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  • Arc day 2011- A new French fashion?

    The French have a reputation for being fashionable. Sunday was Prix de l’Arc day- Europe’s finest single days racing with seven Group 1 races. The results were a breath of fresh air and a delight to those people who love to see diversity amongst the stallion ranks. We have come to expect top class European racing to be dominated by the Danzig and Sadler’s Wells branches of the Northern Dancer line. On Sunday, these lines were eclipsed by a less fashionable branch of the Northern Dancer line and even more pleasingly, five of the other winners were not from the Northern Dancer line.

    Nijinsky- a better Arc day than in 1970

    The Nijinsky sireline had a big day on Sunday. Nijinsky famously lost his unbeaten record in the 1970 Arc to Sassafras. He subsequently sired one winner of the race in Lammtarra and two of his sons Green Dancer (sire of Suave Dancer) and Caerleon (sire of Marienbard) sired winners of Europe’s premier all-aged race.  The impressive victory of Danedream (f. by Lomitas ex Danedrop by Danehill) saw another victory for his sireline as Lomitas is a son of Nijinsky’s Irish and French St Leger winning son Niniski.  Alas Lomitas died last year so he will not benefit from this victory.

    Another grandson of Nijinsky sired a big winner when Kasbah Bliss (g. by Kahyasi ex Marital Bliss by Double Bed) won the marathon Prix du Cadran . In addition Nijinksy’s son Royal Academy is the broodmare sire of Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere winner Dabirsim (c by Hat Trick ex Rumoured by Royal Academy). The cap off the day, Nijinsky’s grandson Generous was broodmare sire of Prix de L’Opera winner Nahrain (. by Selkirk eg Bahr by Generous). All in all it was a welcome reminder of the positive influence of the last triple crown winner.

    Super Sunday Silence

    Dabirsim’s win in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere was another reminder of the possibilities of the Sunday Silence line. It is mystifying to me that the major European studs have not acted to secure a truly top class son of Japan’s greatest ever sire to make available an alternative sireline.  The possibilities were already shown by Divine Light who sired Natagora winner of the Cheveley Park and 1000 Guineas.  Lanwades (in the UK)  stand Vita Rosa and Darley France stand Layman, but neither could be considered amongst the best of the Sunday Silence’s as racehorses.

    Dream Ahead

    Dream Ahead (c. by Diktat ex Land of Dreams by Cadeaux Genereux) won his fifth Group 1 when edging out Goldikova in the Prix de la Foret. It was subsequently announced that he will be retiring to Ballylinch Stud in County Kilkenny Ireland at the end of the season.  His sire Diktat is now in Spain but if properly priced Dream Ahead should prove popular. For people who care about these things it is significant that if you go back 22 generations you will find that Dream Ahead’s sire line traces to the Godolphin Arabian, so he represents a good chance to continue that line in Europe.

    Tangerine Trees

    Tangerine Trees (g. by Mind Games ex Easy to Imagine by Cozzene) was a somewhat fortuitous winner of the Prix de l’Abbaye as the fast finishing Sole Power looked to be the best horse on the day. Tangerine Trees represents another sireline that has fallen out of fashion namely the Forli line which was once so popular down around Ballydoyle. However the reason why Mind Games is unfashionable is that he was a truly dreadful stallion with terrible percentages.  Thankfully he is now retired from active service.

    Elusive Kate- Can’t escape Mr P.

    Elusive Kate (f. by Elusive Quality ex Gout de Terroir by Lemon Drop Kid), could hardly be considered unfashionable being a daughter of Elusive Quality who stands at 50,000 USD and who is a stallion who is popular on both sides of the Atlantic. Elusive Kate has Mr Prospector on both sides of the pedigree as Elusive Quality traces to Mr Pr via Gone West and Lemon Drop Kid is a son Kingmambo by Mr P.  The prominence of Mr Prospector is not nearly as pronounced in Europe as it is in the States.

    Nahrain for Varian

    Nahrain (f. by Selkirk ex Bahr by Generous) just defeated her half sister Announce (f. by Selkirk ex Hachita by Gone West) in the Prix de L’Opera. In winning she gave her trainer Roger Varian the first of what are likely to be many Group 1 wins. The veteran Selkirk is from the Sharpen Up line and has now sired 14 Group 1 winners, 10 of which are fillies and again although he could never be called unfashionable he perhaps never got the credit he deserved.

    Conclusions

    Sunday’s results do not mark the end of the domination of Europe by the Sadler’s Wells and Danzig lines.  However it is a useful reminder to European breeders and buyers that there are a lot more ways of breeding a top class racehorse than through the ultra fashionable sire lines. As the French might say vive la difference!

    One response to “Arc day 2011- A new French fashion?”

    1. Mike Avatar
      Mike

      Good bit of research as usual; well spotted finding that link to Godolphin arabian 22 generations back in Dream Aheads pedigree

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  • Predicting Sales Returns

    The Keeneland sales are critical to the US bloodstock industry. When analysing the sales, industry experts often focus on the strength of the buying bench which depends on the presence or otherwise of European, Arab, Japanese and domestic buyers. The experts debate the impact of variables such as changes to exchange rates or tax charges, the size and perceived quality of the catalogue, or tinkering with the sales structure through select sessions. The presence of the offspring of star stallions or fashionable stallions may also be invoked as a way of explaining the likely sales outcome. These factors are real and do have an impact but the best indicator currently available is much more straightforward-The Dow Jones Index. I consider the issue in detail in the September edition of International Thoroughbred magazine. To read the article click here

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  • The importance of birth dates

    Studies have shown that a horses birth date has only a marginal impact on its subsequent racing performance. It follows that it should therefore be of little relevance to the sales price achieved.  I put this assumption to the test in this month’s International Thoroughbred magazine.  To read the article follow the link http://issuu.com/international_thoroughbred/docs/aug_issuu and go to pages 44-46

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  • Pour Moi

    Pour Moi’s win in the Derby was further proof that Montjeu is the pre-eminent sire of Derby colts in Europe. Galileo is enjoying a stellar year but Montjeu is still to my mind a better bet to throw a top middle distance colt.  Pour Moi’s performance at Epsom was all the more meritorious as he sweated up quite a lot lot beforehand and Mickael Barzalona stood up in the irons having perhaps misjudged the finishing line.  The sustained run of  Pour Moi was impressive as he made up a lot of ground in the last two furlongs and it reinforced the visual impression he gave in the Prix Greffulhe of a horse with a serious turn of foot.

    Pedigree Assessment

    Montjeu’s major Derby record is seriously impressive. Below is a full list of his Derby and Irish Derby runners to date. Six individual Derby winners since his first crop of three year olds in 2005 (3 Epsom and 3 Irish) is an exceptional record. Breeders have their reservations about Montjeu based on concerns over temperament and the relative failure of his fillies, but the regularity of his production of top class colts should outweigh these concerns.

    Dam- Gwynn

    Pour Moi’s dam Gwynn was unraced but she comes from an outstanding family and it is easy to see why she was sent to Montjeu.  The Sadler’s Wells Darshaan cross has produced countless top class individuals and Gwynn herself produced Gagnoa (by Sadler’s Wells) who was a dual Group 3 winner and twice a runner up in Group 1 company (the Prix Saint Alary over 12 furlongs and the 10 furlong Prix de Diane aka the French Oaks). Pour Moi’s second dam Victoress was a winner in France but an unremarkable broodmare, producing just 2 winners from 10 foals.  However once we hit the third dam, the winning Northern Dancer filly Royal Statute , the family starts to produce some top class individuals.   Royal Statute is the dam of Awaasif (by the 1974 Derby winner Snow Knight) a winner of the Yorkshire Oaks and close third in the Prix de l’Arc.  At stud she was the dam of a classic winner in Snow Bride (by Blushing Groom) who was awarded the 1989 Oaks on the demotion of Aliysa (ironically by Darshan) for a failed drugs test.  At stud Snow Bride become dam of the 1995 Derby, King George and Arc winner Lammtarra (by Nijinksy) so this is a family with plenty of classic connections.

    Konafa (by Damascus)  another daughter of Queens Statute was placed in the 1000 Guineas and started her own dynasty. She is dam of Korveya (by Riverman) a Group 3 winner who achieved renown as dam of champion two year old and French Guineas winner Hector Protector (by Woodman), 1000 Guineas and Champion Stakes winner Bosra Sham (also by Woodman) and French Guineas winner (Shanghai by Procida).

    Pour Moi’s 4th dam Queens Statute was unraced but was the dam of Canadian Oaks winner Menedict by (Menetrier) and a Candadian champion in Dance Act (also by Northern Dancer). Unsurprisingly given the names involved Queens Statute and Royal Statute were part of E P Taylors broodmare band at Windfields farm.

    Conclusion

    Pour Moi’s family has plenty of top class connections. Her dam Gwynn has already shown herself to be capable of producing a Group 1 performer to Montjeu’s sire, Sadler’s Wells. Montjeu is an outstanding sire of Derby class colts and the stated intention for Pour Moi is now the Prix de l’Arc a race in which his trainer Andre Fabre has a superb record. There looks to be a very strong crop of four year olds on the scene this year but they will have a worthy adversary in Pour Moi.

     Epsom Derby
     Year  Horse  Dam (Broodmare sire)  Position
     2005  Motivator  Out West (Gone West)  1st
     2005  Walk in the Park  Classic Park (Robellino)  2nd
     2005  King’s Quay  Glen Rosie(Mujtahid)  10th
     2006  Mountain  Skidmore Girl (Vaguely Noble)  8th
     2006  Papal Bull  Mialuna (Zafonic)  10th
     2006  Snoqualmie Boy  Seattle Ribbon (Seattle Dancer)  16th
     2007  Authorized  Funsie (Saumarez)  1st
     2007  Anton Chekhov  By Charter (Shirley Heights)  12th
     2008  Washington Irving  Shouk (Shirley Heights)  5th
     2008  Alessandro Volta  Ventura Highway (Machiavellian)  6th
     2008  Frozen Fire  Flamingo Sea (Woodman)  11th
     2008  King of Rome  Amizette (Forty Niner)  12th
     2009  Fame and Glory  Gryada (Shirley Heights)  2nd
     2009  Montaff  Meshedd (Gulch)  12th
     2010  Jan Vermeer  Shadow Song (Pennekamp)  4th
     2010  Victor Delight  Apache Star (Arazi)  7th
     2011  Pour Moi  Gwynn (Darshaan)  1st
     2011  Recital  Dibenoise (Kendor)  6th
     
     Irish Derby
     Year  Horse  Dam (Broodmare sire)  Position
     2005  Hurricane Run  Hold On (Surumu)  1st
     2005  Scorpion  Ardmelody (Law Society)  2nd
     2005  Walk in the Park  Classic Park (Robellino)  8th
     2006  Mountain  Skidmore Girl (Vaguely Noble)  6th
     2006  Land Before Time  Last Spin (Unfuwain)  13th
     2008  Frozen Fire  Flamingo Sea (Woodman)  1st
     2008  Alessandro Volta  Ventura Highway (Machiavellian)  4th
     2008  Washington Irving  Shouk (Shirley Heights)  11th
     2009  Fame and Glory  Gryada (Shirley Heights)  1st
     2009  Drumbeat  Maskaya (Machiavellian)  11th
     2010  Jan Vermeer  Shadow Song (Pennekamp)  3rd
     2010  Victor Delight  Apache Star (Arazi)  7th

    2005

    POUR MOI (IRE) 2008 c b

    Montjeu
    (IRE) 1996
    Sadler’s
    Wells (USA) 1981
    Northern
    Dancer (CAN) 1961
    Nearctic
    (USA) 1954
    Natalma
    (USA) 1957
    Fairy
    Bridge (USA) 1975
    Bold
    Reason (USA) 1968
    Special
    (USA) 1969
    Floripedes
    (FR) 1985
    Top
    Ville (IRE) 1976
    High
    Top (IRE) 1969
    Sega
    Ville (USA) 1968
    Toute
    Cy (FR) 1979
    Tennyson
    (FR) 1970
    Adele
    Toumignon (IRE) 1971
    Gwynn
    (GB) 1997
    Darshaan
    (GB) 1981
    Shirley
    Heights (GB) 1975
    Mill
    Reef (USA) 1968
    >Hardiemma
    (GB) 1969
    Delsy
    (FR) 1972
    Abdos
    (FR) 1959
    Kelty
    (FR) 1965
    Victoress
    (USA) 1984
    Conquistador
    Cielo (USA) 1979
    Mr
    Prospector (USA) 1970
    K
    D Princess (USA) 1971
    Royal
    Statute (USA) 1969
    Northern
    Dancer (CAN) 1961
    Queen’s
    Statute (USA) 1954

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