Tag: national hunt sires

  • National Hunt Sire Lines- 1st Monsun, 2nd Montjeu, 3rd Galileo

    With the world in the grip of a pandemic, it may seem crass to write about something as trivial as horse racing, but we all need our distractions.

    I was asked via Twitter to look at the overall performance of grandsons of Galileo in National Hunt Racing (I recently wrote about their performance at Cheltenham). As the overuse of sons of Galileo is a bugbear of mine, I didn’t take much persuasion to accept the challenge.

    To make a meaningful comparison, I looked at the performance throughout the 2019/2020 season of sire sons of Galileo, Montjeu and Monsun. The numbers confirm that sire-sons of Galileo are nothing special in the world of National Hunt racing. In fact their performance is inferior to that of sires by Montjeu and especially by Monsun.

    Methodology:

    I looked at the sire standings for National Hunt in 2019/2020 for the top 550 sires from the Racing Post website. I then extracted and aggregated the results for the sons of Galileo, Montjeu and Monsun. The summary results are shown below:

    SIRELINEWnrsRnrsW/R %WinsRuns%Stks Wnrs
    GALILEO SIRES TOTAL12752224.3%174172110.1%11
    MONSUN SIRES TOTAL22479728.1%322263712.2%15
    MONTJEU SIRES TOTAL16561326.9%235202311.6%13

    Summary of Findings:

    Sons of Galileo fare poorly in terms of winners to runners and wins to runs compared with sons of Montjeu and especially sire sons of Monsun. There may be some reasons to account for the difference such as a younger age profile of the representatives of the Galileo tribe but there is nothing in the figures to suggest that National Hunt breeders should be flocking to sons of Galileo…

    Blindly believing in sire lines on the flat or in National hunt racing will lead to lots of disappointments. There are individual sons of Galileo who could be promising jumps sires (Nathaniel especially) but overall the figures suggest that most sons of Galileo are not that welcome an addition to National Hunt pedigrees. The real concern is that sending one third of mares to sons of Galileo may eventually cause long term damage the National hunt breed by narrowing the gene pool. National Hunt breeders may feel reassured in using sons of Galileo ( everyone else is doing it) , but as the Corona virus has shown, being part of the crowd isn’t always such a good idea….

    Detailed Workings: Stallions listed by their placing in the sires table by earnings- figures as shown on Racing Post website on 28/03/2020 and referring to UK and Irish earnings for 2019/2020 season

    RankStallionWnrsRnrsW/R %WinsRuns%Stks WnrsEarnings £
    13Mahler5321325%7275210%2£949,163
    49Nathaniel173944%2211719%4£328,541
    98Sixties Icon53415%71216%0£146,624
    114Rip Van Winkle102934%1410114%0£121,731
    135Sans Frontieres64115%91178%1£98,224
    141Teofilo83921%91257%1£92,078
    148New Approach72429%98211%0£87,972
    164Soldier Of Fortune31127%64513%1£71,857
    240Cima De Triomphe11100%2450%1£42,105
    246Imperial Monarch21613%4469%1£40,774
    253Australia3933%32811%0£37,282
    255Heliostatic3560%41233%0£36,694
    259Battle Of Marengo2633%42615%0£35,329
    294Finsceal Fior21217%32811%0£27,716
    390Vendangeur1425%1205%0£14,971
    435Frankel090%0240%0£11,521
    444Noble Mission1333%2633%0£11,039
    451Roderic O’Connor1714%1157%0£10,552
    465Intello090%0190%0£9,464
    485Feel Like Dancing11100%1520%0£8,178
    512Ruler Of The World1425%11010%0£6,607
    529Cape Blanco030%060%0£5,688
    537Red Rocks030%0120%0£5,478
    GALILEO SIRES TOTAL 12752224.3%174172110.1%11


    RankStallionWnrsRnrsW/R %WinsRuns%Stks WnrsEarnings £
    11Getaway7525829%9886611%5£1,100,603
    16Network216134%3219616%3£845,837
    29Arcadio3014121%454819%1£541,960
    30Shirocco3914826%5543613%2£531,547
    57Schiaparelli105020%141549%1£283,101
    63Gentlewave61250%83921%1£233,923
    72Samum4667%81942%1£201,211
    82September Storm93327%1714911%0£181,315
    133Salutino51436%116517%0£102,638
    149Aizavoski93030%127915%0£87,690
    167Manduro51436%84916%0£69,827
    220Noroit31619%4557%0£48,225
    254Lauro3560%41429%0£37,087
    264Axxos2367%21513%0£34,877
    303Ocovango1425%2825%1£26,632
    367Speedmaster22100%21217%0£17,480
    MONSUN SIRES TOTAL 22479728.1%322263712.2%15


    RankStallionWnrsRnrsW/R %WinsRuns%Stks WnrsEarnings £
    17Scorpion4218922%557198%1£810,218
    35Walk In The Park82730%98011%4£483,862
    36Fame And Glory3313624%4938013%1£473,569
    37Authorized225937%3220016%1£451,972
    77Pour Moi113037%189020%0£195,358
    92Montmartre72726%128814%2£155,773
    96Maxios81747%115122%1£150,255
    97Motivator72035%125920%1£148,850
    103Papal Bull83126%101139%1£139,334
    105Davidoff2540%41822%1£135,129
    120Jukebox Jury61060%123139%0£114,475
    153Camelot52818%5836%0£84,328
    352Honolulu2450%21020%0£19,342
    375Frozen Fire2633%22110%0£17,080
    400Hurricane Run0110%0320%0£14,439
    455Masked Marvel1250%1714%0£10,104
    461Spider Flight050%0200%0£9,735
    484Recital1617%1215%0£8,221
    MONTJEU SIRES TOTAL 16561326.9%235202311.6%13

  • Cheltenham 2020 and Galileo..

    I recently wrote about the deeply concerning rush by National Hunt breeders to use sons of Galileo https://www.montjeu.com/archives/1122. The results at Cheltenham don’t lessen that concern.

    Herd mentality will see one third of NH mares go to sons of Galileo this year. Looking at the results at Cheltenham, where Galileo had 3 runners and his sons sired 17 runners, there is nothing to justify such faith.

    Nathaniel did very well with 2 winners (albeit Burning Victory was fortunate that Goshen unseated) from 3 runners. However, he is a £25000 flat sire and if you take him out the results are very ordinary. If Irish and UK breeders want to reclaim some of the ground they have lost to French breds then they will have to put less trust in the adverts from the stud farms and look at supporting a more varied range of NH stallions… The full listing of runners by Galileo and his sons is shown below.

    HorseSirePositionRunnersClassType
    WhatsnotoknowMahler815Grade 1Hurdle
    SupasundaeGalileo717Grade 1Hurdle
    SacchoaandvanzettiFinsceal Fior1122Grade 3Hurdle
    Fraser IslandAustralia1822Grade 3Hurdle
    Ocean WindTeofilo623Grade 1NHF
    Mahler AllstarMahler1223Grade 1NHF
    Annie McMahler912Grade 1Chase
    Itchy FeetCima de Triompheur12Grade 1Chase
    ConcertistaNathaniel122Grade 2Hurdle
    Vienna CourtMahler822Grade 2Hurdle
    Bob MahlerMahler323HcpChase
    Deise AbaMahler523HcpChase
    Le MuseeGalileo1323HcpChase
    Like the SoundSoldier of Fortunepu23HcpChase
    Burning VictoryNathaniel113Grade 1Hurdle
    Navajo PassNathaniel413Grade 1Hurdle
    Lord LamingtonAustralia1013Grade 1Hurdle
    BuildmeupbuttercupSixties Icon324Grade 3Hurdle
    Chris’s DreamMahler1012Grade 1Chase
    Big BlueGalileo1923HcpHurdle
  • Galileo, Groupthink, National Hunt Breeding And A New Heresy….

    Back in 1633, Galileo was convicted of heresy for his espousal of the heliocentric view of the universe. He was sentenced to house arrest which lasted until his death in 1642.

    Sadler’s Wells transformed National Hunt breeding, so breeders seem to assume that Galileo will do the same. Here is my heresy; when it comes to National Hunt breeding, I don’t believe in Galileo… The Catholic Church admitted it was wrong in 1992. I wonder if it will take as long to admit to a mistake by National Hunt breeders?

    Grounds for Concern:

    1. Sadler’s Wells was a great sire of jumpers, Galileo isn’t.

    Looking at Racing Post Ratings, from 294 runners over jumps, Galileo has sired just two runners rated over 155, Celestial Halo on 167 and Supasundae on 165 . In contrast from 362 runners, Sadler’s Wells has 11 runners including the imperious Istabraq on 181, Synchronized on 171, Pridwell on 169, Essex on 165 and Theatreworld on 164 .

    Galileo also suffers in comparison with Montjeu. Montjeu had fewer National Hunt runners at 249, but has sired 8 horses rated 155 or above, headlined by Hurricane Fly on 173. To date sire sons of Montjeu have also achieved more than sons of Galileo in the National Hunt realm(eg Douvan, Min, Tiger Roll, Might Bite aka Does Bite) but that’s a discussion for another day. The fact that Galileo hasn’t sired good jumpers doesn’t mean that his sons won’t succeed, but it does create a doubt. Where there is doubt, you would expect caution but instead we have a reckless herd mentality on an almost unprecedented scale.

    2. Galileo’s National Hunt Stallion Sons are unproven

    Galileo has no proven, established National Hunt stallion sons. Mahler has made a good start (eg Chris’s Dream, Ornua) but not enough to warrant 227 mares in 2019. Soldier of Fortune attracted 275 mares in 2019 and 290 in 2018. That is a lot of faith to put in a stallion who still has to deliver a really top horse but who at least has Busted and Lord Gayle as his dams grand-sires.

    Displaying even more faith, but without a comparable female line or any racecourse evidence, were the 275 breeders who used Order of St George, the 225 who went to Idaho and the 190 mares who went to Telescope. That is around 1200 mares from those 5 sons of Galileo. Am I the only person who thinks this might be insane?

    3. The sheer scale of the problem

    Next season those five stallions will be joined by Leger winners Capri and Flag of Honour, who can both expect significant books. There are a host of others including Finsceal Fior, Imperial Monarch, Proconsul, Vendangeur, Sans Frontieres, Shantaram also in the marketplace. The total foal crop in the UK (4655) and Ireland (8788) in 2019 was 13,443 foals. In Britain it is estimated that 23% of the foal crop is intended as NH or dual purpose and in Ireland it is 48%. This would equate to 5,288 national hunt or dual purpose foals. We could be looking at over 1,700 or around one third of the National Hunt crop being by sons of Galileo.

    Conclusion:

    I’m sure that there will be many good horses sired by the sons of Galileo. The sheer weight of numbers make that almost inevitable. However, the percentages may be less than expected.

    No one is asking about the implications of having so many foals from the same sire line. Half of the foals will be fillies so we are the changing the National Hunt breed forever.

    French National Hunt breeding has outperformed the UK and Irish sectors over the past two decades. There are a lot of factors at play, but a willingness to embrace diversity in sire lines and smaller books that allow more stallions a chance have an impact. Irish breeders acting individually think they are being rational but the cumulative effect of their group-think could damage everyone in the National Hunt sector…

  • Henry Cecil- a belated tribute

    With the passing of Henry Cecil in June it is worth considering his place in the pantheon of the great trainers. It is also worth looking back on the subsequent impact of his runners in the breeding sheds.  Surprisingly, for such a successful trainer over such a long career, Henry trained very few important stallions.

    Ranking as a trainer

    As a ten time champion trainer, its obvious that Henry Cecil must take very high rank amongst the list of great trainers.  However for me, there are a few factors that temper my enthusiasm for ranking him anywhere near Vincent O’Brien, who is the benchmark for trainers.

    1. Firstly Henry had it easy. He came from a privileged background being a stepson of champion trainer and Royal trainer Cecil Boyd Rochfort and his early marriage to Julie Murless (daughter of another champion trainer and Royal trainer) meant he was quickly seated at racing’s top table.  His starting position would have taken others a decade or more to achieve.

    2. Apart from Wolver Hollow’s Eclipse in his first season his early years were underwhelming. A lot of tributes talk about Henry’s instinctive way with horses, however to me if there is nothing significant happening for a number of years it looks less like genius and more of a gradual tweaking of the same old methods used by others. Henry may have had a reputation for working his horses hard at Newmarket but he wasn’t much of an innovator in his methods. Gradual improvements in staff, methods and stock are a road map to training success but they are rooted in the ordinary rather than in genius.

    3. Henry largely ignored the rest of the world. Henry may have felt that British racing was the best in the world but in his heyday he spurned many opportunities for his runners overseas. His tally of two US wins (Yashmak  in 1997 and Midday in 2009) is very underwhelming given the relatively easy pickings available in the US for turf horses. His tally of 6 Irish classics is also less than one would expect.  In my view, his Anglo-centric approach didn’t do justice to his horses or his owners by ignoring the opportunities that were available throughout the world.

    4. He didn’t succeed with sprinters. I don’t know the reason for this but it is noticeable that he never trained a really top class sprinter and almost all of the big sprints are absent from his cv.

    Great Stallions trained by Henry

    none

    Very Good Stallions trained

    1. Kris (1976 Sharpen Up- Doubly Sure by Reliance).

    Kris was a superb miler who should have won the Guineas and won 14 of his 16 races. His first crop yielded the outstanding Cecil trained triple crown winner Oh So Sharp (1982 Kris ex Oh So Fair by Graustark). His second crop yielded Irish 2000 Guineas winner Flash of Steel (1983 Kris ex Spark of Fire by Run the Gauntlet). His final career stats show 75 black type winners from 846 foals, a very creditable 9% and include other Group 1 winners such as Shavian, Rafha and Balisada. However Kris is regarded as a fillies sire and no important sire sons have emerged to continue his male line.

    2. Diesis (1980 Sharpen Up- Doubly Sure by Reliance)

    A brother to Kris, Diesis was a brilliant two year old who achieved a rare Middle Park, Dewhurst double.  Like his brother he made an immediate impression with an outstanding filly in his first crop-namely Diminuendo (1985 Diesis ex Cacti by Tom Rolfe).  Other Oaks winners followed in Ramruma (1996 Diesis ex Princess of Man by Green God) and Love Divine (1997 Diesis ex La Sky by Law Society). However unlike his brother there was not the same sex bias amongst his offspring who ranged from sprinters such as Keen Hunter (1987 Diesis ex Love’s Reward by Nonoalco) to milers such as Docksider (1995 Diesis ex Pump by Forli) and superb 10 furlong performers in Halling (1991 Diesis ex Dance Machine by Green Dancer) and Elmaamul (1987 Diesis ex Modena by Roberto). His final stud statistics showed 82 black type winners from 1069 foals (8%) and his sire line is just barely hanging on through Muhtathir (a son of Elmaamul and sire of Doctor Dino) and Halling who  has a few sons at stud.

    Really Disappointing Stallions Trained by Henry

    1. Reference Point (1984 Mill Reef ex Home on the Range by Habitat)

    An above average Derby winner who won a Futurity at two and seemed to have the pedigree to succeed at stud.  He was very disappointing and his early death was not lamented by many breeders.

    2. Hello Gorgeous (1977 Mr Prospector ex Bonny Jet by Jet Jewel)

    As a winner of a Dante and Futurity (aka Racing Post Trophy) and a son of the new American sensation Mr Prospector, Hello Gorgeous proved popular at Coolmore and big money was paid for many of his early offspring. He was a disaster and led to a distrust of sons of Mr Prospector in Europe that took a long time to fade.  His final stats show 10 black type winners from 510 foals (2%).

    2. Old Vic (1986 Sadler’s Wells ex Cockade by Derring Do).

    From the first crop of Sadler’s Wells, Old Vic was a brilliant winner of the Irish and French Derby’s. Retired to Dalham Hall he was very disappointing as a flat sire before proving to be an exceptional jumps stallion.

    Mixed bag

    Of Henry’s other Derby winners, Oath (1996 Fairy King ex Sheer Audacity by Troy) and Commander in Chief(1990 Dancing Brave ex Slightly Dangerous by Roberto) found themselves in Japan and failed to make much impact.  Slip Anchor (1982 Shirley Heights ex Sayonara by Birkhahn) did reasonably well, but as a stamina source was never fashionable enough to attract sufficient high quality mares.

    National Hunt sires

    Henry was associated with many great stayers such as Le Moss (1975 Le Levanstall ex Feemoss by Ballymoss),  Ardross (1976 Run the Gauntlet ex Le Melody by Levmoss) and Buckskin (1973 Yelapa ex Bete A Bon Dieu by Herbager) . He trained a lot of other horses who also made names as national hunt stallions such as Gunner B (1973 Royal Gunner ex Sweet Councillor by Privy Councillor), Moscow Society (Nijinsky ex Afifa by Dewan). In addition to the previously mentioned leading jumps sire Old Vic, he also trained the King George winner King’s Theatre (1991 Sadler’s Wells ex Regal Beauty by Princely Native) who became champion NH sire.

    Conclusions

    Henry’s standing as a great trainer is not in doubt and only Michael Stoute has stronger claims to be regarded as the outstanding British trainer of the modern era. A trainers job is to train horses for the racecourse and he has no influence on whether they succeed as stallions. It is of no relevance to Henry’s standing as a trainer that he was not associated with any horses who proved to be great stallions. It is just one of those statistical curiosities. His  success as a trainer of stayers inevitably meant that he was associated with horses who ended up earning their oats as national hunt stallions. Henry’s greatest project, Frankel is now embarking on his stud career and he has every prospect of success, so there could yet be a great stallion associated with the Cecil name.