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  • Who likes it heavy?

    I blame the Chinese for the ‘Summer’ we just endured. Once they stopped burning all that coal in an effort to clean up Beijing’s polluted air for the Olympics they somehow changed the Irish climate for the worse.  Also I’ve developed a new theory on the extinction of the dinosaurs which I suspect was caused by a Summer like this back in 65million BC. This caused all the dinosaurs to drown or to drown themselves due to the unrelenting misery of it all. Anyway given the circumstance I thought it might be opportune to look at those sires whose offspring do best when the ground is heavy. 

    Off the top of my head I would have named the best heavy ground sires as Efisio, Pivotal, Diktat and Sadler’s Wells & sons.  I can’t quantify this belief but they are the sires that I’ve noticed seem to do well when the going is heavy.  As an exercise I looked through every Group One race in Ireland, the UK and France over the past five years in which the going description included the word heavy. This amounted to only 12 races and the winners and details are shown below.  The findings threw up a few surprises. Firstly I wouldn’t have guessed that Danehill would have been responsible for a quarter of the wins, but he is via Westerner’s two wins in the Prix Royal Oak and Peeping Fawns win in the Irish Oaks. However as each of these horses were multiple Group one winners, who succeeded at the top level on all sorts of going it is fair to conclude that heavy ground was not needed for them to succeed. Peeping Fawn and Westerner are good examples of the maxim that good horses will win on any ground.

    The Sadler’s Wells tribe are the predominate group. Sadler’s Wells himself appears as sire of Linda’s Lad who won the marathon Criterium de Saint-Cloud as a two year old. It was a weak renewal of the race and it proved his sole success at the top level. He did add a Lingfield Derby trial before being beaten about 10 lengths in Sir Percy’s derby which is a fair indicator of his ability. Sadler’s Wells is also the broodmare sire of Peeping Fawn. Two of his sons are responsible for two winners each. Montjeu is sire of Authorized who won the Racing Post trophy at two and Scorpion who won the St Leger in heavy going. In both cases these horses achieved Group one success on better ground , most significantly Authorized in the Derby and Scorpion who broke a track record in the Grand Prix de Paris. Again these were quality horses who were versatile as to going requirements like Montjeu himself who won the Arc on heavy ground.

    Galileo only ran once on heavy ground in his maiden which he won by fourteen lengths. He is the sire of two heavy ground, wide margin classic winners in Soldier of Fortune and Nightime. Soldier of Fortune has since followed up at four in a Coronation Cup on good ground but Nightime never won again and a look at her career seemed to indicate that she needed lots of cut to show her best. The 4 others on the list are a slightly surprising bunch.  There are 2 Mr Prospector line horses in Saoirse Abu a great grand daughter by Mr Greeley and Palace Episode a grandson by Machiavellian. Saoirse Abu defeated Henrythenavigator in the Phoenix Stakes but she also won a Moyglare defeating Listen and was a close third in this years 1000 Guineas. Heavy ground was not necessary for her.  Palace Episode won the Racing Post trophy and on the strength of that was sold to Godolphin. He has never won since and is now running on firm ground in the US.  Its hard to say definitively whether he needed heavy ground or if his lack of subsequent success is due to joining Godolphin, becoming another casualty of the big blue hole.

     Araafa caused a shock when he beat George Washington in the Irish Guineas but showed his ground versatility by following up in the St James Palace on good to firm. Interestingly he has a connection with Pivotal as his dam is a full sister to Pivotal.

    The final horse on the list is Reverence who won the Haydock sprint cup. He also previously won the Nunthorpe on soft ground and is one of the few horses on the list who really needed soft ground to perform. On pedigree its hard to see where this affinity comes from- Mark of Esteem never ran on ground worse than good and his dam Imperial Bailiwick who was a tough precocious sprinter who won a Flying Childers but didn’t demonstrate a pronounced going preference. It could be down to his particular confirmation.

     Conclusion.  With such a small sample you can’t be definitive about things. Good horses can handle any going.   Sadler’s Wells and his sons handle heavy ground and make up a big part of the sample. Danehill’s better offspring are also versatile as to going. The others on the list are perhaps good examples of why its important not to be too dogmatic when it comes to breeding. Some of the other sires I mentioned such as Efisio and Diktat are hardly regular sires of Group one winners so it is no surprise that they don’t feature in the small sample above. However it is worth keeping an eye on their runners in bottomless ground as they can often surprise at big prices.

     

    Horse

     

     

    Sire

     

     

    Dam

     

     

    Dam Sire

     

     

    Race

     

     

    Saoirse Abu

     

     

    Mr Greeley

     

     

    Out too late

     

     

    future storm

     

     

    2007 National Stakes

     

     

    Peeping Fawn

     

     

    danehill

     

     

    maryinsky

     

     

    sadler’s wells

     

     

    2007 Irish Oaks

     

     

    Soldier of Fortune

     

     

    galileo

     

     

    affianced

     

     

    erins isle

     

     

    2007 Irish Derby

     

     

    Nightime

     

     

    galileo

     

     

    caumhsinaun

     

     

    indian ridge

     

     

    2006 Irish Guineas

     

     

    Araafa

     

     

    mull of kintyre

     

     

    resurgence

     

     

    polar falcon

     

     

    2006 Irish Guineas

     

     

    Authorized

     

     

    montjeu

     

     

    funsie

     

     

    saumarez

     

     

    2006 Racing Post Trophy

     

     

    Reverence

     

     

    mark of esteem

     

     

    imperial bailiwick

     

     

    imperial frontier

     

     

    2006 Haydock sprint cup

     

     

    Palace Episode

     

     

    machiavellian

     

     

    palace weekend

     

     

    seattle dancer

     

     

    2005 racing post trophy

     

     

    Scorpion

     

     

    montjeu

     

     

    ardmelody

     

     

    law society

     

     

    2005 St Leger

     

     

    Linda’s lad

     

     

    sadler’s wells

     

     

    colza

     

     

    alleged

     

     

    2005 Crit. Saint Cloud

     

     

    Westerner

     

     

    danehill

     

     

    walensee

     

     

    troy

     

     

    2004 prix royal oak

     

     

    Westerner

     

     

    danehill

     

     

    walensee

     

     

    troy

     

     

    2003 prix royal oak

     

     

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  • Sires in Form- Mere Coincidence?

    There is a popular thread on the betfair breeding forum regarding ‘sires in form’.  Forumites diligently monitor and report upon those sires who are having the most winners in a particular month. Thus far in July Royal Applause has had 18 winners, ahead of Bahamian Bounty and Kheleyf. Every month seems to see different sires go through hot streaks and then revert back to normality. So is there an explanation for these streaks, can they be predicted and can punters profit from them?

    Possible Explanations:

    1.The most likely explanation for these winning streaks is simply that they are random events. If you toss a coin thousands of times you would expect to regularly get sequences of successive heads or tails. Clusters are to be expected in any random pattern. Sires suddenly producing lots of winners is just a random clustering event that cannot be predicted.

    2. Ground Conditions. Many stallions produce offspring with definite going preferences. If we have an unusually wet summer and the ground is heavy then it would be no surprise to see a sire like Efisio sire lots of winners. Similar logic would apply to firm ground stallions. Interestingly if ground conditions were the explanation then we would expect to see fewer such ‘hot streaks’ on the all-weather where ground is not as variable.

    3. Linked to trainer form. Many trainers have favourite stallions and will have a disproportionate number of the offspring of those horses in their stables. Aidan O’Briens stable is full of Montjeu’s Galileo’s and Danehill Dancers. When Ballydoyle goes through a purple patch then Montjeu, Galileo and  Danehill Dancer have lots of winners. Michael Stoute trains for Cheveley Park and he would have lots of Pivotals and Mediceans and other trainers also have there favourites usually dictated by budget. When the stable is in form then the sires popular with that trainer would be also expected to have plenty of winners.

    4. Linked to opportunity. If a sire happens to do well with stayers and there are lots of staying races during a period then it is logical he will do better during that time. Similarly a sire whose two year olds need at least a mile to be seen to best effect won’t get many two year old winners before the Autumn. What appears to be a sire going through a ‘hot streak’ is in fact simply that his offspring are finally getting an opportunity to run at their optimum trips.

    5. Trainer perceptions. One Cool Cat had a great start with his two year olds from March-June. Trainers expected his offspring to be precocious and accordingly had them ready to run early in the season. Conversely few trainers had their Sulamani two year olds ready to go early in the season because naturally trainers would have viewed them more as needing time. The trainers perceptions determined the training of the horses. These perceptions meant that One Cool Cats offspring were ready to run and mop up the early season two year old races which are typically somewhat easier to win.

    6. Time of Year. It was famously said of the offspring of Ribot that they were better with ‘the sun on their backs’ and it is likely that due to maturation issues some sires have offspring that are better earlier or later in the year. Springtime could see winning streaks for sires who sire precocious two year olds and conversely for sires whose offspring improve with age. The logic here is that the horses would be having their first runs of the new season but they would still be running off ratings achieved when they were too immature to show their full potential.

    Conclusion

    It is impossible to be definitive as to the reasons why sires seem to undergo sudden hot streaks. I think there is some truth in all of the above explanations. Accordingly I propose a new all-embracing theory that I modestly call Sheahan’s Theory.

    6. All of the above-cycles and the handicapper. In statistics it is believed that over time everything regresses to the mean. A typical stallions offspring might win 15% of the races in which they run. If that sire goes through a ‘hot streak’ in which his offspring win 25% of their races in a month, it is still likely that the average at the end of the year or period under review will be close to the long term average.  However within racing there is another factor which quickly ends winning streaks namely the work of the handicapper and of fixed penalties. If a horse wins he will be penalised by the handicapper and will have to improve to win again. If lots of two year olds are winning maidens, next time out they will find themselves competing in higher class conditions or stakes races or alternatively carrying a lot of weight in nurseries. Unless the horse has improved they will not win next time out and indeed they will probably need a few unsuccessful runs before dropped by the handicapper back to a winnable mark.  A random cluster of wins by the offspring of a stallion could be followed by a lull when all of these horses ran next time out under penalties  until the horses were dropped by the handicapper. It is then possible for them all to come good again in a cluster later in the year. These factors would be reinforced by ground/trainer or opportunity issues. For example imagine the offspring of stallion X are best as three year olds with firm ground over trips in excess of 12 furlongs. When they ran early in their three year old days they would probably be competing over 8-10 furlongs. When stepped up in trip we would expect more of them to win and this could be amplified by suitable ground. This period might be their hot winning streak. If it was a wet summer they would be inconvenienced and they would also be running under penalties after the hot streak. We could expect many to struggle to win over their next few runs and the handicapper would drop them again. Come late August the combined effect of the drop by the handicapper and perhaps an improvement in going could see another hot streak. In racing nothing is as random as it seems….

     

     

     

     

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  • Bastille Day- Mon Dieu it’s Montjeu again…..

    Bastille Day is a France’s national day. It is very appropriate that the winner of the Grand Prix de Paris was called after Montmartre, a famous district in Paris and represents some of the best of French breeding endeavours. Montmartre races in the colours of the Aga Khan and is part of the Jean-Luc Lagardère package that he purchased on the death of the former French racing supremo. Inevitably whenever one talks about Jean-Luc Lagardère one name dominates that of Linamix and he is the broodmare sire of Montmartre. Montmartre’s dam Artistique was lightly raced, but she become one of the almost 40 Group winners sired by the dominant grey when she finished her career with a win in the Group 3 Prix Berteux at Chantilly over 15 furlongs. Montmartre is her fourth foal and her third winner.  Montmartre’s grand-dam Armarama was a high class filly who gained her finest hour winning a substandard renewal of the Ribbesdale Stakes.  There is further quality in the pedigree as she was a half sister to a superstar in Kalaglow who won a King George and Eclipse.

    As for Montjeu, his season has sparked to life in the last few weeks with two new Group One winners in the past two weeks in the shape of Irish Derby winner Frozen Fire and now Montmartre.  Montmartre becomes his second winner of the Grand Prix de Paris as Scorpion also triumphed in the 2005 renewal. Montmartre looked very impressive and it isn’t hard to see him involved in the finish of this years Prix de l’Arc for which he has been installed as the new favourite.

     

    MONTMARTRE (FR) 2005 c gr

    Montjeu
    (IRE) 1996
    Sadler’s
    Wells (USA) 1981
    Northern
    Dancer (CAN) 1961
    Nearctic
    (USA) 1954
    Natalma
    (USA) 1957
    Fairy
    Bridge (USA) 1975
    Bold
    Reason (USA) 1968
    Special
    (USA) 1969
    Floripedes
    (FR) 1985
    Top
    Ville (IRE) 1976
    High
    Top (IRE) 1969
    Sega
    Ville (USA) 1968
    Toute
    Cy (FR) 1979
    Tennyson
    (FR) 1955
    Adele
    Toumignon (IRE) 1971
    Artistique
    (IRE) 1996
    Linamix
    (FR) 1987
    Mendez
    (FR) 1981
    Bellypha
    (IRE) 1976
    Miss
    Carina (FR) 1975
    Lunadix
    (FR) 1972
    Breton
    (GB) 1967
    Lutine
    (GB) 1966
    Armarama
    (GB) 1989
    Persian
    Bold (IRE) 1975
    Bold
    Lad (IRE) 1964
    Relkarunner
    (GB) 1968
    Rossitor
    (GB) 1970
    Pall
    Mall (GB) 1948
    Sonia
    (GB) 1965

     

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  • Sunday with a difference

    Sunday saw the running of the Irish Oaks and the Prix Jean Prat. The results credited two stallions with Group One winners from their first crops and refreshingly both stallions are free from Northern Dancer. Moonstone was still a maiden going into the Irish Oaks, but after finishing runner-up in the Epsom Oaks she was probably the highest rated maiden in training.  She had cost 700000 guineas at Tattersalls so it is no surprise that her pedigree lacks nothing. The most obvious credential is that she is a three part sister to L’Ancresse who was trained by Roger Charlton at two but ended up with Aidan O’Brien at three. L’Ancresse ran 9 times as a three year old. She won just once in a Listed race, but she had some impressive placings including when she finished second to Vintage Tipple in the Irish Oaks and her final run when she finished second to Islington in the Breeders Cup. That run saw her rated champion three year old filly. Moonstone’s third dam Arctique Royale was also a classic winner at the Curragh when she won the 1981 Irish 1000 Guineas for Kevin Prendergast. Further back this is a family that provided success to Coomore through Scorpion who shares a fourth dam with Moonstone in Arctic Melody a winner of the Musidora stakes and the Athasi Stakes. This is also the family of Ardross.  It was a good Oaks for Dalakhani who also sired the fourth home in Chinese White. His fillies have proved popular at the sales as owners see him as ready made replacement for his sire Darshaan who has compiled a very impressive reputation as a broodmare sire and one who nicked very well with Sadler’s Wells and his sons. It is probably an odds-on shot that Moonstone will be sent to either Galileo or Montjeu when she retires to the paddocks.

    Tamayuz already had three victories to his name including a Group 3, however he was on something of a redemption mission having disappointed in the French Guineas. And he certainly redeemed himself. This year saw the best field assembled in the Prix Jean Prat for many a year and Tamayuz was impressive in beating the held up Ravens Pass and Rio de Le Plata. The winning distance was one and a half lengths which interestingly was double the distance by which Henrythenavigator defeated Ravens Pass. It will be interesting to see him take on Henrythenavigator. Tamayuz never passed through the sales ring but he certainly would have been demand as his dams side is dripping under the weight of black type. His own dam Al Ishq cost 280000 Ir guineas but won only one minor race. However her second dam Allez les trois is dam of a French Derby winner in Anabaa Blue, whereas third dam Allegretta is the dam of an Arc winner in Urban Sea who is now almost more famous as dam of Galileo. For good measure she is also dam of other Group 1 winers in  Black Sam Bellamy and My Typhoon as well as group winners in All too beautiful and Urban Ocean. Incidentally her two year old colt by Green Desert Sea the Stars was a promising fourth in the first race maiden at the Curragh.  Allegretta is also dam of Guineas winner Kings Best and this family is amongst the most succesful in the modern era. Nayef came close to a classic success earlier in the year when Spacious finished runner up in the 1000 Guineas and Shadwell will have no trouble in filling his book at a bargain fee of £10000.

    With breeders so fickle and with the demand for immediate success these Group One successes will be warmly welcomed by the Aga Khan and by Shadwell.  Both can now point to promising young stallions capable of delivering quality horses and almost just as importantly they are stallions free from Northern Dancer who have delivered success with mares from his line. European breeding needs these stallions.

    TAMAYUZ (GB) 2005 c ch

    Nayef
    (USA) 1998
    Gulch
    (USA) 1984
    Mr
    Prospector (USA) 1970
    Raise
    A Native (USA) 1961
    Gold
    Digger (USA) 1962
    Jameela
    (USA) 1976
    Rambunctious
    (USA) 1960
    Asbury
    Mary (USA) 1969
    Height
    Of Fashion (FR) 1979
    Bustino
    (GB) 1971
    Busted
    (GB) 1963
    Ship
    Yard (GB) 1963
    Highclere
    (GB) 1971
    Queen’s
    Hussar (GB) 1960
    Highlight
    (GB) 1958
    Al
    Ishq (FR) 1997
    Nureyev
    (USA) 1977
    Northern
    Dancer (CAN) 1961
    Nearctic
    (USA) 1954
    Natalma
    (USA) 1957
    Special
    (USA) 1969
    Forli
    (ARG) 1963
    Thong
    (USA) 1964
    Allez
    Les Trois (USA) 1991
    Riverman
    (USA) 1969
    Never
    Bend (USA) 1960
    River
    Lady (USA) 1963
    Allegretta
    (GB) 1978
    Lombard
    (GER) 1967
    Anatevka
    (GER) 1969

     

    MOONSTONE (GB) 2005 f b

    Dalakhani
    (IRE) 2000
    Darshaan
    (GB) 1981
    Shirley
    Heights (GB) 1975
    Mill
    Reef (USA) 1968
    Hardiemma
    (GB) 1969
    Delsy
    (FR) 1972
    Abdos
    (FR) 1959
    Kelty
    (FR) 1965
    Daltawa
    (IRE) 1989
    Miswaki
    (USA) 1978
    Mr
    Prospector (USA) 1970
    Hopespringseternal
    (USA) 1971
    Damana
    (FR) 1981
    Crystal
    Palace (FR) 1974
    Denia
    (FR) 1973
    Solo
    De Lune (IRE) 1990
    Law
    Society (USA) 1982
    Alleged
    (USA) 1974
    Hoist
    The Flag (USA) 1968
    Princess
    Pout (USA) 1966
    Bold
    Bikini (USA) 1969
    Boldnesian
    (USA) 1963
    Ran-tan
    (USA) 1960
    Truly
    Special (IRE) 1985
    Caerleon
    (USA) 1980
    Nijinsky
    (CAN) 1967
    Foreseer
    (USA) 1969
    Arctique
    Royale (IRE) 1978
    Royal
    And Regal (USA) 1970
    Arctic
    Melody (GB) 1962

     

    One response to “Sunday with a difference”

    1. balls of steel Avatar
      balls of steel

      “Sunday with a difference”? plus ca change, plus ca meme.

      Ballydoyle multiple entry and team tactics to ensure another Irish classic. Aidan O Brien thanking God and the team.Is this domination good for racing/breeding – is it time for somebody to shout STOP!? Incidentally, did anyone else feel that the third horse representing Coolmore but trained in France wasnt given the hardest race/best ride. Surely Coolmore wouldnt be concerned about trivialities like world records for Mr O Brien?

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