MONTJEU.COM

An Independent View of the Bloodstock World

Tag: Sadler’s Wells

  • Galileo, Groupthink, National Hunt Breeding And A New Heresy….

    Back in 1633, Galileo was convicted of heresy for his espousal of the heliocentric view of the universe. He was sentenced to house arrest which lasted until his death in 1642.

    Sadler’s Wells transformed National Hunt breeding, so breeders seem to assume that Galileo will do the same. Here is my heresy; when it comes to National Hunt breeding, I don’t believe in Galileo… The Catholic Church admitted it was wrong in 1992. I wonder if it will take as long to admit to a mistake by National Hunt breeders?

    Grounds for Concern:

    1. Sadler’s Wells was a great sire of jumpers, Galileo isn’t.

    Looking at Racing Post Ratings, from 294 runners over jumps, Galileo has sired just two runners rated over 155, Celestial Halo on 167 and Supasundae on 165 . In contrast from 362 runners, Sadler’s Wells has 11 runners including the imperious Istabraq on 181, Synchronized on 171, Pridwell on 169, Essex on 165 and Theatreworld on 164 .

    Galileo also suffers in comparison with Montjeu. Montjeu had fewer National Hunt runners at 249, but has sired 8 horses rated 155 or above, headlined by Hurricane Fly on 173. To date sire sons of Montjeu have also achieved more than sons of Galileo in the National Hunt realm(eg Douvan, Min, Tiger Roll, Might Bite aka Does Bite) but that’s a discussion for another day. The fact that Galileo hasn’t sired good jumpers doesn’t mean that his sons won’t succeed, but it does create a doubt. Where there is doubt, you would expect caution but instead we have a reckless herd mentality on an almost unprecedented scale.

    2. Galileo’s National Hunt Stallion Sons are unproven

    Galileo has no proven, established National Hunt stallion sons. Mahler has made a good start (eg Chris’s Dream, Ornua) but not enough to warrant 227 mares in 2019. Soldier of Fortune attracted 275 mares in 2019 and 290 in 2018. That is a lot of faith to put in a stallion who still has to deliver a really top horse but who at least has Busted and Lord Gayle as his dams grand-sires.

    Displaying even more faith, but without a comparable female line or any racecourse evidence, were the 275 breeders who used Order of St George, the 225 who went to Idaho and the 190 mares who went to Telescope. That is around 1200 mares from those 5 sons of Galileo. Am I the only person who thinks this might be insane?

    3. The sheer scale of the problem

    Next season those five stallions will be joined by Leger winners Capri and Flag of Honour, who can both expect significant books. There are a host of others including Finsceal Fior, Imperial Monarch, Proconsul, Vendangeur, Sans Frontieres, Shantaram also in the marketplace. The total foal crop in the UK (4655) and Ireland (8788) in 2019 was 13,443 foals. In Britain it is estimated that 23% of the foal crop is intended as NH or dual purpose and in Ireland it is 48%. This would equate to 5,288 national hunt or dual purpose foals. We could be looking at over 1,700 or around one third of the National Hunt crop being by sons of Galileo.

    Conclusion:

    I’m sure that there will be many good horses sired by the sons of Galileo. The sheer weight of numbers make that almost inevitable. However, the percentages may be less than expected.

    No one is asking about the implications of having so many foals from the same sire line. Half of the foals will be fillies so we are the changing the National Hunt breed forever.

    French National Hunt breeding has outperformed the UK and Irish sectors over the past two decades. There are a lot of factors at play, but a willingness to embrace diversity in sire lines and smaller books that allow more stallions a chance have an impact. Irish breeders acting individually think they are being rational but the cumulative effect of their group-think could damage everyone in the National Hunt sector…

  • When is a stallion past their prime?

    Older Sires are treated with suspicion

    Ageism : noun “prejudice or discrimination on the basis of age”

    In the bloodstock world, there is often a suspicion of any stallion out of their teens. Supporting this theory, a friend recently mentioned that even Sadler’s Wells had no Group 1 winner from his last three crops. Is this just coincidence (and a very small sample size) or are older sires less effective? A quick internet search, didn’t reveal any serious research on the subject (please let me know if I missed something). Without proper data, we are in the realms of speculation but I am happy to speculate….

    My own thoughts are as follows:

    • Perceptions matter and if people doubt older stallions, then it could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.  Owners of high quality mares may be wary of visiting older stallions and this well lead to weaker crops, reduced success and ‘prove’ the theory.
    • Owners of high quality mares may be wary of visiting older stallions if their fertility is lower. Their is a natural decline in fertility as stallions age, so it could be a legitimate risk aversion to ensure the best chance of getting their mares in foal. However again the behaviour of the mare owners will end up ‘proving’ the theory.
    • Owners of high quality mares may be wary of visiting older stallions not because they doubt them but because they worry that many buyers have that bias against older sires. Breeders can’t ignore the marketplace. Again a weaker book will lead to less success on the track.
    • If the market does reduce the value of the offspring of older sires then those offspring will tend to go to fewer top end trainers. This could reduce the actual level of success.

    • Older stallions are probably covering a number of older mares who are trying to replicate a previously successful mating with that stallion. We do know that the progeny of older mares (specifically mares who have had more foals) are less successful than younger mares (albeit not as much of a difference as some people think). If a stallion covered the same 100 mares for ten consecutive years, I would expect a decrease in the number of stakes performers in the later crops due to the ageing of the mares, not the ageing of the stallion.
    • Later crops by stallions are competing against grandchildren of the same stallion. This years St Leger was a good example as Galileo’s best finisher was the third place horse, Nayef Road. The first two places were filled by his grandsons in Logician (by Frankel) and Sir Ron Priestley (by Australia). Similarly, when Galileo sired the first three home in the 2006 St Leger (Sixties Icon, The Last Drop and Red Rocks) the next two home were sons of Sadler’s Wells in Ask and Tusculum).
    • As for Sadler’s Wells last few crops, it is true that his success dimmed near the end. However, it is also worth remembering that Sadler’s Wells himself was part of a crop of 31 foals by Northern Dancer in 1981- so Northern Dancer was 20 when they were born. From those 31 foals there was Sadler’s Wells, El Gran Senor, Secreto and Northern Trick so not bad for an old sire! Mr Prospector also did well in his latter years- his only Kentucky Derby winner, Fusaichi Pegasus, was born when Mr Prospector was 27.

    Conclusion: Without proper data, it’s hard to be dogmatic on the subject. A simple crop by crop analysis with the percentage of black type winners in each crop isn’t sufficient. The quality and age of the mares in each crop would also have to be included in calculations. In humans, research on the children of older fathers shows some negative correlations so it is plausible that this would apply in horses also. If there is a negative correlation in horses, I think it would be slight and might perhaps be overestimated by the market. If that is the case, there could be some value to be had at the sales. One man’s prejudice, can be another man’s opportunity…….

  • Can you have too much of a good thing?

    Frankel’s first foal was born on the 11th of January.  The dam Chrysanthemum was a Group 3 winner trained by David Wachman for Coolmore connections. In truth, in terms of racing performance and pedigree Chrysanthemum was no more than a middle ranking member of Frankel’s stellar first book of mares.

    However what is far more interesting is the pedigree cross it represents.  We are by now, well used to seeing variants of the  Sadler’s Wells (and sons) by Danehill cross , the cross that reached its pinnacle with Frankel himself. It has proved hugely successful with Galileo alone having sired  8 Group 1 winners out of Danehill mares. Chrysanthemum is by Danehill Dancer out of a daughter of Sadler’s Wells and it begs the question can you have too much of a good thing?

    Sadler’s Wells and Danehill are the giant names of European breeding in recent decades. Coolmore achieved considerable success with the likes of Horatio Nelson (Danehill ex Imagine), Peeping Fawn (Danehill ex Maryinsky and Chevalier (Danehill ex Legend Maker) bred on this cross.  Given the number of high class broodmares they possess with both names in the pedigree it is perhaps unsurprising that they are considering doubling up what has worked in the past.

    They would have been encourage by the results to date for Teofilo (Galileo ex Speirbhean by Danehill) who is similarly bred to Frankel. Teofilo has made a good start to his stud career highlighted by Group 1 success for Parish Hall  (ex Halla Siamsa by Montjeu) and Irish Derby success  with Trading Leather who is out of a Sinndar mare and thus has another cross of Danzig as does Voleuse Des Coeurs (ex Vadorga by Grand Lodge). This new foal is just gone a little further in terms of duplication.

    This foal will have Sadler’s Wells 3X3, and Danehill 3X3.  In the first 6 generations Northern Dancer’s name appears 5 times and he appears once more in the 7th generation. Given that Danehill features 2 crosses of Northern Dancer’s dam Natalma, her name appears 8 times in the pedigree! If this was  a human we would be appalled, even if it was a pedigree dog we would be concerned yet when it comes to our friends the thoroughbreds we just think it’s interesting!  As regards the question, whether you can have too much of a good thing,  we will obviously just have to wait until he finishes his racecourse career to answer that one…

    Frankel's first foal
    6 generation pedigree

  • Sadler’s Wells- a tribute

    It’s almost a month since Sadler’s Wells died.  He was outstanding in every respect as racehorse, as a sire, as a broodmare sire and now as a sire of sires.  A book would be required to do proper justice to his impact (and I don’t have time for that) , so I will have to restrict myself to selecting a few of his more remarkable achievements, listed in no particular order

    1. That first crop of colts.

    In total his first crop  was numbered in the mid fifties of which just less than half were colts.  For six of them (In the Wings (ex High Hawk by Shirley Heights) , Old Vic (ex Cockade by Derring-Do), Prince of Dance(ex Sun Princess by English Prince) , Scenic ( ex Idyllic by Foolish Pleasure) , French Glory (ex Dunette by Hard to Beat) and Braashee ex Krakow by Malinowski) to win Group 1’s is extraordinary.  Batshoof (ex Steel Habit by Habitat) was also in that crop and he won the Tattersalls Rogers Gold Cup and Prince Of Wales Stakes which were both then Group 2’s but are now elevated to Group 1 status.  Dolpour (ex Dumka by Kashmir) won the Group 3 Gordon Richard Stakes and was only beaten a head in the Champion Stakes. In addition the unraced Accordion (ex Sound of Success by Successor)  subsequently found fame as a jumps sire. It was the most sensational first crop that could be imagined.

    2. His Consistency

    Its not easy becoming champion sire even with the benefit of large books of quality mares.  Sadler’s Wells was champion Anglo-Irish sire on 14 occasions- an all time record.  That Highflyer’s previous record had stood since the 18th century gives a sense of that achievement.  That he sired at least one Group 1 winner in each of his first 18 crops is also truly remarkable. His numbers currently stand at 2259 foals of racing age with 293 stakes winners (13%).

    3. His Irish Derby Record

    Sadler’s Wells has sired the winner of every Irish and English classic. His record in the Irish Derby is however particularly impressive. Six winners (Old Vic ex Cockade by Derring-Do), Salsabil (ex Flame of Tara by Artaius), Dream Well (ex Soul Dream by Alleged),  Montjeu (ex Floripedes by Top Ville),  Galileo (ex Urban Sea by Miswaki) and High Chapparal (ex Kasora by Darshaan) only tell part of the story. The 1999 edition saw him have a 1-2-3 courtesy of Montjeu, Daliapour (ex Dalara by Doyoun) and Tchaikovsky (ex Crystal Spray by Beldale Flutter) and this was bettered in 2002 when High Chapparal was followed home by Sholokhov (ex La Meilleure by Lord Gayle), Ballingarry (ex Flamenco Wave by Desert Wine) and Nysaean (ex Irish Arms by Irish River). His sons have kept up the good work with In the Wings siring the 1995 winner Winged Love (ex J’ai deux Amores by Top Ville), Galileo siring the 2007 winner Soldier of Fortune (ex Affianced by Erin’s Isle) and the 2010 winner Cape Blanco (ex Laurel Delight by Presidium) and Montjeu has 3 winners courtesy of Hurricane Run (ex Hold On by Surumu), Frozen Fire (ex Flamingo Sea by Woodman) and Fame and Glory (ex Gryada by Shirley Heights).

    4. His record as sire of sires

    This was once open to question- it is not any more.  Galileo has taken over his mantle as the dominant European sire and Montjeu remains the sire most likely to sire a 12 furlong Derby winner.  Barathea and In the Wings did respectably, Fort Wood produced some outstanding individuals in South Africa,  High Chapparal has done exceptionally well in the Antipodes and most surprisingly of all was the success of El Prado in the US- surprising given the abject failure of Sadler’s Wells own offspring when tried on dirt. In addition his sons such as Old Vic, Accordion, Oscar, King’s Theatre, Dr Massini and Kayf Tara have all had a major impact on the National Hunt world.

    5. His National Hunt Record

    Sadler’s Wells was an outstanding jumps sire.  Istabraq (ex Betty’s Secret by Secretariat) is of course one of the immortals but he was backed up by Theatreworld(ex Chamonis by Affirmed), Pridwell (ex Glowing with Pride by Ile de Bourbon), Synchronised (ex Mayasta by Bob Back) and many others that have seen him consistently feature in the top ten jumps sires.

    6. His record as broodmare sire

    Six times champion broodmare sire, to date he has 235 stakes winners in that capacity -more than any other sire in the history of the pattern.  Some of the multiple Group 1 winners produced by his daughters include Workforce (King’s Best ex Soviet Moon) , Conduit(Dalakhani ex Well Ahead), Music Note (AP Indy ex Note Musicale,  Henrythenavigator (Kingmambo ex Seqoyah). Youmzain (Sinndar ex Sadima),  Peeping Fawn (Danehill ex Maryinsky),  Divine Proportions (Kingmambo ex Myth to Reality), American Post (Bering ex Wells Fargo), Whipper (Miesque’s Son ex Myth to Reality), and Musical Chimes (In Excess ex Note Musicale).

    7.  Leading the European renaissance

    It’s easy to forget that at the time of his retirement, Europe was not the natural home for a top class stallion prospect. His contemporaries and paternal half brothers El Gran Senor and Secreto both went to stud in the States. The lure of the dollar and the yen meant that Europe had already lost or could no longer retain the best stallion prospects.  The best mares inevitably follow the best stallions leading to a further downward spiral. The success of Sadler’s Wells and his earnings put Coolmore in a very powerful position with regard to stallion acquisition and they utilised that advantage to the maximum.  His sons have continued that legacy- it is not unreasonable to claim that he can take credit for the current powerful state of the European stallion ranks.