlescotts breeders were hoping to inject some speed into the pedigree. Jeewan was previously the dam of 4 winners but none of them displayed stakes class. They did however display toughness and longevity with Woodbury (by Woodborough) running 58 times from the age of 2-6 and she registered 6 wins and 9 places, Harry Browne by Al Hareb ran 26 times winning 5 times and Patricia Philomena by Prince of Birds ran 37 times winning on 4 occasions. The moderate sires she visited Woodborough, Al Hareb, Prince of Birds, Gallic League, Classic Music and Primo Dominie are appropriate given her own pedigree and moderate racecourse performance and the 13000 guineas given for Borderlescott as a yearling at Doncaster must have seemed a fair price at the time. It is now looking like a real bargain and there could be more to come from this tough, progressive horse.

Crop Foaled

 

 Live Foals

 

Runners

 

Winners

 

Wins

 

SW

 

GW

 

2000

 

68

 

61

 

41

 

166

 

2

 

1

 

2001

 

47

 

36

 

20

 

65

 

3

 

0

 

2002

 

39

 

32

 

23

 

75

 

2

 

1

 

2003

 

55

 

44

 

21

 

61

 

4

 

3

 

2004

 

72

 

58

 

33

 

75

 

1

 

1

 

2005

 

71

 

50

 

15

 

21

 

0

 

0

 

First 6 crops

 

352

 

281

 

153

 

463

 

12

 

6

 

 

 

BORDERLESCOTT (GB) 2002 g b
Compton Place (GB) 1994 Indian Ridge (IRE) 1985 Ahonoora (GB) 1975 Lorenzaccio (IRE) 1965
Helen Nichols (GB) 1966
Hillbrow (GB) 1975 Swing Easy (USA) 1968
Golden City (GB) 1970
Nosey (IRE) 1981 Nebbiolo (GB) 1974 Yellow God (GB) 1967
Novara (GER) 1965
Little Cynthia (IRE) 1974 Wolver Hollow (GB) 1964
Fazilka (IRE) 1965
Jeewan (IRE) 1985 Touching Wood (USA) 1979 Roberto (USA) 1969 Hail To Reason (USA) 1958
Bramalea (USA) 1959
Mandera (USA) 1970 Vaguely Noble (GB) 1965
Foolish One (USA) 1957
Adeebah (USA) 1980 Damascus (USA) 1964 Sword Dancer (USA) 1956
Kerala (USA) 1958
Transylvania (USA) 1969 Bold Ruler (USA) 1954
Cascade 2nd (USA) 1951

 

Who likes it heavy?

I blame the Chinese for the ‘Summer’ we just endured. Once they stopped burning all that coal in an effort to clean up Beijing’s polluted air for the Olympics they somehow changed the Irish climate for the worse.  Also I’ve developed a new theory on the extinction of the dinosaurs which I suspect was caused by a Summer like this back in 65million BC. This caused all the dinosaurs to drown or to drown themselves due to the unrelenting misery of it all. Anyway given the circumstance I thought it might be opportune to look at those sires whose offspring do best when the ground is heavy. 

Off the top of my head I would have named the best heavy ground sires as Efisio, Pivotal, Diktat and Sadler’s Wells & sons.  I can’t quantify this belief but they are the sires that I’ve noticed seem to do well when the going is heavy.  As an exercise I looked through every Group One race in Ireland, the UK and France over the past five years in which the going description included the word heavy. This amounted to only 12 races and the winners and details are shown below.  The findings threw up a few surprises. Firstly I wouldn’t have guessed that Danehill would have been responsible for a quarter of the wins, but he is via Westerner’s two wins in the Prix Royal Oak and Peeping Fawns win in the Irish Oaks. However as each of these horses were multiple Group one winners, who succeeded at the top level on all sorts of going it is fair to conclude that heavy ground was not needed for them to succeed. Peeping Fawn and Westerner are good examples of the maxim that good horses will win on any ground.

The Sadler’s Wells tribe are the predominate group. Sadler’s Wells himself appears as sire of Linda’s Lad who won the marathon Criterium de Saint-Cloud as a two year old. It was a weak renewal of the race and it proved his sole success at the top level. He did add a Lingfield Derby trial before being beaten about 10 lengths in Sir Percy’s derby which is a fair indicator of his ability. Sadler’s Wells is also the broodmare sire of Peeping Fawn. Two of his sons are responsible for two winners each. Montjeu is sire of Authorized who won the Racing Post trophy at two and Scorpion who won the St Leger in heavy going. In both cases these horses achieved Group one success on better ground , most significantly Authorized in the Derby and Scorpion who broke a track record in the Grand Prix de Paris. Again these were quality horses who were versatile as to going requirements like Montjeu himself who won the Arc on heavy ground.

Galileo only ran once on heavy ground in his maiden which he won by fourteen lengths. He is the sire of two heavy ground, wide margin classic winners in Soldier of Fortune and Nightime. Soldier of Fortune has since followed up at four in a Coronation Cup on good ground but Nightime never won again and a look at her career seemed to indicate that she needed lots of cut to show her best. The 4 others on the list are a slightly surprising bunch.  There are 2 Mr Prospector line horses in Saoirse Abu a great grand daughter by Mr Greeley and Palace Episode a grandson by Machiavellian. Saoirse Abu defeated Henrythenavigator in the Phoenix Stakes but she also won a Moyglare defeating Listen and was a close third in this years 1000 Guineas. Heavy ground was not necessary for her.  Palace Episode won the Racing Post trophy and on the strength of that was sold to Godolphin. He has never won since and is now running on firm ground in the US.  Its hard to say definitively whether he needed heavy ground or if his lack of subsequent success is due to joining Godolphin, becoming another casualty of the big blue hole.

 Araafa caused a shock when he beat George Washington in the Irish Guineas but showed his ground versatility by following up in the St James Palace on good to firm. Interestingly he has a connection with Pivotal as his dam is a full sister to Pivotal.

The final horse on the list is Reverence who won the Haydock sprint cup. He also previously won the Nunthorpe on soft ground and is one of the few horses on the list who really needed soft ground to perform. On pedigree its hard to see where this affinity comes from- Mark of Esteem never ran on ground worse than good and his dam Imperial Bailiwick who was a tough precocious sprinter who won a Flying Childers but didn’t demonstrate a pronounced going preference. It could be down to his particular confirmation.

 Conclusion.  With such a small sample you can’t be definitive about things. Good horses can handle any going.   Sadler’s Wells and his sons handle heavy ground and make up a big part of the sample. Danehill’s better offspring are also versatile as to going. The others on the list are perhaps good examples of why its important not to be too dogmatic when it comes to breeding. Some of the other sires I mentioned such as Efisio and Diktat are hardly regular sires of Group one winners so it is no surprise that they don’t feature in the small sample above. However it is worth keeping an eye on their runners in bottomless ground as they can often surprise at big prices.

 

Horse

 

 

Sire

 

 

Dam

 

 

Dam Sire

 

 

Race

 

 

Saoirse Abu

 

 

Mr Greeley

 

 

Out too late

 

 

future storm

 

 

2007 National Stakes

 

 

Peeping Fawn

 

 

danehill

 

 

maryinsky

 

 

sadler’s wells

 

 

2007 Irish Oaks

 

 

Soldier of Fortune

 

 

galileo

 

 

affianced

 

 

erins isle

 

 

2007 Irish Derby

 

 

Nightime

 

 

galileo

 

 

caumhsinaun

 

 

indian ridge

 

 

2006 Irish Guineas

 

 

Araafa

 

 

mull of kintyre

 

 

resurgence

 

 

polar falcon

 

 

2006 Irish Guineas

 

 

Authorized

 

 

montjeu

 

 

funsie

 

 

saumarez

 

 

2006 Racing Post Trophy

 

 

Reverence

 

 

mark of esteem

 

 

imperial bailiwick

 

 

imperial frontier

 

 

2006 Haydock sprint cup

 

 

Palace Episode

 

 

machiavellian

 

 

palace weekend

 

 

seattle dancer

 

 

2005 racing post trophy

 

 

Scorpion

 

 

montjeu

 

 

ardmelody

 

 

law society

 

 

2005 St Leger

 

 

Linda’s lad

 

 

sadler’s wells

 

 

colza

 

 

alleged

 

 

2005 Crit. Saint Cloud

 

 

Westerner

 

 

danehill

 

 

walensee

 

 

troy

 

 

2004 prix royal oak

 

 

Westerner

 

 

danehill

 

 

walensee

 

 

troy

 

 

2003 prix royal oak

 

 

Sires in Form- Mere Coincidence?

There is a popular thread on the betfair breeding forum regarding ‘sires in form’.  Forumites diligently monitor and report upon those sires who are having the most winners in a particular month. Thus far in July Royal Applause has had 18 winners, ahead of Bahamian Bounty and Kheleyf. Every month seems to see different sires go through hot streaks and then revert back to normality. So is there an explanation for these streaks, can they be predicted and can punters profit from them?

Possible Explanations:

1.The most likely explanation for these winning streaks is simply that they are random events. If you toss a coin thousands of times you would expect to regularly get sequences of successive heads or tails. Clusters are to be expected in any random pattern. Sires suddenly producing lots of winners is just a random clustering event that cannot be predicted.

2. Ground Conditions. Many stallions produce offspring with definite going preferences. If we have an unusually wet summer and the ground is heavy then it would be no surprise to see a sire like Efisio sire lots of winners. Similar logic would apply to firm ground stallions. Interestingly if ground conditions were the explanation then we would expect to see fewer such ‘hot streaks’ on the all-weather where ground is not as variable.

3. Linked to trainer form. Many trainers have favourite stallions and will have a disproportionate number of the offspring of those horses in their stables. Aidan O’Briens stable is full of Montjeu’s Galileo’s and Danehill Dancers. When Ballydoyle goes through a purple patch then Montjeu, Galileo and  Danehill Dancer have lots of winners. Michael Stoute trains for Cheveley Park and he would have lots of Pivotals and Mediceans and other trainers also have there favourites usually dictated by budget. When the stable is in form then the sires popular with that trainer would be also expected to have plenty of winners.

4. Linked to opportunity. If a sire happens to do well with stayers and there are lots of staying races during a period then it is logical he will do better during that time. Similarly a sire whose two year olds need at least a mile to be seen to best effect won’t get many two year old winners before the Autumn. What appears to be a sire going through a ‘hot streak’ is in fact simply that his offspring are finally getting an opportunity to run at their optimum trips.

5. Trainer perceptions. One Cool Cat had a great start with his two year olds from March-June. Trainers expected his offspring to be precocious and accordingly had them ready to run early in the season. Conversely few trainers had their Sulamani two year olds ready to go early in the season because naturally trainers would have viewed them more as needing time. The trainers perceptions determined the training of the horses. These perceptions meant that One Cool Cats offspring were ready to run and mop up the early season two year old races which are typically somewhat easier to win.

6. Time of Year. It was famously said of the offspring of Ribot that they were better with ‘the sun on their backs’ and it is likely that due to maturation issues some sires have offspring that are better earlier or later in the year. Springtime could see winning streaks for sires who sire precocious two year olds and conversely for sires whose offspring improve with age. The logic here is that the horses would be having their first runs of the new season but they would still be running off ratings achieved when they were too immature to show their full potential.

Conclusion

It is impossible to be definitive as to the reasons why sires seem to undergo sudden hot streaks. I think there is some truth in all of the above explanations. Accordingly I propose a new all-embracing theory that I modestly call Sheahan’s Theory.

6. All of the above-cycles and the handicapper. In statistics it is believed that over time everything regresses to the mean. A typical stallions offspring might win 15% of the races in which they run. If that sire goes through a ‘hot streak’ in which his offspring win 25% of their races in a month, it is still likely that the average at the end of the year or period under review will be close to the long term average.  However within racing there is another factor which quickly ends winning streaks namely the work of the handicapper and of fixed penalties. If a horse wins he will be penalised by the handicapper and will have to improve to win again. If lots of two year olds are winning maidens, next time out they will find themselves competing in higher class conditions or stakes races or alternatively carrying a lot of weight in nurseries. Unless the horse has improved they will not win next time out and indeed they will probably need a few unsuccessful runs before dropped by the handicapper back to a winnable mark.  A random cluster of wins by the offspring of a stallion could be followed by a lull when all of these horses ran next time out under penalties  until the horses were dropped by the handicapper. It is then possible for them all to come good again in a cluster later in the year. These factors would be reinforced by ground/trainer or opportunity issues. For example imagine the offspring of stallion X are best as three year olds with firm ground over trips in excess of 12 furlongs. When they ran early in their three year old days they would probably be competing over 8-10 furlongs. When stepped up in trip we would expect more of them to win and this could be amplified by suitable ground. This period might be their hot winning streak. If it was a wet summer they would be inconvenienced and they would also be running under penalties after the hot streak. We could expect many to struggle to win over their next few runs and the handicapper would drop them again. Come late August the combined effect of the drop by the handicapper and perhaps an improvement in going could see another hot streak. In racing nothing is as random as it seems….

 

 

 

 

Bastille Day- Mon Dieu it’s Montjeu again…..

Bastille Day is a France’s national day. It is very appropriate that the winner of the Grand Prix de Paris was called after Montmartre, a famous district in Paris and represents some of the best of French breeding endeavours. Montmartre races in the colours of the Aga Khan and is part of the Jean-Luc Lagardère package that he purchased on the death of the former French racing supremo. Inevitably whenever one talks about Jean-Luc Lagardère one name dominates that of Linamix and he is the broodmare sire of Montmartre. Montmartre’s dam Artistique was lightly raced, but she become one of the almost 40 Group winners sired by the dominant grey when she finished her career with a win in the Group 3 Prix Berteux at Chantilly over 15 furlongs. Montmartre is her fourth foal and her third winner.  Montmartre’s grand-dam Armarama was a high class filly who gained her finest hour winning a substandard renewal of the Ribbesdale Stakes.  There is further quality in the pedigree as she was a half sister to a superstar in Kalaglow who won a King George and Eclipse.

As for Montjeu, his season has sparked to life in the last few weeks with two new Group One winners in the past two weeks in the shape of Irish Derby winner Frozen Fire and now Montmartre.  Montmartre becomes his second winner of the Grand Prix de Paris as Scorpion also triumphed in the 2005 renewal. Montmartre looked very impressive and it isn’t hard to see him involved in the finish of this years Prix de l’Arc for which he has been installed as the new favourite.

 

MONTMARTRE (FR) 2005 c gr
Montjeu
(IRE) 1996		 Sadler’s
Wells (USA) 1981		 Northern
Dancer (CAN) 1961		 Nearctic
(USA) 1954
Natalma
(USA) 1957
Fairy
Bridge (USA) 1975		 Bold
Reason (USA) 1968
Special
(USA) 1969
Floripedes
(FR) 1985		 Top
Ville (IRE) 1976		 High
Top (IRE) 1969
Sega
Ville (USA) 1968
Toute
Cy (FR) 1979		 Tennyson
(FR) 1955
Adele
Toumignon (IRE) 1971
Artistique
(IRE) 1996		 Linamix
(FR) 1987		 Mendez
(FR) 1981		 Bellypha
(IRE) 1976
Miss
Carina (FR) 1975
Lunadix
(FR) 1972		 Breton
(GB) 1967
Lutine
(GB) 1966
Armarama
(GB) 1989		 Persian
Bold (IRE) 1975		 Bold
Lad (IRE) 1964
Relkarunner
(GB) 1968
Rossitor
(GB) 1970		 Pall
Mall (GB) 1948
Sonia
(GB) 1965

 

Sunday with a difference

Sunday saw the running of the Irish Oaks and the Prix Jean Prat. The results credited two stallions with Group One winners from their first crops and refreshingly both stallions are free from Northern Dancer. Moonstone was still a maiden going into the Irish Oaks, but after finishing runner-up in the Epsom Oaks she was probably the highest rated maiden in training.  She had cost 700000 guineas at Tattersalls so it is no surprise that her pedigree lacks nothing. The most obvious credential is that she is a three part sister to L’Ancresse who was trained by Roger Charlton at two but ended up with Aidan O’Brien at three. L’Ancresse ran 9 times as a three year old. She won just once in a Listed race, but she had some impressive placings including when she finished second to Vintage Tipple in the Irish Oaks and her final run when she finished second to Islington in the Breeders Cup. That run saw her rated champion three year old filly. Moonstone’s third dam Arctique Royale was also a classic winner at the Curragh when she won the 1981 Irish 1000 Guineas for Kevin Prendergast. Further back this is a family that provided success to Coomore through Scorpion who shares a fourth dam with Moonstone in Arctic Melody a winner of the Musidora stakes and the Athasi Stakes. This is also the family of Ardross.  It was a good Oaks for Dalakhani who also sired the fourth home in Chinese White. His fillies have proved popular at the sales as owners see him as ready made replacement for his sire Darshaan who has compiled a very impressive reputation as a broodmare sire and one who nicked very well with Sadler’s Wells and his sons. It is probably an odds-on shot that Moonstone will be sent to either Galileo or Montjeu when she retires to the paddocks.

Tamayuz already had three victories to his name including a Group 3, however he was on something of a redemption mission having disappointed in the French Guineas. And he certainly redeemed himself. This year saw the best field assembled in the Prix Jean Prat for many a year and Tamayuz was impressive in beating the held up Ravens Pass and Rio de Le Plata. The winning distance was one and a half lengths which interestingly was double the distance by which Henrythenavigator defeated Ravens Pass. It will be interesting to see him take on Henrythenavigator. Tamayuz never passed through the sales ring but he certainly would have been demand as his dams side is dripping under the weight of black type. His own dam Al Ishq cost 280000 Ir guineas but won only one minor race. However her second dam Allez les trois is dam of a French Derby winner in Anabaa Blue, whereas third dam Allegretta is the dam of an Arc winner in Urban Sea who is now almost more famous as dam of Galileo. For good measure she is also dam of other Group 1 winers in  Black Sam Bellamy and My Typhoon as well as group winners in All too beautiful and Urban Ocean. Incidentally her two year old colt by Green Desert Sea the Stars was a promising fourth in the first race maiden at the Curragh.  Allegretta is also dam of Guineas winner Kings Best and this family is amongst the most succesful in the modern era. Nayef came close to a classic success earlier in the year when Spacious finished runner up in the 1000 Guineas and Shadwell will have no trouble in filling his book at a bargain fee of £10000.

With breeders so fickle and with the demand for immediate success these Group One successes will be warmly welcomed by the Aga Khan and by Shadwell.  Both can now point to promising young stallions capable of delivering quality horses and almost just as importantly they are stallions free from Northern Dancer who have delivered success with mares from his line. European breeding needs these stallions.

TAMAYUZ (GB) 2005 c ch
Nayef
(USA) 1998		 Gulch
(USA) 1984		 Mr
Prospector (USA) 1970		 Raise
A Native (USA) 1961
Gold
Digger (USA) 1962
Jameela
(USA) 1976		 Rambunctious
(USA) 1960
Asbury
Mary (USA) 1969
Height
Of Fashion (FR) 1979		 Bustino
(GB) 1971		 Busted
(GB) 1963
Ship
Yard (GB) 1963
Highclere
(GB) 1971		 Queen’s
Hussar (GB) 1960
Highlight
(GB) 1958
Al
Ishq (FR) 1997		 Nureyev
(USA) 1977		 Northern
Dancer (CAN) 1961		 Nearctic
(USA) 1954
Natalma
(USA) 1957
Special
(USA) 1969		 Forli
(ARG) 1963
Thong
(USA) 1964
Allez
Les Trois (USA) 1991		 Riverman
(USA) 1969		 Never
Bend (USA) 1960
River
Lady (USA) 1963
Allegretta
(GB) 1978		 Lombard
(GER) 1967
Anatevka
(GER) 1969

 

MOONSTONE (GB) 2005 f b
Dalakhani
(IRE) 2000		 Darshaan
(GB) 1981		 Shirley
Heights (GB) 1975		 Mill
Reef (USA) 1968
Hardiemma
(GB) 1969
Delsy
(FR) 1972		 Abdos
(FR) 1959
Kelty
(FR) 1965
Daltawa
(IRE) 1989		 Miswaki
(USA) 1978		 Mr
Prospector (USA) 1970
Hopespringseternal
(USA) 1971
Damana
(FR) 1981		 Crystal
Palace (FR) 1974
Denia
(FR) 1973
Solo
De Lune (IRE) 1990		 Law
Society (USA) 1982		 Alleged
(USA) 1974		 Hoist
The Flag (USA) 1968
Princess
Pout (USA) 1966
Bold
Bikini (USA) 1969		 Boldnesian
(USA) 1963
Ran-tan
(USA) 1960
Truly
Special (IRE) 1985		 Caerleon
(USA) 1980		 Nijinsky
(CAN) 1967
Foreseer
(USA) 1969
Arctique
Royale (IRE) 1978		 Royal
And Regal (USA) 1970
Arctic
Melody (GB) 1962