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  • Live fast,die young, leave a good looking crop?

    In this months international thoroughbred magazine I examined the impact of death on the values of his final crops. The full text is shown below:

    Art collectors have been known to pop open the champagne on hearing of the death of an artist. The reason is not extreme misanthropy, but rather the likely increase in the value of their collections. Values for art, bloodstock or any other commodity are supposedly set at the interface of supply and demand. Death sees an end to supply, so economic theory would predict an increase in values. With this in mind I thought it would be interesting to see whether stallion mortality offers opportunity for profit within the bloodstock world. Do buyers pay a premium for stock of the recently deceased and is there a “death effect” that could be exploited by pinhookers or agents?

    Methodology:

    In attempting to quantify if there is an upsurge in prices, I needed to compare the prices in the years after death with the prices just prior to death. To do this I looked at their final five year’s yearling prices and expressed each year’s sales average as a percentage of that five year average. For example if a stallions sales average was €10,000 in 2011, €15,000 in 2010, €8,000 in 2009, 15,000 in 2008 and €12,000 in 2007, then the average for the five year period is €12,000 and the 2011 result is 83% of the five year average (€10,000/€12,000) with the 2010 result being 125% of the five year average (€15,000/€12,000). By expressing the results in this way we are able to compare the effect for stallions who stood at very different stud fees.

    In selecting the stallions I looked at the list of leading sires from 2002 and selected those stallions who are now deceased and with no more yearlings to sell. Stallions with very small sales numbers were excluded as were stallions that were exported or standing outside of the UK and Ireland
    The stallions died at various years from the late nineties up to the beginning of this decade and varied in age and stud fee when they died.

    I also noted the year of birth of the stallion and the year in which his last crop were sold. This allowed for an assessment of whether the age of the stallion at the time of death had an impact on the result. Some caveats in relation to my findings include the fact that working from the leading sires list excluded less established or sires who had died very young and also my five year average figure was not a weighted average figure. The data-set generated is contained below

    Summary of Findings

    At first sight, the results do not support the hypothesis that there is a “death effect”. The final years sales results are only 95% of the five year average, the same figure as the penultimate year’s results. However this is an increase on the 87% figure for the third last crop sold, so you could argue that a slight bounce is evident.
    The average age of the sires when the last crop was conceived was 17.8 years. To check if this was significant I went and compared the results for those sires who were aged under or over 18 at the time their last crop was conceived against the overall averages. Although there were variations they were not particularly significant, so the age at death does not seem material to the findings. I found this to be surprising as it is well known that the quality of a stallions book declines with age (even though a stallions ability to pass on his ability is not diminished with age). However lesser mares will mean lesser offspring and accordingly lesser prices and I would have expected this age related effect to be more noticeable in the statistics.

    Conclusions

    I could discern no obvious grim reaper premium but given that there was a slight bounce in the final two years figures, it is possible that there was a marginal effect. Against that one could speculate that once a stallion dies, he is less likely to receive support from his owners who may have purchased stock in the past to boost sales figures. Similarly stud owners are less likely to spend money advertising the successes of the deceased than the living, so this again may have a slight negative impact on sales prices.
    It is not speculation to state that bloodstock is not art and horses don’t appreciate in value with age. However, bloodstock values are a matter of fashion and the last offspring of an old master have to compete with trendy first season sires for marketplace attention. I had expected an obituary notice to help in that regard but it seems that death cannot be described as a good career move for a stallion.

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  • Camelot- a new legend?

    Camelot has delivered Montjeu, his first Guineas winner. His success didn’t look likely until inside the final furlong, but in the end he was probably worth a little bit more than his official margin of a neck.  His success confirms the greatness of both Montjeu and Aidan O’Brien.

    Aidan O’Brien

    Camelot was Aidan O’Brien’s sixth 2000 Guineas winner, following King of Kings, Rock of Gibraltar, Footstepsinthesand, George Washington and Henrythenavigator. All of them were making their seasonal debuts and to me the ability to get a horse fully fit on the gallops is one of the hallmarks of a top trainer. The ability to learn from past mistakes and the knowledge that comes from training a lot of the members of the same family or offspring of the same sire can give trainers that extra edge. Aidan has trained more Montjeu’s than anybody else and he was quick to acknowledge that he made mistakes in prepping a previous Racing Post Trophy winner St Nicholas Abbey for the Guineas and he clearly didn’t repeat those mistakes with Camelot.

    Camelot’s pedigree

    Camelot cost 525,000 guineas at the 2010 Tattersalls October sales which made him the highest priced yearling by Montjeu sold that year.  For that sort of money you would expect him to be both handsome and especially well bred. His pedigree is undoubtedly high class although in truth it has lacked a superstar until Camelot, so we can assume he was a very taking physical specimen.

    Tarfah

    Camelot’s dam Tarfah was unraced at two, won three of her 4 starts including a listed handicap at Ascot as a three year old and then continued the good work by winning the listed Snowdrop stakes and the Group 3 Dahlia stakes in her first two runs at four. She failed to trouble the judge in the Windsor Forest run at York that year when Ascot was being redeveloped and was last seen disappointing in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes at Epsom in June 2006. She was reported as having burst a blood vessel that day and was not seen again on the track but retired with a very creditable record of 5 wins from 8 starts. Tarfah’s first foal was a filly by Galileo who cost 240,000 Guineas and named Ideal.  Trained by David Wachman, from her seven starts to date she won a 10 furlong maiden at Clonmel but is clearly a long way short of top class.

    Fickle

    Tarfah’s dam Fickle was trained by Michael Bell and ran five times as a three year old. She won her maiden at Brighton on her third start and won a listed race on her final start at Newcastle when she got the run of the race and sprung a surprise when winning at 20-1. With the black type secured it was presumably decided to retire her to the paddocks.  At stud Tarfah was by a long way her best offspring with her only other winner being the very modest Sistine who is closely related to Tarfah being by Dubai Destination (a son of Kingmambo).

    Fade

    Camelot’s third dam Fade was unraced but she proved a useful producer, leaving 8 winners from 8 runners including 3 other stakes performers besides Fickle in Faru (by Mtoto) , Birdie (by Alhaarth) and Fading Light (by King’s Best).

    One over Parr

    Camelot’s fourth dam One Over Parr (by Reform out of Seventh Bride) was very useful .  She won the Cheshire Oaks and the Lancashire Oaks, both Group 3’s and was a full sister to an Epsom Oaks winner in the 1974 winner Polygamy who gave Pat Eddery his first English Classic on the day that I was born ! As for the name One Over Parr history buffs might recall that Henry VIII’s sixth wife was called Catherine Parr hence with a dam of Seventh Bride, the name One Over Parr was very clever.

    Kincsem

    For those who really, really like to delve into a pedigree (and my thanks to the poster who notified me), Camelots 17th dam is no less than the Hungarian supermare Kincsem! Kincsem retired with a record of 54 wins from 54 starts and was dominant on the continent before crossing the Channel and claiming the Goodwood Cup in 1878. For a detailed account of her racing and broodmare career click here

    Nicks

    Tarfah is a daughter of Kingmambo and he has combined very well with daughters of  Montjeu’s sire Sadler’s Wells.  Kingmambo has sired Henrythenavigator, El Condor Pasa and Divine Proportions on this cross and his son King’s Best has produced Workforce out of a Sadler’s Wells mare.

    Conclusion

    Camelot is an unbeaten Group 1 winner at two and now a Guineas winner at three. The next logical target is the Derby and he is already an odds on shot in most books for the Epsom showpiece.  The assumption is that being by Montjeu he should have no difficulty in staying 12 furlongs and the triple crown is also now being talked about.  However before getting carried away with the hype, it is worth remembering that neither Tarfah nor Fickle were ever asked to race beyond 10 furlongs and as racehorses themselves the sires in the lower half of the pedigree were all sprinters or milers with the exception of Persepolis who won the Prix Lupin over 10 furlongs. The slight concern is that winning a Guineas shows Camelot to be an atypical Montjeu and perhaps he will also not stay as well as the other high class Montjeu colts.  I certainly wouldn’t be rushing to back him at odds on  for the Derby, however for the sake of racing I fervently hope that he goes on to claim the holy grail that is the triple crown, and for which we have been waiting 42 years to find a successor to Nijinsky.

    CAMELOT (GB) 2009 c b

    Montjeu
    (IRE) 1996
    Sadler’s
    Wells (USA) 1981
    Northern
    Dancer (CAN) 1961
    Nearctic
    (USA) 1954
    Natalma
    (USA) 1957
    Fairy
    Bridge (USA) 1975
    Bold
    Reason (USA) 1968
    Special
    (USA) 1969
    Floripedes
    (FR) 1985
    Top
    Ville (IRE) 1976
    High
    Top (IRE) 1969
    Sega
    Ville (USA) 1968
    Toute
    Cy (FR) 1979
    Tennyson
    (FR) 1970
    Adele
    Toumignon (IRE) 1971
    Tarfah
    (USA) 2001
    Kingmambo
    (USA) 1990
    Mr
    Prospector (USA) 1970
    Raise
    A Native (USA) 1961
    Gold
    Digger (USA) 1962
    Miesque
    (USA) 1984
    Nureyev
    (USA) 1977
    Pasadoble
    (USA) 1979
    Fickle
    (GB) 1996
    Danehill
    (USA) 1986
    Danzig
    (USA) 1977
    Razyana
    (USA) 1981
    Fade
    (GB) 1988
    Persepolis
    (FR) 1979
    One
    Over Parr (GB) 1972

    One response to “Camelot- a new legend?”

    1. Mark Devereux Avatar
      Mark Devereux

      Enjoy your blog but you’ve completely missed the vast influence of Camelot’s 17th dam….the amazing Kincsem! 😉

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  • Montjeu RIP

    We all know that death is inevitable, yet we are still surprised when it happens. Montjeu was only 16 when he died today from complications related to septicaemia. He leaves behind an outstanding legacy with too many big winners to name, but even looking at his classic winners gives a sense of his achievements.

    Classic Winners (Northern Hemisphere):

    Hurricane Run (2002 c ex Hold On by Surumu) won Irish Derby

    Motivator (2002 c ex Out West by Gone West) won Epsom Derby

    Scorpion (2002 c ex Ard Melody by Law Society) won St Leger

    Frozen Fire (2005 c ex Flamingo Sea by Woodman) won Irish Derby

    Fame & Glory (2006 c ex Gryada by Shirley Heights)- won Irish Derby

    Authorized (2006 ex Funsie by Saumurez) won Epsom Derby

    Pour Moi (2008 c ex Gwynn by Darshaan)

    Masked Marvel (2008 ex Waldmark by Mark of Esteem) won St Leger

    Additional “Classic Winners” (depending on your definition)

    Montare (2002 f ex Contare by Shirley Heights ) won Prix Royal Oak (French St Leger)

    Jukebox Jury (2006 c ex Mare Aux Fees by Kenmare) won Irish St Leger

    That is a remarkable level of consistency for a sire who has only had 8 crops of three year olds to represent him so far. It also goes without saying that there could be plenty more names added to this list before the final total is known with Camelot (ex Tarfah by Kingmambo) a short priced favourite for this years Derby and Guineas.

    In addition he did very well from his stint down under (although it took some time to recognise this) and he has also enjoyed  major national hunt success including festival winners Hurricane Fly and Noble Prince.

    Legacy

    When Montjeu’s first crop of three year olds hit the track it was a phenomenon. He sired the first two in the Epsom Derby (Motivator and Walk in the Park) and Irish Derby (Hurricane Run and Scorpion). For good measure Scorpion added the St Leger and Hurricane Run the Arc that season. It seemed the true successor to his sire Sadler’s Wells had finally arrived. And then along came Galileo.  Now it seems that Montjeu is always to be compared to his more expensive stud mate and almost invariably unfavourably. “He doesn’t sire milers and he doesn’t sire fillies and they carry their heads a little high” so the cream of the mares go to Galileo, just like their sire Sadler’s Wells kept the best mares from Caerleon. Indeed one wag suggested to me that the cause of his death was a broken heart as he felt like a jilted lover losing so many of his mares to Galileo!

    But the comparison with Sadler’s Wells and Caerleon and the conventional wisdom is unfair. Montjeu is to my mind a better sire than Caerleon and in many respects a better sire than Galileo. The most important stat is usually stakes winners to foals- Galileo has 98 from 1651 foals of racing age (6%), Montjeu is currently 100 from 1318 foals (8%). If we factor in the superior quality of Galileo’s mares then Montjeu’s comparative record is all the more laudable. He also outperformed Galileo from their shuttle crops. As for his supposed failings with fillies and milers, those perceptions could easily change and very rapidly if for instance Camelot won a Guineas and Wading a fillies classic. With further crops to come it is worth waiting to see if his record with fillies and milers will improve in time. Even if they don’t, he has done enough to be regarded as one of the ten greatest sires to ever stand in Ireland. The others probably consist of Sadler’s Wells, Danehill, Habitat, Galileo, Birdcatcher, Gallinule, Blandford, Gallinule and Desmond.

    Sons at Stud

    To date the record of his sons at stud is underwhelming. Motivator seemed afflicted by bad luck suffering injuries and having small resultant crops but he was disappointing. Hurricane Run has got plenty of stakes horses but quickly needs a big name to keep his name in lights. Authorized had a quiet first season last year with his two year olds so he needs them to improve considerably as three year olds. There are still plenty of sons either yet to retire or just retired so there is plenty of time for a successor to emerge and it is worth remembering that Sadler’s Wells had more failures than successes before Montjeu came along.

    Broodmare Sire

    It is also very early to make pronouncements Montjeu as a Broodmare sire.  However last year saw Montjeu as broodmare sire of two of the best two year olds in Europe via Dewhurst winner Parish Hall (2009 c by Teofilo ex Halla Siamsa by Montjeu) and Group 2 winner Restiadargent (Kendargent ex Restia by Montjeu). Given Montjeu’s rivalry with Galileo it is interesting to see them combine in the pedigree of Parish Hall who is by Galileo’s son Teofilo and we can expect to see there names increasingly linked in future pedigrees.

    Final Word

    Montjeu was an outstanding racehorse and his performance in the 2000 King George was as impressive as you could wish for. He had a great turn of foot for a horse who truly stayed 12 furlongs and would have got further. He also had courage as he demonstrated in a tough Arc when El Condor Paso got first run on him in heavy ground. He passed on many of these attributes to his offspring and he is huge loss to the European breeding industry.

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  • Stowaway fever

    The first two days of Cheltenham 2012 were dominated by the Sadler’s Wells tribe, in particular Oscar. However it was nice to see Stowaway a sire that we previously tipped for greatness (see earlier post) sire his first Cheltenham winner. The horse in question was Champagne Fever (2007 g Stowaway ex Forever Bubbles by Roselier) who determinedly held off all challengers to give his trainer Willie Mullins an incredible 7th bumper victory.

    Career to date:

    Champagne Fever was an impressive point to point winner at Quakerstown in April 2011. His first start under rules was at Leopardstown’s Christmas festival. This is often the venue for Willie Mullins to unleash his best bumper prospects and Champagne Fever obviously shown a lot of potential as he started odds on. However he had to give second best to Thomas Edison. Champagne Fever reappeared on the 22nd of January where he had little difficulty in opening his account at 1/4.  He was 16-1 and on the face of it not the stable selected for the Cheltenham Bumper but he battled bravely to repel all challengers and given that he has already won a point to point, he seems to have a bright future ahead over the bigger obstacles.

    Pedigree

    Stowaway is to my mind the most interesting national hunt sire in Ireland. He has earned respect the hard way and if he can survive for another few years he will benefit from massive books of increasing quality. As a son of Slip Anchor (with only one cross of Northern Dancer in the fourth remove) he offers an obvious choice for any of the thousands of granddaughters of Sadler’s Wells now in the National Hunt broodmare band.

    Champagne Fever’s dam Forever Bubbles was unraced but she is a daughter of an outstanding jumps sire in Roselier. To date Forever Bubbles is the dam of a useful winner in Presenting Forever (by Presenting) and placed offspring by Luso and Topanoora. The second dam Cool Blue was a daughter of an even better jumps sire in Deep Run and she was a winner over hurdles and has become the dam of two winners to date. There is nothing particularly classy close up in the pedigree, but like any pedigree if you go back far enough you will eventually find something worthwhile. In the case of Champagne Fever you need to go back to her fifth dam Blue Petrel who was the ancestress of Andy Pandy who was well clear in Red Rum’s 1977 National when falling at Beechers, but who gained compensation 3 weeks later in the Whitbread. In addition the likes of Scottish National winner Belmont Kin  and graded winners The Bajan Bandit and TheRealBandit can be traced to Blue Petrel.  However these are distant connections and the pedigree is no more than modest and this is reflected in the price of €17,500 realised for Champagne Fever at the 2010 Tattersalls Derby Sale.

    Conclusion

    Champagne Fever is from an unremarkable family but on the damside the names Roselier and Deep Run appear and these are amongst the best national hunt stallions to ever stand in Ireland.  It is premature to include Stowaway in such company but he is certainly starting to make his mark.  Willie Mullins described Champagne Fever as “a big light framed horse” but he has a great engine and it will be no surprise to see him return to Cheltenham for further glory in the years ahead.

    CHAMPAGNE FEVER (IRE) 2007 g gr

    Stowaway
    (GB) 1994
    Slip
    Anchor (GB) 1982
    Shirley
    Heights (GB) 1975
    Mill
    Reef (USA) 1968
    Hardiemma
    (GB) 1969
    Sayonara
    (GER) 1965
    Birkhahn
    (GER) 1945
    Suleika
    (GER) 1954
    On
    Credit (FR) 1988
    No
    Pass No Sale (IRE) 1982
    Northfields
    (USA) 1968
    No
    Disgrace (IRE) 1976
    Noble
    Tiara (USA) 1981
    Vaguely
    Noble (GB) 1965
    Tayyara
    (IRE) 1975
    Forever
    Bubbles (IRE) 1992
    Roselier
    (FR) 1973
    Misti
    (FR) 1958
    Medium
    (FR) 1946
    Mist
    (FR) 1953
    Peace
    Rose (FR) 1959
    Fastnet
    Rock (FR) 1947
    La
    Paix (FR) 1951
    Cool
    Blue (GB) 1976
    Deep
    Run (GB) 1966
    Pampered
    King (GB) 1954
    Trial
    By Fire (FR) 1958
    Blue
    Buck (GB) 1968
    Royal
    Buck (GB) 1957
    Blue
    Jirao (GB) 1957

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