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Can you have too much of a good thing?

Frankel’s first foal was born on the 11th of January.  The dam Chrysanthemum was a Group 3 winner trained by David Wachman for Coolmore connections. In truth, in terms of racing performance and pedigree Chrysanthemum was no more than a middle ranking member of Frankel’s stellar first book of mares.

However what is far more interesting is the pedigree cross it represents.  We are by now, well used to seeing variants of the  Sadler’s Wells (and sons) by Danehill cross , the cross that reached its pinnacle with Frankel himself. It has proved hugely successful with Galileo alone having sired  8 Group 1 winners out of Danehill mares. Chrysanthemum is by Danehill Dancer out of a daughter of Sadler’s Wells and it begs the question can you have too much of a good thing?

Sadler’s Wells and Danehill are the giant names of European breeding in recent decades. Coolmore achieved considerable success with the likes of Horatio Nelson (Danehill ex Imagine), Peeping Fawn (Danehill ex Maryinsky and Chevalier (Danehill ex Legend Maker) bred on this cross.  Given the number of high class broodmares they possess with both names in the pedigree it is perhaps unsurprising that they are considering doubling up what has worked in the past.

They would have been encourage by the results to date for Teofilo (Galileo ex Speirbhean by Danehill) who is similarly bred to Frankel. Teofilo has made a good start to his stud career highlighted by Group 1 success for Parish Hall  (ex Halla Siamsa by Montjeu) and Irish Derby success  with Trading Leather who is out of a Sinndar mare and thus has another cross of Danzig as does Voleuse Des Coeurs (ex Vadorga by Grand Lodge). This new foal is just gone a little further in terms of duplication.

This foal will have Sadler’s Wells 3X3, and Danehill 3X3.  In the first 6 generations Northern Dancer’s name appears 5 times and he appears once more in the 7th generation. Given that Danehill features 2 crosses of Northern Dancer’s dam Natalma, her name appears 8 times in the pedigree! If this was  a human we would be appalled, even if it was a pedigree dog we would be concerned yet when it comes to our friends the thoroughbreds we just think it’s interesting!  As regards the question, whether you can have too much of a good thing,  we will obviously just have to wait until he finishes his racecourse career to answer that one…

Frankel's first foal
6 generation pedigree

Hurricane on a run

Hurricane Run (Montjeu ex Hold On by Surumu) was his father’s truest son. I have never seen a better example of a horse whose career almost totally mirrored that of his sire. It is worth listing their respective careers from the time of the French Derby in the Summer of their three year old careers. 

Race  
Montjeu  
Hurricane Run  
Prix de Jockey Club 
1st 
2nd 
Irish Derby
1st 
1st 
Prix Niel 
1st 
1st 
Prix de l’Arc 
1st 
1st 
Japan Cup 
4th 
na 
Tattersalls Gold Cup 
1st 
1st 
Grand Prix de Saint Cloud 
1st 
2nd 
King George 
1st 
1st 
Prix Foy 
1st 
2nd 
Prix de l’Arc 
4th 
3rd 
Champion Stakes 
2nd 
3rd 
Breeders Cup Turf 
7th 
6th 

As you will see Hurricane Run ran in 11 of the 12 races that his sire contested- an incredible statistic. They differed in that Hurricane Run did not contest the Japan Cup at the end of his three year old season.  In addition their runs  in the French Derby are not entirely comparable as that classic was shortened in distance to 10 furlongs in 2005, a change that almost certainly cost Hurricane Run victory in that classic. However their careers are remarkably similar and at his peak Hurricane Run came within a few pounds of his sire. Timeform rated Hurricane Run at 134 as a three year old and 130 as a 4 year old compared to 137 for Montjeu at three and four. The hope at Coolmore is that he will achieve similar success as a sire. The good news for Coolmore is that his three year olds are stepping up considerably on their two year old form and he looks set for a good season.

First Crop 2 year old Results

Hurricane Run has 147 representatives in his current crop of three year olds. 18 of them managed to win as two year olds which was a creditable outcome. The best of last years runners was the filly Cochabamba (ex Bolivia by Distant View) who finished her campaign with a close second to Cape Dollar (Cape Cross ex Green Dollar by Kingmambo) in the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes. Both of those fillies have genuine classic aspirations and to me represent good ante-post bets for the Oaks for which they are available at around 80-1 on betfair.

First Crop Three Year Old results

The table below shows the results for all of the three year olds by Hurricane Run to have raced in the UK so far this year. The races involved are low class affairs, mostly run on the all-weather but the results could hardly be much better. From 11 runs, there have been five wins, four seconds and one third an outstanding strike rate. In addition his early season result in France include Stakes placings for Don’t  Hurry Me (ex Beringold by Bering) and Kreem (ex En Public by Rainbow Quest). It was always to be hoped that his progeny would improve significantly with age and they seem to be fulfilling that promise. This time last year Dubawi started the season with a lot of early low grade winners and it proved a harbinger of an outstanding season and it will be interesting to see whether Hurricane Run can match his success.

Date
Track
Horse
Dam & Damsire
Pos.
Dist.
03/01/2011
Wolverh.
Roi de Boeuf
Princess Killeen by Sinndar
5th
9 f
08/01/2011
Lingfield
Hurricane Higgins
Mare Aux Fees by Kenmare
1st
10 f
17/01/2011
Wolverh.
Sheila’s Star
Yaselda by Green Desert
2nd
9 f
17/01/2011
Wolverh.
Roi de Boeuf
Princess Killeen by Sinndar
1st
9 f
26/01/2011
Kempton
Sheila’s Star
Yaselda by Green Desert
2nd
10 f
26/01/2011
Kempton
Roi de Boeuf
Princess Killeen by Sinndar
3rd
10 f
25/02/2011
Wolverh.
Barbican
The Faraway Tree by Suave Dancer
1st
9 f
26/03/2011
Lingfield
Viking Storm
Danehill’s Dream by Danehill
2nd
10 f
03/04/2011
Doncaster
Barbican
The Faraway Tree by Suave Dancer
1st
10 f
06/04/2011
Beverley
Pretty Diamond
Cheal Rose by Doctor Devious
1st
12 f
07/04/2011
Kempton
Swindy
Red Passion by Seeking the Gold
2nd
10 f

 Hurricane Run’s Pedigree

Hurricane Run was part of the sensational first crop of Montjeu that also included classic winning colts Motivator and Scorpion. To date we have little evidence of Montjeu’s prowess as a sire of sires, apart from the slightly disappointing Motivator. In his defence we should probably withhold judgement on Motivator as his stud career has been hampered by injuries. Hurricane Run’s dam Hold On was Listed placed and second dam Hone was dam of Group 2 winner Hondo Mondo (by Caerleon). However this is an unexciting female line, largely unfamiliar to UK & Irish breeders. This meant that despite his racecourse prowess Hurricane Run’s stud fee could not be set at more than €30,000 on his retirement. It remained at that level in his second season at stud but is listed as €15,000 for 2011.  It is interesting that Hurricane Run’s dam sire is the 1977 German Derby winner Surumu, who occupies the same place in the pedigree of outstanding German sire Monsun and decent sire Lomitas.

Conclusion

This is a critical year for Hurricane Run. He wasn’t expected to make a big impact with his two year olds and they performed respectably but not exceptionally. However the very early signs are that his progeny are coming into their own as three year olds.  It is hoped that just as he was almost a replica of his sire as a racehorse he may come to replicate his success as a stallion. If that comes to pass, his current fee of €15,000 will look like value.

HURRICANE RUN (IRE) 2002 c b
Montjeu
(IRE) 1996		 Sadler’s
Wells (USA) 1981		 Northern
Dancer (CAN) 1961		 Nearctic
(USA) 1954
Natalma
(USA) 1957
Fairy
Bridge (USA) 1975		 Bold
Reason (USA) 1968
Special
(USA) 1969
Floripedes
(FR) 1985		 Top
Ville (IRE) 1976		 High
Top (IRE) 1969
Sega
Ville (USA) 1968
Toute
Cy (FR) 1979		 Tennyson
(FR) 1970
Adele
Toumignon (IRE) 1971
Hold
On (GER) 1991		 Surumu
(GER) 1974		 Literat
(GER) 1965		 Birkhahn
(GER) 1945
Lis
(GER) 1960
Surama
(GER) 1970		 Reliance
(FR) 1962
Suncourt
(GB) 1952
Hone
(GB) 1974		 Sharpen
Up (GB) 1969		 Atan
(USA) 1961
Rocchetta
(GB) 1961
Lucy
(GB) 1966		 Sheshoon
(GB) 1956
Laverock
(GB) 1961

Coolmore-dominance in decline?

Back in April 2010 everything must have seemed rosy down in Tipperary. Eskendereya (Giant’s Causeway ex Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew) looked set to finally provide one of their sires with a coveted Kentucky Derby victory. In Europe, St Nicholas Abbey (Montjeu ex Leaping Water by Sure Blade) was favourite for the Guineas and Derby. Galileo, Montjeu and Danehill Dancer were established members of Europes elite and the stallion roster contained plenty of unproven but exciting young stallions.

Fast forward to November and just like the Irish economy, things are looking somewhat grim despite Galileo helping them to an incredible 21st consecutive UK & Ireland sires championship. Galileo had a stellar year with Cape Blanco, Rip Van Winkle, Sans Frontiere, Lily of the Valley and three Group 1 winning 2 year olds in Play Misty for Me, Frankel and Roderic O’ Connor. It was a season comparable with any that Sadler’s Wells enjoyed in his heyday. That however is the end of the good news. After a recent stud visit one source told me that Galileo seemed to be in poor physical shape and had lost a lot of condition. If anything was to restrict his capacity to serve large books next year it would be a serious setback.

Montjeu

Montjeu had a disappointing year. St Nicholas Abbey failed to reappear after his Guineas fifth and Jan Vermeer was somewhat disappointing. Fame & Glory did add two Group 1’s but his season ended in disappointment in the Arc. Joshua Tree won the Canadian International but no obvious stars emerged from his two year old crop. He hasn’t suddenly become a bad sire but a Guineas win for St Nicholas Abbey would have helped fill one of the major gaps in his cv. The other gap is of course his relative lack of success with fillies, something which reduces his popularity with breeders.

Danehill Dancer

Danehill Dancer had two Group 1 winning fillies in Lilly Langtry (ex Hoity Toity by Darshaan) and Ave (ex Anna Amalia by In The Wings). However his results did not do enough to justify his private fee and to my mind he ranks behind Dansili, Pivotal, Dubawi and Oasis Dream amongst the top miler sires in Europe. Although they still refer to him as the best sire son of Danehill in Europe, Coolmore are aware of his limitations. This is evidenced through their use of Dansili rather than Danehill Dancer for many of their elite mares .

The Young Guns

Oratorio and Footstepsinthesand both had their first crop of three year olds. Both could have been expected to see their offspring improve with age. Both disappointed and they now seem pricey at €15000 and €12500 respectively. It would be no surprise to see either or both sold abroad.

Amongst the first season sires there were no fireworks and no Group 1 winners. Holy Roman Emperor (Danehill ex L’On Vite by Secretariat) came second to Iffraaj but there was a distinct lack of quality amongst the quantity. Aussie Rules (Danehill ex Last Second by Alzao) probably did best of the newcomers with a few Group horses included amongst his winners. Hurricane Run (Montjeu ex Hold On by Surumu) did ok considering no one really expected him to get precocious types. Ad Valorem (Danzig ex Classy Women by Relaunch) produced nothing of note and a similar comment applies to Ivan Denosovich (Danehill ex Hollywood Wildcat by Kris S) who will probably be moved on quickly.

middle of the road sires

There is nothing wrong with Peintre Celebre (fee €15,000), Rock of Gibraltar (fee 22,500) or High Chaparral (€15,000) as stallions but their limitations are evident at this stage. High Chaparral should be moved permanently to Coolmore Australia where he is so much more successful and highly regarded.

Next Year

2011 sees the first runners for Strategic Prince (Dansili ex Ausherra by Diesis) and Dylan Thomas (Danehill ex Lagrion by Diesis). It has been a number of years since Coolmore have unearthed a promising new sire and the odds are against Strategic Prince making the breakthrough. Dylan Thomas has the advantage of plenty of well credentialled mares but there is a bias against the staying sons of Danehill.

The end comes quickly

Coolmore has dominated the European scene for so long that it is unsurprising that we start to raise eyebrows at any erosion of its dominance. In 2006, 2007 and 2008 they had 5 of the top 6 stallions in the UK and Irish rankings. In 2009 they had 3 of the top 6 and in 2010 this was down to 2 of the top 6. Their stranglehold has ended.

Reasons for decline.

1.It was inevitable that the massive Arab investment in bloodstock would eventually unearth some top class stallions. This year was a very good year for Darley. Amongst their young stallions Dubawi emerged as a superstar and Shamardal had a fine year. Iffraaj took first season sire honours. King’s Best had two Derby winners in Workforce and Eishin Flash. Cape Cross produced another top class colt in Behkabad. In addition Sheikh Mohammed owns significant stakes in “independent stallions” Invincible Spirit and Pivotal who were 6th and 11th respectively in this years Irish/UK sire table. Juddmonte are sitting pretty with two outstanding young stallions in Dansili and Oasis Dream.

2. You can’t just go out a find a replacement for either Sadlers Wells or Danehill:)

3.Too many eggs in one basket. The Coolmore roster was incredibly top heavy with sons of Danehill, and except for Danehill Dancer they have failed to strike gold with them. The assertion that he is an outstanding sire of sires is open to debate in a European context. Their faith in Danehill Dancer to found a sireline via Mastercraftsman, Choisir and Choisir’s son Starspangledbanner may also prove misguided.

4. Competitors have upped their game in terms of PR, marketing and deal making. Coolmore PR is also becoming a little jaded and it is starting to invite cynicism everytime we hear AP O’Brien describe his latest winner as showing”incredible natural speed but he is so relaxed and settles so well that you could run him in either the July Cup or the Ascot Gold Cup!”

5. The Maktoum boycott didn’t help and would have influenced some breeders decisions

6. The euro sterling exchange rate rose considerably over the noughties with a particularly sharp spike in 2008. This made using Coolmore stallions more expensive for UK breeders.

7. Lack of outcross options. All of the current stallions are Northern Dancer line stallions and breeders will want more options in time

The future

A world leader like Coolmore doesn’t just suddenly disappear into oblivion. Galileo is still only 12 and is poised for a period of dominance. However apart from Montjeu the supporting cast appears weak and similarly their American roster is unexceptional apart from Giants Causeway. However they still have the financial resources to buy the best yearlings and the best trainer in the world to manage them. The ending of the partnership with Johnny Murtagh indicates the pressure that is on everyone to produce results- 14 Group 1 wins this year was still deemed a disappointing year. Their dominance might be in relative decline but they are still the best in the game.

A vintage crop?

When we think of races involving horses that became successful stallions, the standout event is the 1984 French Derby that famously saw Darshaan defeat Sadler’s Wells and Rainbow Quest.  The 1996 July Cup won by Anabaa, had Danehill Dancer and Pivotal back in fifth and sixth places.  It is early days yet, but we might soon be adding races from the 2005 season to the above list as the likes of Dubawi, Shamardal,  Oratorio, Motivator and Footstepsinthesand were all in their classic year, whilst Azamour was enjoying a very successful four year old season. Arakan never competed against the aforementioned horses but he is also enjoying a good start with his first three year olds.

The above thoughts are prompted by the results of the French 2000 Guineas which resulted in a 1-2-3 for second season sires with Lope de Vega (by Shamardal), defeating Dick Turpin (Arakan ex Merrily by Sharood) and Shamalgan (Footstepsinthesand ex Genevale by Unfuwain). Following on from the classic successes of Dubawi’s offspring Makfi and Worthadd and some promising results for Azamour and Oratorio, it looks as if we have an unusually large number of promising sires coming on stream at once. It is much too early to be dogmatic about any of these sires but we can make some reasonable assumptions.

1. Arakan is the least likely to succeed. In one sense he has already surpassed expectations and he has sired a horse (Dick Turpin) of superior racing merit to himself. Arakan never won above Group 3 level despite being kept in training until the age of five, and as a son of Nureyev (who many regard with suspicion as a sire of sires) he didn’t immediately appeal as a likely sire success. The challenge will be to remain above the radar for the next few years until he can hopefully capitalise on the success of Dick Turpin.

2. Motivator has been plagued by bad luck. Injury restricted his first crop size and he has now missed the 2010 breeding season.  He had some promising two year olds last year notably Pollenator and Prompter and he seems capable of getting a decent horse but in a fickle market place he needs a big horse to appear quickly.

3. Azamour seems the best source of quality stamina at this stage. Despite being a son of Night Shift who sired more than his fair share of sprinters the early signs are that Azamours progeny will stay as well as he did himself. To date he has sired two Derby trial winners in Azmeel and Puncher Clynch. Eleanora Duse also ran well when a close third in the Musidora Stakes.

4.  Darley are currently outscoring Coolmore amongst the younger brigade.  The achievements to date of Dubawi outrank those of any of the other sires listed. Shamardal has also achieved more than  Coolmore’s Oratorio or Footstepsinthesand.  Coolmore will be hoping that Steinbeck can be the big horse that Footstepsinthesand needs, whereas Oratorio looks as if he has a good spread of possible top horses with Lolly for Dolly being a contender for the Irish Guineas and Fencing Master and Beethoven could add to last years achievements.  I doubt if they are panicking in Tipperary but it does seem to be a few years since they have added a real star to their roster.