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  • 2020 Vision

    It’s a new year and a new decade,
    so I dusted off the crystal ball and thought about what the next decade holds for the thoroughbred world. In a European context the changes from 2000 to 2010 were incremental rather than revolutionary. It’s a largely familiar landscape in which Coolmore and Darley still dominate.  Sadler’s Wells and Danehill may be gone, but their sons are now dominant. In an American context the one truly radical change is the adoption of synthetics. However by 2020 I foresee dramatic changes worldwide.

    1. AI is coming.

    Artificial Insemination is inevitable and I for one would welcome this development. Economics (reduced travel costs), safety considerations (reduced injuries to stallions and mares) and critically AI’s role in disease prevention will ensure that it eventually happens. The ‘traditionalists’ chief concerns have been:

    1. the fear of huge crop sizes
    2. a reduction in stallion diversity
    3. the practical issue that foals conceived by AI are not eligible for inclusion in the stud book

    If we consider these arguments they don’t stand up to close examination. Huge crop sizes are already a reality. The marketplace will find a level at which demand (finite) will equal the new level of supply (almost infinite).  After an adjustment period, I do not envisage the top stallions greatly exceeding some of the current crop sizes. Commercial breeders have always factored in scarcity value to their deliberations and they will quickly adjust to the new environment. One interesting dilemma for stallion masters is whether they will be able to continue to charge different amounts for shuttle sires in different hemispheres.

    Stallion diversity it is argued will be reduced as everyone tries to use a smaller number of elite stallions. I disagree, as firstly crop sizes may not alter as much as expected (see above) but more importantly breeders can now access any stallion regardless of location.  For breeders in small regional markets this offers huge opportunities. As a mating analyst it would mean that geography was no longer a consideration and it would allow experimentation on a grand scale.

    Inclusion in the stud book will be driven by other factors. In the event of a major breeding country eg the US being forced to adopt AI as a disease prevention measure, the rules will be changed.  Australia contemplated AI when they had an outbreak of Equine Flu in 2007 amongst their shuttle stallions and other court cases have challenged the ban on the grounds of restraint of trade. Whatever the catalyst, once change comes, I believe the other major countries would eventually accept the new realities. If I was to make a practical suggestion I would recommend that foals would not be registered where the stallion has been deceased for 12 months or more. This would ensure that new stallions get a chance and that for example we would not still be seeing offspring of Sadler’s Wells in 25 years time.

     2. The scientists are coming.

    Genetic research is about to usher in a brave new world and one with implications for the bloodstock industry that are far more profound than the impact of AI. Take the following example(www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/innovation/2010/0108/1224261770182) and consider the implications of this work. If scientists can identify and then test for the genetic markers that determine performance, the consequences for the industry are dramatic and traumatic. Who will buy a horse who is lacking these critical indicators of success? Currently the industry is supported by the triumph of hope over probability. Genetic tests will eliminate this hope and will make the majority of foals/yearlings effectively worthless. Other possibilities arise. What if these tests can be performed on embryos? The logical thing for a breeder to do would be to cease the pregnancy and try again, which raises ethical issues. 

     On a more positive note the scientists will help debunk many current breeding theories. We should get a proper understanding of inheritance with due regard and understanding of female influence. Looking back in 2020 I suspect us modern pedigree ‘experts’ will be viewed in the same way that we regard 19th century doctors who relied on bloodletting and leeches for many ailments!

    3. The Japanese are coming

    Japanese horses have already finished 2nd (El Condor Pasa) and 3rd (Deep Impact) in the Arc. They have finished first and second in the Melbourne Cup (Delta Blues and Pop Rock) and have achieved major success in America (Casino Drive and Cesario), the UK (Agnes World) and France (Seeking the Pearl).  It is a long time since Japan was a dumping ground for failed or unfashionable European stallions and the effect of their investments in recent decades mean that their horses are competitive at the highest level. The huge prizemoney at home has probably restricted travel to date but that might be about to change. If the Japanese bloodstock industry follows the example of other Japanese industries then they will be anxious to prove themselves to the world.  It might be no more than a hunch but I predict that Japanese winners will become commonplace in major events here and in the US.

    8 responses to “2020 Vision”

    1. Ben Aitken (NTF) Avatar
      Ben Aitken (NTF)

      Point 3 -The Japanese are coming.

      I think Deep Impact and Delta Blues were merely tasters, a little dip in the water to see if the were on the correct path.

      I agree with your hunch and expect many more Japanese runners to be entered in all the major worldwide races.

      Reply
    2. Victor Sheahan’s 2020 vision: AI, scientists, and Japanese « Sid Fernando + Observations

      […]  Click here to read the post. […]

      Reply
    3. frank mitchell Avatar
      frank mitchell

      A nice trio! AI has been looming for some time, and the associated JCs around the world have done their best to stonewall the pressure to change without discussing the benefits and massive problems AI may cause. When it comes, AI will not be easy or pleasant, just reality.

      Cheers,
      Frank

      Reply
    4. Byron Rogers Avatar
      Byron Rogers

      Victor,

      Obviously you would be well aware of the current AI case in Australia

      http://www.racingpost.com/news/bloodstock/debate-on-ai-set-to-intensify-in-australia/670938/

      Interesting times

      Byron Rogers

      Reply
    5. Mike know-all Avatar
      Mike know-all

      Victor congrats on making it to number 1 in Sid Fernandos list of top 10 racing and breeding blogs in 2009- keep it up.

      Reply
    6. stanley Avatar
      stanley

      Victor, interesting article, thought provoking as usual!!
      history shows most conventional thinking upside down, no doubt all the traditional arguments which you challenge in this piece about A1 will eventually fall neatly into horseracing’s dustbin of upside down thinking.
      The justification for arguments defending the status quo against A1 can spring from the perception that A1 will threaten current stake holders in the commercial bloodstock marketplace. Not an original idea i admit.
      Yet any open discuss about how we reconcile economic self interest while acting as stewards for the sport leaves us indebted to you and all the others who continue to press on with such important topics about the governance of the sport.

      Reply
    7. Michael Martin Avatar
      Michael Martin

      Consider a breed where AI has been well established, the American Quarter Horse. Foal crops for the better stallions are huge, and the prices received for those foals quite small. Several deleterious genes have been passed through huge segments of the horse population, prior to the discovery of these genes. It is common to see “HYPP-negative” in sale ads for these horses.
      Genetic diversity would likely decrease with AI as well. Already, the degree of inbreeding in Thoroughbreds is increasing, as witnessed by the recent discussion since Oppenheim wrote about Northern Dancer’s legacy. Why limit the use of frozen semen to a stallion’s lifetime, if we are to use AI at all? Frozen semen may be viable long after the horse is not. As new genetic techniques are developed (such as sexed semen), more appplied science will result. Perhaps the same sire could act as paternal and maternal gene donor–well, just clone ’em if you like ’em. After all is said and done, it is merely one step further into that brave new world.

      Ever wonder just why average start statistics decline? Ah yes, the law of unintended consequences…

      Reply
    8. PrincessNewmarket Avatar
      PrincessNewmarket

      I work in the bloodstock industry & have had some involvement with The International Breeders Meeting. The major breeding nations are very anti AI and it would not be possible for one country to “go it alone”. As you say any foals got by AI would not be recognised by the International Stud Book Committee.

      Also it is worth mentioning the recent CEM outbreak in US Quarter Horses. Because of AI some 900 horses in 48 states were exposed to the disease.

      All it takes is one lapse of protocol, however small, and we could be looking at a major disease outbreak that would bring the racing world to its knees. That is exactly what happened in the EI outbreak in Australia – a few human errors and the industry came close to the brink.

      I’ve seen a few articles on the subject bringing up the fact that the Governor of Kentucky sanctioned AI in the 70s when faced with a serious disease outbreak. What these articles failed to mention is that not a single breeder took up the offer and he ended up withdrawing the sanction within a few weeks!

      AI, Embryo Transfer, etc are very good innovations and have their place in other breeds and Sport Horses, etc where stallions are often still competing, but I can’t see AI being accepted in the Thoroughbred world for a very, very long time. If at all.

      Interesting Blog. I’ll be checking back regularly!

      Reply

    Please Leave a comment

  • M J Kinane-worth remembering

    Mick Kinane announced his retirement at the start of December. His decision to retire after his annus mirabilis with Sea the Stars is indicative of a jockey who had a perfect sense of timing. Many of the glowing tributes described him as the ‘best flat jockey that Ireland ever produced’. I’m not convinced he was demonstrably better than Pat Eddery, Kieran Fallon or Johnny Murtagh but he was certainly as good as any other Irish jockey.  In particular he was outstanding around Leopardstown and Ascot. I sometimes had reservations about his riding in France and the US, but it is a testament to his greatness that he tended to be judged against a benchmark of perfection.  Naturally over such a lengthy career he rode many future stallions (far too many to properly consider) but it is worth recalling some of the more notable names from such a storied career.

     The Liam Browne years

    Initially Kinane rode for Michael  Kauntze and Liam Browne. The only star from that time was the cheaply bred and purchased Dara Monarch (1979 Realm x Sardara by Alcide)who won an Irish 2000 Guineas and St James’s Palace Stakes for Liam Browne.  At stud his only offspring of significance was the Lockinge winner Broken Hearted.

    The Dermot Weld Years 1983-1997

    From there he moved across the Curragh to Rosewell House and Dermot Weld where he stayed from late 1983-1997. Although it was a successful partnership that led to a number of Irish championships, in terms of influential stallions it was disappointing. The most important was Theatrical (1982 Nureyev x Tree of Knowledge by Sassafras). but he achieved his major successes after leaving Ireland. Ironically Kinane chose not to ride Theatrical’s son Zagreb (1993 Theatrical x Sophonosibe by Wollow) for Weld in the 1996 Irish Derby favouring Michael Stoute’s Dr Massini who trailed in 7th.  Indeed the Irish Derby was an unlucky race for Kinane who was also touched off on Weld’s Definite Article (1992 Indian Ridge x Summer Fashion by Moorestyle) by Winged Love in 1995. Thus far Definite Article’s main achievement has been to sire the outstanding stayer Vinnie Roe who won an incredible 4 Irish St Legers.

    Flash of Steel (1983 Kris x Spark of Fire by Run the Gauntlet) won the 1986 Irish Guineas for Weld and Kinane but like many sons of Kris was disappointing at stud.  Big Shuffle (1984 Super Concorde x Raise Your Skirts by Elevation) won a Cork and Orrery in 1987 and he is still a popular and successful stallion in Germany where he proved a reliable source of speed. In 1992 Brief Truce (1989 Irish River x Falafel by Northern Dancer) got a superb ride from Kinane to win a St James Palace at 25-1 defeating Rodrigo de Triano and Arazi ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1hUplXewoDM ) but he was disappointing as a sire.   1990 saw Weld and Kinane secure an historic Belmont Victory with Go and Go (1987 Be my Guest x Irish Edition by Alleged) winning by 8 lengths. Again that son of Be My Guest made no impact as a sire. Twilight Agenda (1986 Devil’s Bag x Grenzen by Grenfall) was another Moyglare Stud horse who seemed to prosper once he was transferred to the US, but he also failed to make an impact at stud. Vintage Crop’s (1987 Rousillon x Overplay by Bustino) historic Melbourne Cup win is of no relevance as he was of course a gelding.  An interesting and unexpected successful stallion from that period was Unusual Heat (1990 Nureyev x Rossard by Glacial) who never won above listed class, finished last in the Irish 2000 Guineas but who has risen from obscurity to become an important sire in California.

    Outside Rides

    Mick acquired a reputation as the big race king or ‘super-sub’. He certainly compiled a very impressive record for outside stables. He rode Carroll House (1985 Lord Gayle x Tuna by Silver Shark) to win the 1989 Arc http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lpiwr6H7134&feature=related and Phoenix Champion Stakes. Like so many horses at the time he was sold to Japan but was eventually returned to Ireland as a National Hunt stallion.  The next year he rode Tirol (1987 Thatching x Alpine Niece by Great Nephew) to win the 2000 Guineas for Richard Hannon. He retired to Coolmore alongside his sire where he did sire the occasional top horse such as Tarascon and Miss Tahiti, but he never threatened to be the saviour of the Forli line. Mick got to ride Commander in Chief (1990 Dancing Brave x Slightly Dangerous by Roberto) to Derby success when Pat Eddery wrongly chose Tenby. Commander in Chief was also sold  to Japan where he failed to make a significant impact.

    Mick rode Belmez (1987 El Gran Senor x Grace Note by Top Ville) and King’s Theatre (1991 Sadler’s Wells x Regal Beauty by Princely Native) to win the King George for Henry Cecil. Belmez proved a very disappointing sire prior to his premature death. King’s Theatre is now marketed as a dual purpose sire and to be fair he is a very good jumps sire.

    The Aidan O’Brien Years 1999-2003

    The biggest and most pressurised job in Europe saw Kinane rise to the challenge admirably. The list of top class horses is very long and almost all of them got their chance at Coolmore. In terms of sires the outstanding name is Galileo the dual Derby winner from 2001 followed by Giant’s Causway who was a star of the 2000 season. 

    Rock of Gibraltar (1999 Danehill x by Offshore Boom by Be My Guest) is proving an average sire given his opportunities, and Kinane wasn’t at his finest when riding him in the Breeders Cup Mile.  2002 saw Ballydoyle house the Rock, along with High Chaparral (1999 Sadler’s Wells x Kasora by Darshaan) and Hawk Wing (1999 Woodman x La Lorgnette by Val De L’Orne). Mick made a rare error of judgement in choosing to ride Hawk Wing over High Chapparal in the Derby that year. In terms of stud careers Hawk Wing has been a disaster and High Chapparal (who at one point looked destined for a career as a National Hunt sire), has staged a spirited revival and is compiling a creditable record here and in Australia.

    Fasliyev (1997 Nureyev x Mr P’s Princess by Mr Prospector) was an unbeaten two year old in 1999 who had a sensational first crop but was unable to build on it.

    Minardi (1998 Boundary x Yarn by Mr Prospector) was another good two year old but a disappointing sire.   Johannesburg (1999 Hennessy x Myth by Ogygian) was a remarkable two year old in 2001 and his success in the Breeders Cup Juvenile was a breakthrough dirt success for Ballydoyle. As a sire he made a lot of money for Ashford Stud before his recent move to Japan, but to my mind he was overpriced and the occasional top horse hid a lot of dross.

    Mozart (1998 Danehill x Victoria Cross by Spectacular Bid) was an outstanding sprinter and on the evidence of his sole crop that featured Dandy Man and Amadeus Wolf his premature death was unfortunate for Coolmore.

    Stravinsky (1996 Nureyev x Fire the Groom by Blushing Groom) was another oustanding sprinter and although eventually sold by Coolmore to Japan he left behind a creditable record here and in the Southern hemisphere.

    The John Oxx years 2004-2009

    Only two horses are likely to have an impact as stallions, obviously Sea The Stars has everything going for him and its easy to forget that Azamour ( 2001 Night Shift x Asmara by Lear Fan) was also a Group 1 winner over a mile, 10 furlongs and 12 furlongs. There were some promising individuals amongst Azamour’s first crop of two year olds and his progeny are likely to progress.

    Five best stallions ridden by Kinane

    1. Montjeu (1996 Sadler’s Wells x Floripedes by Top Ville)

    Already a dual Derby winner by the time Kinane took over the ride. Kinane rode him to 4 Group 1 wins. The most impressive was his imperious victory in the King George. He bacame Mick’s second Arc winner but in my opinion it wasn’t Mick’s best ride as he was in a pocket and on testing ground Montjeu did very well to make up the ground on the heroic El Condor Pasa. Happily Mick subsequently earned the distinction of being co-breeder of Montjeu’s Derby winning son Authorized.

    2. Galileo (1998 Sadler’s Wells x Urban Sea by Miswaki).

    Mick rode him in 7 of his 8 races comfortably winning the Derby, Irish Derby and King George on him. There was some criticism of his ride in the Irish Champion Stakes when Godolphin and Fantastic Light defeated him by a head. His career finished disappointingly in the Breeders Cup when Ballydoyle seemed to ignore the stats involving the offspring of Sadler’s Wells running on the dirt.

    3. Monsun (1990 Konigsstuhl x Mosella by Surumu)

    Mick only rode him once but it was Group 1 win in the 1993 Aral Pokal. Ironically the second horse George Augustus was trained by his subsequent employer John Oxx and the third home shrewd idea was trained by one of his first bosses Michael Kauntze. I doubt if anyone present that day realised that they were viewing a horse destined to become the greatest sire Germany has produced.

    4. Giant’s Causeway (1997 Storm Cat  x Mariah’s Storm by Rahy).

    Mick rode him in 12 of his 13 starts winning 5 group 1’s on the ‘Iron Horse’ (George Duffield rode him in the Eclipse).  Many of these successes were hard fought and it is worth rewatching his ride in the Juddmonte International ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDPyQA-WWGo ) . Less pleasant viewing for Mick would be his ride in the Irish Guineas where Bachir stole a march on him and some would argue that dropping his whip near the finish of the Breeder’s Cup Classic affected the result (Tiznow won by a neck). Although Giant’s Causeway can sometimes divide opinions amongst breeders, he keeps churning out stakes horses and he is always capable of producing a top notcher particularly on turf or synthetics.

    5. Theatrical (1982 Nureyev x Tree of Knowledge by Sassafras).

    Mick was jocked off Theatrical to allow Lester Pigott the ride at Epsom. Back in Ireland Mick had won a  Derby Trial on Theatrical and rode a good race when second to Law Society in the 1985 Irish Derby. Theatrical subsequently improved slightly when transferred to Bill Mott.  Theatrical became a fine stallion who was somewhat underrated and at stud on the wrong continent.

    Five most disappointing stallions ridden by Kinane (relative to opportunities).

    1. Hawk Wing (1999 Woodman x La Lorgnette by Val De L’Orne)

    The horse who seemed to have everything, brilliant speed and enough stamina to finish second in a good Derby.  Mick rode him to win Group 1’s at 2 (National Stakes), 3 (a soft Eclipse) and 4 (the Lockinge). His performance in the Lockinge had Timeform struggling to find a better performance in recent decades http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XiXbsSCdGLs . Hawk Wing would have won a 2000 Guineas if Mick Kinane had ridden him but he was suspended at the time and regardless he might have chosen to ride Johannesburg in the Kentucky Derby that same day. In a prelude of things to come as far as Ballydoyle were concerned Jamie Spencer took over and got the horse beaten whilst in a further portent Johnny Murtagh did a fine job on Rock of Gibraltar. A terrible stallion (like most sons of Woodman) and now banished to Korea.

    2. Entrepreneur (1994 Sadler’s Wells x Exclusive Order by Exclusive Native)

    A Guineas winner who retired to Coolmore. He did sire Vintage Tipple who won an Irish Oaks but the fact that he is now in Russia says it all.

    3. King of Kings (1995 Sadler’s Wells x Zummerudd by Habitat).  Another Guineas winner by Sadler’s Wells who retired to Coolmore. Did ok in his Southern Hemisphere stint but now in Switzerland.

    4. One Cool Cat (2001 Storm Cat x Tacha by Mr Prospector).

    Mick rode him to win the National Stakes and Phoenix Stakes at two during his last season at Ballydoyle. His oldest progeny are still not even four and he has had a lot of two year old winners in the last season so it might seem very unreasonable to make a decision on him as yet, but he has been very disappointing with nothing of note to date.

    5. Fasliyev (1997 Nureyev x Mr P’s Princess by Mr Prospector).

    Mick rode him to win the Phoenix Stakes and Prix Morny as part of an unbeaten juvenile campaign. He is on this list because he misled a lot of people (including me) into thinking that he was about to become a major force in Europe after a scintillating first crop of two year olds. His stud fee rocketed but everything since then was a disappointment and he is now in Japan.

    Conclusion

    In a career of such longevity and such success it is only possible for me to provide a very potted history. The story will still need to be updated as Mick rode plenty of stallions about whom we will have to wait to make a full assessment. However at the end of his riding career we can safely state that Mick was a truly great jockey and I suspect that Mick is one of those people that sometimes aren’t fully appreciated until they are gone (that was certainly the case in Ballydoyle when they replaced him with Jamie Spencer 🙂

    3 responses to “M J Kinane-worth remembering”

    1. Montjeu blog examines career of M. Kinane by the stallions « Sid Fernando + Observations

      […] most deadly (boring) type of piece. Now, it’s a can’t-turn-off-the-’puter post. Click here to read it, because it may actually be the best barometer for predicting the future success of his greatest […]

      Reply
    2. Ben AItken (NTF) Avatar
      Ben AItken (NTF)

      Excellent piece on Mick Kinane. I have an interest in the pedigree aspect of racing myself, do you ever look at the Dosage Method? My own blog/book features the Dosage Method heavily and it is an angle I have used successfully in my betting for a number of years. I look forward to exploring your blog in more detail soon….

      Reply
    3. Mike know-all Avatar
      Mike know-all

      Good stuff; so what are you predicting for STS?
      Some interesting comments on some of Coolmores stallions in particular. Keep it up.

      Reply

    Please Leave a comment

  • 2010- the year of Montjeu?

    The future looks very bright for Montjeu. We commented on St Nicholas Abbey after his win in the Beresford and he then followed up with a very impressive performance in the Racing Post Trophy. He was priced at 5/2 for Epsom which was understandable given the manner of his success and the fact that Montjeu’s previous Derby winners Authorized and Motivator both also triumphed at Doncaster. One week later and Montjeu produces another potential superstar when Jan Vermeer put up a superb front running performance in Criterium International at Saint Cloud. Joshua Tree had earlier won the Group 2 Royal Lodge meaning that Ballydoyle is host to three top two year old colts by Montjeu. In all cases the horses have what you might call ‘upper middle class’ rather than stellar pedigrees…

    St Nicholas Abbey-pedigree.

    Leaping Water, the dam of St Nicholas Abbey was unraced. She was by Sure Blade who won a QEII over a mile. However like many sons of Kris, he was a disappointing sire with Needle Gun being his only really top class performer.  Leaping Water is already the dam of Grammarian (by Definite Article) who was a dual Grade 2 winner in the States. She is also the dam of Cascata (by Montjeu)who won on her debut last year for Luca Cumani but has failed to build on it this year. Interestingly she cost 95,000 Guineas as a yearling compared to St Nicholas Abbey who cost 200,000 guineas.

    St Nicholas Abbey’s granddam Flamenco Wave was a top class 2yo winning the Moyglare Stakes for John Oxx but she failed to train on. At stud she has been a major success becoming dam of Group 1 winners Starborough (by Soviet Star), Aristotle (Sadler’s Wells) and Ballingarry (Sadler’s Wells). Given the family’s success with Sadler’s Wells the decision to choose Montjeu was hardly surprising. It has now paid off handsomely and I expect St Nicholas Abbey to follow in the hoofprints of Motivator and Authorized and gain Epsom success.

    Jan Vermeer pedigree

    Jan Vermeer never passed through a sales ring but on pedigree his price would have been unlikely to exceed the 200,000 guineas paid for St Nicholas Abbey. His dam Shadow Song won over 11 furlongs in France and Jan Vermeer is her first foal. She is by Pennekamp who won the Dewhurst and Guineas but he disappointed as a sire and to date he hasn’t made much impact as a broodmare sire.  Shadow Song is a half sister to Midnight Air who was a top class 2yo. Midnight Air retired as the winner of the May Hill Stakes but she was also first past the post in the Fillies Mile before being demoted to last by the stewards . Their dam Evening Air was unraced and her dam Nellie Forbes only raced twice. Going further back Jan Vermeer’s 4th dam Comely Nell was also unraced but it didn’t stop her entering the history books as the dam of Bold Forbes who won a Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes in 1976.

    Montjeu vs Galileo

     Jan Vermeer and St Nicholas Abbey have shown comparable levels of form. That said I believe the turn of foot shown by St Nicholas Abbey to quicken from last to first was more impressive than the all the way success of Jan Vermeer.  Talk of St Nicholas Abbey being a Guineas contender is far from fanciful. I for one would love to see such a success as I think it would end the debate over who is a better sire -Montjeu or Galileo. Currently Montjeu has a major gap on his cv with his failure to sire any top milers but apart from that I rate his overall achievments more highly than those of Galileo.   Montjeu has outperformed Galileo in the major classics, despite smaller foal numbers and lesser mares. He has also significantly outperformed Galileo in the Southern Hemisphere. However fashion and Coolmore have dictated that a sire like Galileo who can also sire the occasional top miler and the occasional top 2yo is to be given top billing. Even after his breakthrough success in 2005 Montjeu had to play second fiddle to Sadler’s Wells.  There is no shame in that but from 2006 onwards he has been competing somewhat unsuccessfully with Galileo for the elite mares. That to me is a shame as I think Montjeu deserves to be regarded as the best stallion in Ireland. Hopefully 2010 will prove that point.

    JAN VERMEER (IRE) 2007 c b
    Montjeu
    (IRE) 1996    		 Sadler’s
    Wells (USA) 1981    		 Northern
    Dancer (CAN) 1961    		 Nearctic
    (USA) 1954
    Natalma
    (USA) 1957
    Fairy
    Bridge (USA) 1975    		 Bold
    Reason (USA) 1968
    Special
    (USA) 1969
    Floripedes
    (FR) 1985    		 Top
    Ville (IRE) 1976    		 High
    Top (IRE) 1969
    Sega
    Ville (USA) 1968
    Toute
    Cy (FR) 1979    		 Tennyson
    (FR) 1970
    Adele
    Toumignon (IRE) 1971
    Shadow
    Song (IRE) 2002    		 Pennekamp
    (USA) 1992    		 Bering
    (GB) 1983    		 Arctic
    Tern (USA) 1973
    Beaune
    (FR) 1974
    Coral
    Dance (FR) 1978    		 Green
    Dancer (USA) 1972
    Carvinia
    (FR) 1970
    Evening
    Air (USA) 1982    		 J
    O Tobin (USA) 1974    		 Never
    Bend (USA) 1960
    Hill
    Shade (USA) 1965
    Nellie
    Forbes (USA) 1977    		 Secretariat
    (USA) 1970
    Comely
    Nell (USA) 1962

     

    ST NICHOLAS ABBEY (IRE) 2007 c b
    Montjeu
    (IRE) 1996    		 Sadler’s
    Wells (USA) 1981    		 Northern
    Dancer (CAN) 1961    		 Nearctic
    (USA) 1954
    Natalma
    (USA) 1957
    Fairy
    Bridge (USA) 1975    		 Bold
    Reason (USA) 1968
    Special
    (USA) 1969
    Floripedes
    (FR) 1985    		 Top
    Ville (IRE) 1976    		 High
    Top (IRE) 1969
    Sega
    Ville (USA) 1968
    Toute
    Cy (FR) 1979    		 Tennyson
    (FR) 1970
    Adele
    Toumignon (IRE) 1971
    Leaping
    Water (GB) 1990    		 Sure
    Blade (USA) 1983    		 Kris
    (GB) 1976    		 Sharpen
    Up (GB) 1969
    Doubly
    Sure (GB) 1971
    Double
    Lock (GB) 1975    		 Home
    Guard (USA) 1969
    St
    Padina (GB) 1966
    Flamenco
    Wave (USA) 1986    		 Desert
    Wine (USA) 1980    		 Damascus
    (USA) 1964
    Anne
    Campbell (USA) 1973
    Armada
    Way (USA) 1976    		 Sadair
    (USA) 1962
    Hurry
    Call (USA) 1960

    3 responses to “2010- the year of Montjeu?”

    1. Sheahan’s Montjeu asks: Will 2010 be the year of Montjeu? « Sid Fernando + Observations

      […] Click here to read the post. Victor, who is an expert on eMatings, doesn’t mince words. […]

      Reply
    2. TARPPPP Avatar
      TARPPPP

      i am a fan of montjeu as a sire , but why montjeu fillies are not in the same league than the colts ?

      Reply
    3. Avatar
      Victor Sheahan

      That’s a good question TARPPPP and one for which I don’t have the answer . Some people have speculated that the
      fillies don’t have the quirks that a lot of his better
      colts seem to have and that the brillance and oddness go together. John Dryden wrote 300 years ago “great wits
      and madness sure are near allied, thin partitions do their bounds divide”. He could have been talking about Montjeu’s offspring!

      Reply

    Please Leave a comment

  • 10 days that changed the world (of bloodstock)


    The last 2 weeks have seen huge amounts of top level action in the UK, Ireland and France. It would be easy to simply write about one top level winner but I aim to please so here are ten items of interest from the past two weeks…….

    1.Sea the Stars- His greatness is unquestioned, but is he the greatest ever?

    The answer is no. Sea the Stars is undoubtedly a fantastic horse whose consistency and versatility has to admired but some of the praise has been vastly overdone. I believe that I have seen better individual performances over a mile, 10 furlongs and 12 furlongs. It is interesting to compare his level of form with that of last year’s winner Zarkava. She also won an Arc by two lengths beating Youmzain, over a mile she trounced Goldikova in the French Guineas and she was both a Group 1 winner at two and unbeaten throughout her career. However would anyone seriously suggest that she might be the greatest horse of all time,as has been mentioned in the case of Sea the Stars?

    2. Mighty Mighty Montjeu.

    We have learned that when Montjeu sires a good two year old, that horse becomes a top class three year old. Thus far his only Group One winning two year olds have all become Derby winners namely Authorized, Motivator and Fame and Glory. For good measure Jukebox Jury who won last years Royal Lodge has now become a Group 1 winner after narrowly triumphing in the Preis Von Europa.  On Saturday 26th September at Ascot in the Royal Lodge Joshua Tree won well. The next day in the Curragh’s Beresford Stakes,St Nicholas Abbey was even more impressive and become ante post favourite for next year’s Derby. For good measure Bikini Babe was runner up in the CL Weld Stakes.  As if to remind everyone that he still sires the odd decent older horse he had an Australian Group 1 winner Speed Gifted to complement Jukebox Jury’s success at the highest level. With Fame & Glory likely to stay in training it would be no surprise if he is champion sire in 2010.

    3. John Oxx- You can’t get away from his influence!

    Back in 2000 Sinndar gave John Oxx the best day he could ever have hoped for when winning the Arc on the same day as Namid won the Prix de’lAbbaye. In 2009 apart from Sea the Stars he won the Prix de Cadran with Alandi who spoilt Yeats farewell to racing. This was Alandi’s second major victory in three weeks following on from his Irish St Leger victory. The weekend also gave plenty of reminders of that memorable day in 2000 as Namid sired Total Victory who followed his sire in triumphing in the Abbaye and Sinndar was responsible for Youmzain who again had to settle for the runner-up spot for the 3rd successive Arc. For good measure Sinndar sired Rosanara who was quite impressive in retaining her unbeaten record in the Prix Marcel Boussac. I wrote in one of my first posts that Sinndar was badly overlooked by Irish breeders. He is now resident in France where I hope he gets the big books that he deserves as he is more than capable of siring a top horse. Total Gallery became Namid’s first Group 1 winner but he has probably arrived too late to make much of a difference to Namid’s reputation and his lack of major success saw the median for his yearlings slip to €5600 in 2008.

    4.The Aga Khan- as good as it gets.

    The Aga Khan had an incredible weekend. Group 1 successes for Shalanaya, Alandi, Siyouni, Rosanara, Varenar represent an incredible return and a vindication of his breeding policy.The sires involved Lomitas,Galileo, Pivotal, Sinndar and Rock of Gibraltar, are a decidedly mixed bunch but such success highlights the strength of his female lines.His non-conformist approach to stallion selection often sees him responsible for breeding the best offspring of many overlooked stallions. For good measure Daryakana (by Selkirk) and Manighar (by Linamix) picked up Group 2 races. Looking at some of the pedigrees involved familiar names quickly appear. The third dam of Shalanaya is Sharmeen the dam of Shergar, the dam of Alandi is a full sister to Oaks winner Aliysa, the grand-dam of Siyouni is Slipstream Queen who was dam of Slickly and was presumably purchased as part of the Lagardere purchase so it is fitting that he won the race commemorating Jean Luc Lagardere. Rosanara is out of a Linamix mare so again it can be taken that she was part of the Lagardere acquisition. Varenar is a half brother to Visindar who started favourite for the 2006 Derby on the back of an impressive win in the Prix Greffulhe and Daryakana is out Daryaba who won the French Oaks and Prix Vermeille in 1999.

    5. Pivotal- another gap on the cv filled

    I am a huge admirer of Pivotal and it is interesting to monitor the impact of the better mares on his results. The Prix Jean-Luc de Lagedare say a first and third for Cheveley Parks finest, comprising Siyouni and Buzzword. Interestingly both are our of Danehill mares and this is a cross that has been tried repeatedly since the success of Saoire in the Irish Guineas. Kitty Kiernan is another representative of this cross. Surprisingly it was the first time that Pivotal had sired a Group 1 winning two year old although he did have Group 2 winners previously in Captain Rio and Excellent Art.

    6. Sahm- a loss

    Sahm was impeccably bred being by Mr Prospector out of Salsabail. However I always felt he was at stud on the wrong continent. He has had relatively few runners in Europe and most of them were with Kevin Prendergast, who never seemed to train a bad one eg Mustameet, Adaala, Red Moloney. He also sired Maram who won last years Breeders Cup Fillies Turf.  Now he has had a Group 1 winner in surprise Sun Chariot winner Sahpreasa. Sahm died in 2007 aged only 13 and before he really got to capitalise on his better than expected results.

    7. Sales races- distorting the truth

    There were a number of sales races over the past 8 days with the Tattersalls races at Newmarket and the Goffs races at the Curragh.  Amazingly for the second year running Hawk Wing sired the winner of one of these sales races (Lucky General) to put him near the top of the two year old rankings again. This is a travesty of justice if it means that someone in the distant future comes to the conclusion that it was a mistake to banish this great racehorse but dreadful sire to Korea. Shamardal sired another Shakespearen the winner of the Goffs Million Mile and along with Arctic who was somewhat disappointing in the Middle Park he ensures that Shamardal will feature near the top of the first season sires listing. At Newmarket in the Tattersalls races Danehill Dancer sired Lilly Langtry the winner of the fillies races which means that he will now win the Anglo-Irish championship at the expense of Cape Cross. 

    8. Middle Park in decline

    THe Middle Park stakes has been in decline for a long period. In the past twenty years only Oasis Dream and Rodrigo de Triano have gone on to Group 1 success as three year olds. This years field was small but select with all the runners having shown a high level of form. In winning Azwaan retained his unbeaten record but he wasn’t overly impressive. Alhaarth throws all sorts and this year he was very unlucky that Mourayan didn’t win thus years St Leger as he got no sort of run. In the past Alhaarth has shown his versatility by siring sprinters (Dominica), milers (Haafhd) and middle distance horses (Bandari).  Accordingly it is hard to say how far Azwaan will stay but it will be a surprise if he wins next years 2000 Guineas.

    9. Special Duty- omens are good

    Special Duty showed a very impressive turn of foot to win the Cheveley Park. She has already been highly tried taking on colts when beating Siyouni in the Prix Robert Papin and finishing second to Arcano in the Prix Morny. She is from a top class family as her dam is a full sister to Sightseek who won 7 Grade 1’s for Juddmonte. Her sire Hennessy died in 2007 whilst on duty in South America and he is one of those sires that seemed to be around forever yet he was only 14 when he died. In Europe he is known solely for outstanding two year old Johannesburg and it is to be hoped that Special Duty trains on a little better than he did. She will most likely be targetted at the 1000 Guineas and she seems to have a good chance of giving Criquette Head her fourth success in that classic.

    10. Singspiel – A value sire

    I think that Hibaayeb was fortunate not to be disqualified after winning the Fillies Mile. She clearly impeded Lady Darshaan who is incidentally a half sister to Prix de l’Abbaye winner Total Gallery. However she kept the race and thereby became the 12th Group 1 winner for Singspiel and his third this year after Eastern Anthem and Dar Re Mei. Singspiel saw a significant reduction in his stud fee some years ago and he is value at £15000. Hibaayeb’s fourth dam is Oh So Fair who achieved fame as the dam of Oh So Sharp.

     

    Date

    Horse age sex
     
     
     

     

    Sire
     
     
     

     

    Race and distance
     
     
     

     

    Dam (broodmare sire)
     
     
     

     
    04/10/09 Total Gallery 3 c Namid Prix de l’Abbaye Gr 1 (5f) Diary (GreenDesert)
    04/10/09 Sea the Stars 3 c Cape Cross Prix de l’Arc Gr 1 (12f) Urban Sea (Miswaki)
    04/10/09 Shalanaya 3 f Lomitas Prix de l’Opera Gr 1 (10f) Shalamantika (Nashwan)
    04/10/09 Alandi 4 c Galileo Prix de Cadran Gr 1 (20f) Aliya (Darshaan)
    04/10/09 Siyouni 2 c Pivotal Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (7f) Sichilla (Danehill)
    04/10/09 Rosanara 2 f Sinndar Prix Marcel Boussac Gr1 (8f) Rosawa (Linamix)
    04/10/10 Varenar 3 c Rock of Gibraltar Prix de la Foret Gr 1 (10f) Visor (Mr Prospector)
    03/10/09 Sahpresa 4 f Sahm Sun Chariot Gr 1 (8f) Sorpresa (Pleasant Tap)
    03/10/09 Speed Gifted 5 g Montjeu The Metropolitan Gr 1 (12f) Good Standing (Distant View)
    02/10/09 Special Duty 2 f Hennessy Cheveley Park Gr 1(6f) Quest to Peak (Distant View)
    02/10/09 Awzaan 2 c Alhaarth Middle Park Gr 1 (6f) Nufoos (Zafonic)
    27/09/09 St Nicholas Abbey 2 c Montjeu Beresford Stakes Gr 2 (8f) Leaping Water (Sure Blade)

    27/09/09

    		 Jukebox Jury 3 c Montjeu Preis Von Europa Gr 1 (12f) Mare Aux Fees (Kenmare)
    26/09/09 Hibaayeb 2 f Singspiel Fillies Mile Gr 1 (8f) Lady Zonda (Lion Cavern)
    26/09/09 Rip Van Winkle 3c Galileo QEII Gr 1 (8f) Looking Back (Stravinsky)
    26/09/09 Joshua Tree 2 c Montjeu Royal Lodge Gr 2 (8f) Madeira Mist (Grand Lodge)

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