MONTJEU.COM

Blog Posts

  • Whitsbury Stud Fees 2023- After Due Diligence, what sires will be Showcased as havn’ a greyt price?

    Whitsbury Stud were quick off the mark with their fees for 2023. The stud was founded by the bookmaker William Hill in the 1950’s and is now run by Ed Harper. Their website https://www.whitsburymanorstud.co.uk/index.html is surprisingly basic but they are fortunate that their stallions progeny are doing the business on the track and they don’t need flashy websites 🙂

    Below is my assessment of their published fees for 2023..

    Stallion 2023 fee (2022 fee)

    1. Showcasing £45,000 (£45,000)- (2007 Oasis Dream ex Arabesque by Zafonic)

    Verdict: Slightly Overpriced

    Showcasing retired for a fee of £5000 which was reduced to £4500 for the subsequent three seasons. As he now stands at ten times that price its fair to say he has greatly exceeded expectations. He is now well established in the top division of stallions on these islands.

    He retired as the winner of the Gimcrack, he ran to a similar level when third in the Middle Park. As a three year old he was placed in Duke of York before flopping in his final two starts. He came with a typically strong Juddmonte pedigree and was a half brother to Camacho who has had his moments at stud from low fees.

    His first crop included Cappella Sansevera and Prize Exhibit and his second gave him a Group 1 winner with Quiet Reflection and a Group 2 winner in Tasleet. There weren’t a lot of stars in his third and fourth crops but triple Group 1 winner Advertise led his 2016 crop and an even better horse in Mothaater followed in his 2017 crop along with Soldier’s Call. These sort of results saw his fee hit £55,000 in 2019 and 2020 before dipping back again to £45000.

    In general he is a good sire of sprinters/milers, many of them precocious. For a relatively young sire who started at bargain basement fees, it’s surprising that he has five sons at stud (Capella Sansevera, Tasleet (who sired a Coventry winner in his first crop) and a trio yet to have runners in Advertise, Soldiers Call and Mothaater).

    In 2002, Showcasing had plenty of success with his two year olds. Belbek won the Grp 1 Prix Jean Luc Lagardere and he was backed up by the Group 2 winning fillies Swingalong (Lowther Stakes) and Dramatised (Queen Mary). He has 77 yearlings sold this year for an average of £74000 and a median of £52,500. Given their conception fee was £55,000 commercial breeders weren’t covering costs. It seems that the market appreciates the merits of Showcasing but isn’t willing to pay silly money for his progeny. It is for this reason I rated him as slightly overpriced but he is undoubtedly a very useful sire.

    2. Havana Grey £18,500 (£6000)- (2015 Havana Gold ex Blanc de Chine by Dark Angel)

    Verdict: Bargain

    Ed Harper is quoted as saying they thought long and hard about what fee to set for Havana Grey. To be fair it’s a tricky decision. He set a blistering pace in the first season sires championship with a very impressive 50% winners to runners (40 winners from 80 runners) , 5 stakes winners and 3 Group horses. The only slight reservation was the lack of a real superstar with no winners above Group 3 level and his highest rated horse being the 108 rated Eddie’s Boy.

    This crop of two year olds was conceived off an £8000 fee. His fee dipped to £6500 and then £6000 for his third and fourth season. Doubtless breeders who patronized him then are delighted now. His 2022 yearlings sold for an average of £59000 with a median of £43000, which is a great result off a £6000 fee.

    Havana Grey was a tough two year old running eight times highlighted by a win in the Molecomb and a runner up spot in the Prix Morny to Unfortunately. He ran a similar number of times at three and added the Group 2 Sapphire Stakes and the Group 1 Flying Five both at the Curragh. In third place in that Flying Five was Sioux Nation, his closest rival for the first season title.

    Havana Grey’s pedigree is unremarkable. His sire Havana Gold is doing well but is still available at £12500. Blanc de Chine, his dam by Dark Angel has produced little of note and you need to go well back in the pedigree to find any real quality via Chain Store (dam of Al Bahathri).

    It’s interesting to watch the change in stamina through the generations. Sadler’s Wells progeny had an average winning distance of 11.4f, Galileo 11.2f, Teofilo 10.8f, and Havana Gold’s is 7.8 furlongs . Havana Grey was best at 5 but ran well in the Morny over 6. This is a good example of the figures quoted by Emmeline Hill of Plusvital who estimated that there is a 50% reduction in T:T horses (stamina) in the general population and a 70% increase in C:C (sprinters).

    I believe his 2023 fee is a bargain as for me his runners are greatly exceeding expectations across all metrics. Having 80 runners is hugely impressive from a crop of 116 foals (103 quoted in some reports). Having 40 winners already is hugely impressive. Having 5 stakes winners is impressive. When those results come from a fee of £8000 he gets extra kudos. We obviously don’t know yet whether his runners will train on but it’s encouraging that he trained on well. His subsequent crops will have slightly lesser books of mares so he may dip in terms of profile. However, I think all the signs are that this is a breakthrough sire in the mould of a Dark Angel or Mehmas. I was expecting a £25000 fee and for me he represents a very attractive risk/reward profile. I expect his fee to be comparable with Showcasing in another few years.

    3. Sergei Prokofiev £6,000 (£6000)- (2016 Scat Daddy ex Orchard Beach by Tapit)

    Verdict: Your guess is as good as mine

    Cost $1.1 million as a yearling. He had his moments on the track notably winning a Cornwallis Stakes (Grp 3) and two Listed races but he was short of being top class. UK Breeders must believe that being a son of Scat Daddy is enough to guarantee success as he has attracted bumper books of 150+ in his first two seasons. The rise of No Nay Never and good starts by Sioux Nation and Justify support that theory.

    I would be cautious as even the best sires of sires have plenty of dud sons and Scat Daddy isn’t at that level. Those big books though give him every chance to succeed and he could easily make his mark despite his lack of top class racing ability.

    4. Due Diligence £5,000 (£5,000)- (2011 War Front ex Bema by Pulpit)

    Verdict: Overpriced

    A better racehorse than Sergei Prokofiev, he ran a huge race to be runner up in the Golden Jubilee. Whereas Sergei Prokofiev benefits from the reflected halo effect of Scat Daddy , Due Diligence suffers from the distaste that now exists for sons of War Front. Market prejudices may be irrational but commercial breeders cannot be oblivious to them. Due Diligence had a yearling median of just £7875 in 2021 but this recovered to £16275 in 2022. This was somewhat surprising as he had nothing decent emerge on the track in the year. His overall record is reasonable with 54 winners from 120 starters and 164 foals of racing age as he has struggled for patronage compared to some of his stud mates. To date he has 3 stakes winners led by a pair of Group 3 winners but its difficult to imagine him rising too far up the ranks.

    For me the most interesting thing about this sire is his record with Compton Place mares. He has a pair of Group 3 winners in Good Vibes and Streamline ex Compton Place mares and his highest rated horse on Racing Post Ratings, Diligent Harry is out of a Compton Place mare. In total there are only seven foals of racing age bred on this cross so for nicks fans despite the small sample size this has got to be a really interesting option.

    Please Leave a comment

  • Racing to the exit?

    There is an unusual amount of negativity around racing at the moment with some even questioning its prospects of survival. Optimists will suggest that racing has survived world wars, depressions, recessions and all sorts of upheavals over the past 250 years and it will continue to do so. They are probably right but racing needs to get its house in order.

    Below are ten issues and outline solutions to these problems. I will keep my thoughts on racings dreadful environmental record for another post…

    1.Small field sizes– Recent stats have shown a reduction in field sizes (although they tend to be smaller in the Summer months regardless). This is more of a UK problem as the less congested Irish racing calendar sees greater demand for starting berths with balloting a regular feature of Irish racing.

    Conclusion- fixable (eventually)

    This needs

    a)better race planning that matches race types to the abilities of the horse population.

    b) Britain needs fewer races and to stop allowing the bookies to determine fixtures. The convuluted levy system has the tail wagging the dog when it comes to fixture setting.

    c)Prize money and appearance money to offset travel costs could also help.

    d) Breed sounder horses….. The reduced soundness of horses leads to a consistent decline on average starts per horse. Germany has a requirement that stallions were sound and never raced on medication (there is a good article on the subject at https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/2147/country-where-stallions-who-have-ever-had-lasix-are-disqualified-breeding/ ) . In the UK and Ireland, breeders prioritise speed and precocity over soundness. We have a host of stallions in the UK and Ireland who do not transmit soundness yet attract three figure books of mares and breeders seem in thrall to first season sires..Racing insiders need to look in the mirror before blaming all of this issue on the fixture setters. When did you last see an advert for a stallion that referenced average runs per offspring? Breeders need to start breeding horses that are good for racing not just the sales ring….

    2. UK levels of Prize Money

    UK prize money is derisory and uncompetitive globally. It has been for decades. For most owners, horse racing isn’t an investment but a hobby. In terms of Government support, it is difficult to win an argument that more State supports should go to funding prize money for the relatively affluent. In Ireland the begging bowl/special pleading to Government has been more successful on the basis of the importance of the wider industry to the rural economy.

    Conclusion: fixable but not readily.

    There is no magic money tree to provide more funding for prizemoney- it needs to come from owners, bookmakers, media rights, racecourses or Governments-someone needs to pay more…The UK pie clearly needs to be resliced to see more directed to prizemoney from other stakeholders. No one wants to pay more and previous efforts at reform (in particular getting more from bookies under levy reform) have come up short. I wouldn’t hold my breath expecting change but an improved BHA could deliver on this front.

    3. Interference Rules–

    The UK rules are not fit for purpose and encourage interference. There seems to be little risk of disqualification unless the margin is a head or less.

    Conclusion: Easily fixed–

    Revised guidelines that give the benefit of the doubt to the victim of interference rather than the agressor. Disqualifications and severe penalties for dangerous riding will end this problem.

    4. Whip concerns-

    Animal welfare advocates view racing as cruel and the idea of using a whip on horses is abhorrent for them. Rebranding as a ‘pro-cush’ sounds daft to many horse folk, but it’s being done to placate a different audience who could do long term damage to racing. Most racing people are perhaps unaware of how some animal welfare groups portray racing on social media (see for example https://www.peta.org/issues/animals-in-entertainment/horse-racing/ ) . This is the accepted narrative for many non-racing people. Some US legislators seem open to greatly restricting racing and its worth remembering that greyhound racing (a comparatively similar industry) is now banned in 42 US states over welfare concerns.

    Conclusion: Fixable-

    It may seem like capitulation to the ‘enemies’ of racing but racing will have to seriously consider banning the whip or restricting its use exclusively to circumstances where a safety issue is involved for jockeys (controlling a wayward horse). From a PR point of view, the whip is ironically a big stick with which to beat racing. Racing will adapt without the whip and life will go on…

    5. Declining Attendances-

    Lots of tracks have shown declining attendances post Covid. Racing struggles to attract a younger audience and is still predominately a white male sport (pale, stale and male)…

    Conclusion: Fixable

    There have been lots of reports, marketing plans, committees, taskforces in various countries on this issue. It is a marketing issue- there is a good product (if rip off prices, poor catering, toilet facilities etc are resolved) and racing is a fascinating sport on many layers that can absorb and entertain. There is a glamour and aspirational element to racing that should be utilised and gambling is part of the attraction for many. I wrote about the poor effort at marketing the Irish Derby https://www.montjeu.com/saving-the-irish-derby/ but there are other examples of what can be done to reverse the slide such as https://www.racingpost.com/news/more-than-4000-at-downpatrick-in-midweek-so-what-are-they-doing-differently/568067 . Incidentally, I think the fact that children are no longer allowed to bet on the tote (whilst undertandable) has removed the gateway that started many peoples interest in racing…Bring back underage gambling – it never did us any harm:)

    6. Reduced number of trainers– There has been an ongoing reduction in the number of licensed trainers in Ireland. There were 805 trainers in 2007 and we now have 577 (363 public licence and 214 restricted licence). This in itself may not seem like a concern but a wider spread of stables and trainers allow more people exposure and access to racing.

    Conclusion: Not so easily fixed.

    The desire to send horses to big name trainers means owners are eschewing the smaller trainers who can provide a real personalised service and behind the scenes access. In Ireland we have an unhealthy concentration of resources between Mullins/Elliott in the NH sphere and the O’Briens on the flat. It might be anti-competitive but regulators could look at having a maximum number of horses allowed per stable. The growing concentration of resources with a smaller pool of trainers for me is like the takeover of the retail scene by the multiples and not something to be welcomed.

    7. Staffing Issues

    Most trainers are lamenting the lack of competent staff, particularly work riders

    Conclusion: fixable but not easily

    There is no magic wand to suddenly find hundreds of capable and committed stable staff and riders. Accommodation issues compound the problem. Staff shortages are not unique to racing but are now apparent in most service industries. Trainers have improved staff conditions and there is a notable upturn in the wages available but it hasnt solved the problem. Staff can point to anti-social hours and weekend work, the physically demanding nature of the work and the general lack of career progression opportunities which are areas that can be worked on. Stable design and process changes could improve efficiencies as basic stable mucking out and feeding regimes are still labour intensive and little changed in centuries. In the short term bringing in overseas workers seems the only solution and this needs a political will to issue lots of working visas for stable staff. That should be interesting with the current anti-immigration hysteria so prevalent in UK politics..

    8. Regulatory/ Structural Issues

    In Ireland we still have the private gentlemans club that was the Turf Club (rebranded as the IHRB) running many aspects of Irish racing. It takes large chunks of State funding but is not subject to Freedom of Information legislation and is largely unaccountable. It should be absorbed into the HRI as a first step towards transparency and accountability. I don’t know enough about the BHA to comment on its performance but I’m assuming it is not as bad as Twitter users state but open to improvement on a number of fronts. Racing needs competent leadership in the HRI and BHA and I haven’t seen anything inspiring in either jurisdiction in recent years.

    9. Welfare Issues

    Images of mistreated/emaciated former racehorses are obviously hugely damaging to the industry. A proper system for rehoming horses needs to be put in place.

    Conclusion: fixable but not easily

    Animal welfare standards in racing are in general exceptionally high. Animal cruelty cases are rare and not condoned by anyone in the industry. Blanket Veterinary restrictions on racehorses being sent to abbatoirs cause problems with horse disposal. We need to look at how to deal with horses no longer suited to racing or breeding . There have been excellent initiatives involving the retraining/ rehoming of horses and these need to be properly supported. As an occasional syndicate member, I always hope that former horses end up in good homes but it would be preferable if there were a proper industry scheme guaranteeing a proper home for any ex-racehorses. This can be funded by a levy on owners/breeders or perhaps voluntarily supported by one of the super rich people who inhabit the sport. If 3,000 horses were supported each year at a keep cost of c. €5,000 each that would be €15 million per annum which should be fundable by the industry given the importance of this issue in emotional and welfare terms.

    10. Drugs/Doping

    The biggest single issue threatening the integrity of the sport. The media may have moved on after Jim Bolger’s comments shone a spotlight on the issue but it is still unresolved and corroding the sport. The circling of the wagons and the lack of support given to Jim by his fellow trainers and industry figures was dispiriting. Nothing to see here- please move on seemed to be the wish of many old and young farts in the industry. Doping is not a new phenomenon nor is it unique to horse-racing. Athletics, baseball, tennis and especially cycling seem to be unable to rid themselves of drug cheating. US racing has an even bigger problem as its training regime rely on the use of a range of medications regardless of medical need eg Lasix. The evidence revealed in the Servis and Navarro cases showed the ease with which designer and undetectable drugs were available . Why does anyone believe in Irish (or UK) horse racing exceptionalism? There are the same incentives to cheat as elsewhere, the drugs can be relatively obtained and in many cases they cannot be detected. Why wouldn’t a trainer use them? Why wouldn’t a breeder or consignor give hormones to a yearling to ensure a better price at the sales ring? In both cases you would be very unlucky to be caught and you can usually escape meaningful penalties by blaming inadvertent use/ a mix up of medications or getting your vet to take the rap.

    Conclusion: Not fixable but can be improved

    Over the past decades we have had eGH (equine growth hormone) EPO, cobalt, milkshakes, micro dosing and God knows what else.The cheaters are usually ahead of the regulators and testers. By the time testing is in place for something, the cheaters will have moved on or developed masking techniques. Our regulators are stuck in a misguided belief that by simply doing more tests, they are doing their job. In truth they will most likely just get more negative results as the testing regime is limited in what it can reveal. An alternative approach is needed, based as much on human psychology as pharmacology.

    Catching people requires better information and targetting. Unscrupulous vets and some alternative practitioners (such as John Warwick) seem central to some of the cases that have been uncovered.

    A) Cutting out this element of the supply chain would be a huge win.

    B) Target trainers who utilise these vets.

    c) Target trainers who have sudden changes in strike rate or abnormal strike rates.

    d) Look for protocols with the veterinary regulators that would see vets struck off for the inappropriate supply of medications.

    e) Look for patterns of horses going for long lay offs.

    f) Introduce a focus on non race day testing.

    All of these changes should help but I fear they won’t be enough.

    If you are serious about stopping it, you need better information. Its difficult to see the Gardai in Ireland or UK police (who haven’t a good record in racing investigations) devoting resources to surveillance or indeed having the powers that allowed the FBI to catch Servis et al.

    g) Racing needs to put in place financial incentives to counteract the incentives to cheat. A large bounty (€50k+) for each conviction should incentivize some to blow the whistle on what they may know or have witnessed. The culture of omerta might start to crumble. It would be the best few million that the sport could spend. As Mark Twain said ‘two people can keep a secret if one of them is dead’ and there are nearly always other actors involved.

    h) The different forms of doping need different approaches. Doping to lose (nobbling) is relatively rare although in Ireland we are still waiting on CCTV in stable areas ?

    Therapeutic use of medication and pain killers is often legitimate and necessary but sometimes abused. Our testing regime only seems good at catching people who made a mistake over the correct withdrawal period for medication.

    i) Where our regime falls short is in detecting performance enhancing drugs that are only detectable for a very short window but which leaves long term benefits to the horse in terms of muscle mass or endurance. You can’t test every horse on every day so information is key to dealing with this problem…

    Please Leave a comment

  • ‘Saving’ the Irish Derby…

    Alan Sweetman is proposing that the Irish Derby should become a 10 furlong race. He argues that it is now a diminished sporting and social occasion. He is right that it is a diminished occasion. He is wrong that dropping the distance by two furlongs will address the problems. The main problems with the Irish Derby lie with the Curragh management. They spent €80 million redeveloping the Curragh but don’t know how to attract crowds.

    The Irish Derby as a social occasion has completely lost its way. As a student, I remember attending when it gave those of us in baggy jumpers a chance to admire the well heeled and beautiful. It was the Irish Royal Ascot a place to be seen. That reputation is now gone. Over the past decades we have seen the Irish Derby flip flop between Saturday and Sunday slots and between day time and evening post times. What did all that tinkering achieve?
    It was a further mistake to run the Derby at the Curragh during the redevelopment phase. The temporary facilities were more akin to a point to point. It cheapened the brand. When the Curragh reopened, we had long queues that led to a lousy customer experience. Then Covid came along and crowds were banished. The memory of the Irish Derby as a must attend event became even hazier..
    Getting the crowds back should have been the priority. Instead Brian Kavanagh stated that €50 is a reasonable admission fee. He argued that it was cheaper if it was booked in advance- so that’s alright then.. Brian should be told that you can charge those premium prices for a premium event but its now just a race with no social element. They are soaking die hard racing fans. They don’t know how to appeal to racing savvy customers or the fashionable set looking for a social occasion.
    The Melbourne Cup is a must attend/must watch event despite being a two mile handicap. Crowds attend Listowel and Galway because of the atmosphere- everyone goes because everyone goes. The Curragh management need to get crowds and atmosphere back to Derby. They seem clueless as to how to do so. The great race is not in good hands.

    Champions Weekend at the Curragh and Leopardstown have outstanding cards and struggle to breach 12,000 attendees each day. I would like to see tweaks to the cards on Derby Day but realistically these changes will only appeal to a small racing cohort. There is no such limit on what a popular well marketed social event could attract.


    The race itself should not be dropped in distance. Dropping the distance will make no material difference to attendance figures and will be throwing away a century of tradition. We have a well earned reputation for producing outstanding middle distance horses and yet its being proposed that we abandon our only Group 1 for colts over 12 furlongs! International participation may have waned in the past two decades but we lived through an unprecedented period of Ballydoyle dominance. Galileo drove much of that domination and that (boring) domination is now over and we can expect competition to increase and return.

    Change because of a few unremarkable winners isn’t a good policy. Serpentine, Anthony Van Dyck, Wings of Eagles won Epsom Derbies between 2017 and 2020. You could just as easily argue that the Epsom Derby is finished based on those results…It’s not finished just as there is nothing fundamentally wrong with a 12 furlong mid Summer Irish Derby, that showcases the best of Irish breeding and training.

    One response to “‘Saving’ the Irish Derby…”

    1. Joe Bloggs Avatar
      Joe Bloggs

      It’s not ” A Colt ” race anymore… Coolmore have seen to that

      Reply

    Please Leave a comment

  • The Irish National Stud Accounts: Notes to Note

    The 2020 accounts of the Irish National Stud can be viewed at https://irishnationalstud.ie/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/INS-CONSOL-FY20-Financial-Statements.pdf .

    The accounts themselves don’t contain too many surprises but there are a few interesting revelations contained within the notes to the accounts:

    1. The Directors of the Stud during that period included Jessica Harrington and Mark Weld. They were each paid €8,100 for attending 5 meetings- so it’s a nice gig. As the above note shows, Jessie Harrington and Dermot Weld were selected to train horses owned by the INS in 2020 or 2019. Jessie and Mark Weld may have excused themselves from the deliberations regarding the selection of trainers but it’s a situation that should be avoided. A new policy should be introduced that Board members or their families are precluded from training horses of the stud. It might also be worth asking what tendering process was undertaken before deciding that the best trainers happened to be those sitting at the Board table? The amounts involved are small in the overall context of the stud but the optics in terms of ‘insiders’ are not good…

    The INS could go a step further and deliberately place horses with smaller trainers/regional trainers/younger trainers. The trainers used should be rotated every few years. The loss of a few horses isn’t going to impact on a Dermot Weld or Jessie Harrington but it would be a nice boost for someone at an earlier stage of their career.

    2. The stud has received a derogation from the Dept of Agriculture to avoid listing the number of employees by salary bands, which is not good practice and should be reviewed. This is the same evasion as practiced by the IHRB and prevents proper scrutiny of the appropriateness of the management structure and payscales.

    3. On a positive note, the salary of the Chief Executive Cathal Beale is fully disclosed as is a requirement under the Code of Practice for Commercial State Bodies. This salary amount might attract outrage on Liveline (an Irish chat show in which the callers complain about everything) but it doesn’t seem outlandish for the role and for someone who has brought some energy to the role.

    Please Leave a comment

Other Posts